复杂装备研制项目的风险源识别

大型复杂装备研制项目高风险与参研单位多的特点使得研制过程中风险传导时有发生。针对风险传导要素风险源的识别问题,提出了一种基于关联规则(AR)与决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)的风险源识别方法。该方法从数据挖掘的角度,先求解出风险类型与风险因素的关联规则,再求解出风险源之间的影响程度,最后通过DEMATEL得到各风险源相关参数。并且对某参研单位数据库中某阶段的数据用此方法完成了风险源的识别,识别结果显示了各风险类型对应的风险源以及易导致研制项目发生风险传导的风险源。     

An ECR-PCR rule for fusion of evidences defined on a non-exclusive framework of discernment

In the research of uncertain information processing, Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) provides a framework for dealing with uncertain information, where evidence is defined on a Frame of Discernment (FOD) consisting of mutually exclusive elements. However, the requirement of exclusiveness on FOD sometimes is not satisfied, as shown in Dezert-Smarandache Theory(DSmT), a derivative of DST. In DSmT, the non-exclusiveness is expressed by propositions’ intersection and the fusion of evidence is realized through a Proportional Conflict Redistribution (PCR) rule. In order to handle non-exclusive FODs, a new framework called D Number Theory (DNT) has been proposed recently, which quantifies the non-exclusive degree between propositions different from DSmT. In previous studies, an Exclusive Conflict Redistribution (ECR) rule has been designed in DNT to implement the fusion of evidence defined on a non-exclusive FOD, but there are some deficiencies in the ECR rule. In this paper, a new rule called ECR-PCR rule is proposed by combining the ECR and PCR rules to better implement the fusion of evidence defined on a non-exclusive FOD. Within the proposed rule, the definition of conflict utilizes the idea of ECR’s exclusive conflict, and the disposal of conflict is following the idea of PCR’s proportional redistribution. Properties of the ECR-PCR rule are presented. The effectiveness of the proposed new rule is verified through numerical examples and applications, in comparison with other fusion methods.     

On the evidential reasoning rule for dependent evidence combination

Evidential Reasoning (ER) rule, which can combine multiple pieces of independent evidence conjunctively, is widely applied in multiple attribute decision analysis. However, the assumption of independence among evidence is often not satisfied, resulting in ER rule inapplicable. In this paper, an Evidential Reasoning rule for Dependent Evidence combination (ERr-DE) is developed. Firstly, the aggregation sequence of multiple pieces of evidence is determined according to evidence reliability. On this basis, a calculation method of evidence Relative Total Dependence Coefficient (RTDC) is proposed using the distance correlation method. Secondly, as a discounting factor, RTDC is introduced into the ER rule framework, and the ERr-DE model is formulated. The aggregation process of two pieces of dependent evidence by ERr-DE is investigated, which is then generalized to aggregate multiple pieces of non-independent evidence. Thirdly, sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the relationship between the model output and the RTDC. The properties of sensitivity coefficient are explored and mathematically proofed. The conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process of ERr-DE and the properties of sensitivity coefficient are verified by two numerical examples respectively. Finally, the practical application of the ERr-DE is validated by a case study on the performance assessment of satellite turntable system.     

A new interpretable fault diagnosis method based on belief rule base and probability table

It is vital to establish an interpretable fault diagnosis model for critical equipment. Belief Rule Base (BRB) is an interpretable expert system gradually applied in fault diagnosis. However, the expert knowledge cannot be utilized to establish the initial BRB accurately if there are multiple referential grades in different fault features. In addition, the interpretability of BRB-based fault diagnosis is destroyed in the optimization process, which reflects in two aspects: deviation from the initial expert judgment and over-optimization of parameters. To solve these problems, a new interpretable fault diagnosis model based on BRB and probability table, called the BRB-P, is proposed in this paper. Compared with the traditional BRB, the BRB-P constructed by the probability table is more accurate. Then, the interpretability constraints, i.e., the credibility of expert knowledge, the penalty factor and the rule-activation factor, are inserted into the projection covariance matrix adaption evolution strategy to maintain the interpretability of BRB-P. A case study of the aerospace relay is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

一种可靠性增长试验抽样数Max-Min准则的反馈修正方法

对成败型航空发动机部件可靠性增长试验抽样数的确定问题进行了研究。推导出了初始故障数服从典型离散分布时的最小化最大准则(Max-Min准则),提出了一种逐次抽样样本估计值反馈修正方法。最后给出了一个应用实例,验证了该方法的有效性。     

A novel combination belief rule base model for mechanical equipment fault diagnosis

Due to the excellent performance in complex systems modeling under small samples and uncertainty, Belief Rule Base(BRB) expert system has been widely applied in fault diagnosis. However, the fault diagnosis process for complex mechanical equipment normally needs multiple attributes, which can lead to the rule number explosion problem in BRB, and limit the efficiency and accuracy. To solve this problem, a novel Combination Belief Rule Base(C-BRB) model based on Directed Acyclic Graph(DAG) structu...