测量标准不确定度的精度评定及应用

测量不确定度的Ａ类下精度受测量次数多少的影响，并由二次标准差来评定，因此，对于高精度测量，测量不确定度的影响不能忽视，本文对此进行了论述。     

卫星对动能拦截器的一种规避策略

为了解决卫星对逆轨来袭动能拦截器的末段防御问题,提出了一种卫星轨道机动规避策略。首先建立了拦截器攻击区的概念,分析了攻击区的特性,具体推导了攻击区的估算方法。在此基础上,根据卫星机动对拦截器攻击区的影响,提出了卫星的轨道机动规避策略。最后,对所提出的攻击区估算方法和卫星轨道机动规避策略进行了仿真验证。仿真结果表明,在拦截器推进剂充足和滚动角稳定值已知的条件下,所提出的攻击区估算方法比较准确;卫星的轨道机动规避策略有效可行。所提出的规避策略对处于攻击区内不可逃逸圆外的卫星,可以保证其以最短的机动时间成功规避拦截器的攻击,对处于不可逃逸圆内的卫星,也可以保证其具有最大的成功规避概率。     

悬挂发射装置的总体设计方法研究

以高压气体作为弹射能源为思路，研究了悬挂发射装置的动作过程和运动规律，提出了一套新型悬挂发射装置的设计方法。对近年来逐步发展的现代设计方法如何在悬挂发射装置设计中推广应用，指导新型悬挂发射装置研制的全过程作了阐述。本文考虑多种因素的影响，应用变质量系统的能量方程和牛顿第二定律建立气压传动装置的数学模型；将拉氏方法和机构动力学引入弹射机构装置的数学建模中，在求解考虑管壁摩擦和截面积变化的准一维非定常流守恒型方程组时采用算子分裂技巧来构造差分格式，本文将小波分析中奇异性检测理论应用到结构优化，对基于系统仿真技术的动力学参数，结构尺寸，气源参数和导弹重量等进行多目标全面优化，将小波分析中非线笥浮动阈值去噪理论应用到含噪试验的数据处理中，取得比传统降噪滤波及一般的小波和小波包逆变换重建信号更好的效果；将模糊数学理论应用到系统的可靠性分析和综合评判中，可以更好地完善系统的设计方案，运用弹射投放性能测试技术对悬挂发射装置的设计方案进行了试验验证。     

RAD-7测氡仪检定结果不确定度的评定

依据量值传递关系,列举了量值传递中的数学模型;依据数学模型,介绍了测氡仪检定结果不确定度的评定方法;结合JJG 825—2013《测氡仪检定规程》RAD-7的检定,评定出了RAD-7测氡仪检定结果体积活度响应的相对合成标准不确定度;结果表明,检定结果的不确定度主要受氡从液体镭源转移过程和被检仪器计数能力的影响。     

重大科研项目的风险管理方法

阐述了科研项目风险及风险管理的概念,分析了重大科研项目风险管理的主要内容,包括风险规划、风险评估、风险处理和风险监控,针对一类科研项目,提出了需要重视的8个关键风险区,并对加强科研项目的风险管理提出了3条具体的措施建议。     

数据采集系统直流增益和线性度的精确评价

介绍了两种新的精确评价数据采集系统的直流增益和线性度的方法与过程,即“按码精确评价法”和“定间距（为量化误差整数倍）精确评价法”。同时讨论了介绍了的优缺点及应用。     

Toward understanding the active SETI debate: Insights from risk communication and perception

Insights from the robust field of risk communication and perception have to date been almost totally absent from the policy debate regarding the relative risks and merits of Active SETI or Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence (METI). For many years, the practice (or proposed practice) of Active SETI has generated a vigorous and sometimes heated policy debate within the scientific community. There have also been some negative reactions in the media toward the activities of those engaged in Active SETI. Risk communication is a scientific approach to communication regarding situations involving potentially sensitive or controversial situations in which there may be high public concern and low public trust. The discipline has found wide acceptance and utility in fields such as public health, industrial regulation and environmental protection. Insights from the scientific field of risk communication (such as omission bias, loss aversion, the availability heuristic, probability neglect, and the general human preference for voluntary over involuntary risks) may help those who have participated in either side of the debate over Active SETI to better understand why the debate has taken on this posture. Principles of risk communication and risk perception may also help those engaged in Active SETI to communicate more effectively with other scientists, the public, with the media, and with policy makers regarding their activities and to better understand and respond to concerns expressed regarding the activity.     

基于正外部性的我国农业保险问题透析

农业保险的准公共产品属性导致农业保险存在正外部性，以及由此而导致的近年来我国农业保险业务的萎缩，所以，完全商业化农业保险失灵，解决问题的根本出路在于建立“政府财政补贴推进，商业化运作”的模式，重点突出财政补贴方式，并伴随农业风险基金的建立，撑开农业保险这把大伞，保证农业经济稳定健康发展。     

多航天器协同探测星簇构型探测效能的评价方法

为定量评估不同星簇构型设计的探测效能以进行各航天器的轨道设计,基于空间四面体构型的体张量定义,分析现有空间四面体构型的评价参量,并采用将空间五航天器构型分解为“五个四面体”和“主四面体加第五点问题”这两种方法定量评价空间五点协同探测星簇构型的探测效能。最后利用项目组已有的五个航天器在一个轨道周期内的模拟轨道数据对所提出的方法进行仿真,结果表明所提出的方法可以较好地评价空间五点构型的探测效能。     

On the effect of considering more realistic particle shape and mass parameters in MMOD risk assessments

One of the primary mission risks tracked in the development of all spacecraft is that due to micro-meteoroids and orbital debris (MMOD). Both types of particles, especially those larger than 0.1 mm in diameter, contain sufficient kinetic energy due to their combined mass and velocities to cause serious damage to crew members and spacecraft. The process used to assess MMOD risk consists of three elements: environment, damage prediction, and damage tolerance. Orbital debris risk assessments for the Orion vehicle, as well as the Shuttle, Space Station and other satellites use ballistic limit equations (BLEs) that have been developed using high speed impact test data and results from numerical simulations that have used spherical projectiles. However, spheres are not expected to be a common shape for orbital debris; rather, orbital debris fragments might be better represented by other regular or irregular solids. In this paper we examine the general construction of NASA’s current orbital debris (OD) model, explore the potential variations in orbital debris mass and shape that are possible when using particle characteristic length to define particle size (instead of assuming spherical particles), and, considering specifically the Orion vehicle, perform an orbital debris risk sensitivity study taking into account variations in particle mass and shape as noted above. While the results of the work performed for this study are preliminary, they do show that continuing to use aluminum spheres in spacecraft risk assessments could result in an over-design of its MMOD protection systems. In such a case, the spacecraft could be heavier than needed, could cost more than needed, and could cost more to put into orbit than needed. The results obtained in this study also show the need to incorporate effects of mass and shape in mission risk assessment prior to first flight of any spacecraft as well as the need to continue to develop/refine BLEs so that they more accurately reflect the shape and material density variations inherent to the actual debris environment.