航空运行风险的灰色神经网络模型

采用灰色神经网络的方法,建立了中国民航运行风险的非线性在线模型.模型以风险监测指标作为输入,以评价民航安全的综合指数作为输出,编写了模型计算软件进行仿真计算.计算结果表明,模型预测值与实际安全综合指数值吻合较好,验证了方法的正确性.利用该模型既可以确定风险监测指标中的主要影响指标,为民航降低运行风险提出合理的建议;又可以对民航安全的综合指数进行分析,为行业的安全运行提供预警.      

Visually supported reasoning under uncertain conditions: Effects of domain expertise on air traffic risk assessment

This article investigates the impact that domain expertise has on risk assessment when analyzing uncertain geographical and sensor data. The differences between novice and expert air traffic operators were examined taking into account the performance of identifying and classifying threatening targets, the time needed to carry out such classifications, and the confidence reported for each decision. The results show that confidence was significantly higher for the expert group. This was supported by the after-test questionnaire because none of the novice participants reported being more confident with the visualizations of uncertainty provided. No significant differences regarding time and performance were found between the groups, even if experts needed, on average, more time to make a decision. Based on the collected logs, the experienced participants more often accessed the detailed information for each object presented by the tool tip. Both the time taken and the data accessed might indicate that experts had better situation awareness. Finally, the experts reported higher workload values related to performance.     

风险管理与人的失误控制

本文详细研究了风险管理与人的失误控制中的关键问题，讨论了系统设计、运行和维护中的风险管理和各种影响因素。针对人的失误这一复杂而又难以对付的问题做了深入的分析研究，提出了容错设计和概念和设计框架，给出处理人的失误的方法。     

多目标随机决策分析的IRGSD—FDⅡ方法

本文就多目标随机决策问题,通过引进一种新的解的概念——目标满足度β与约束可行度α协调解,简称(α,β)一协调解。提出了一种决策方法——交互式参考目标满足度与可行度方法Ⅱ(IRGSD—FDⅡ),并讨论了这一方法在研究开发(R&D)项目选择问题中的应用。这一方法的基本步骤包括:替代问题的产生;决策者初始约束可行度α、目标满足度β及目标参考水平q的确定;反映决策者偏好的多属性效用函数的估计;替代目标函数的重新定义和求解;与决策者的对话;最佳(α,β)协调解的获得等等。     

优化资源配置,加速大学作为人才项目的孵化器建设--大学生创新能力培养计划的实践保障思索之一

通过对大学生创新计划实施项目的方向性、资金保障、项目的可行性、成果预期等方面的分析，并阐述了目前存在的困难，提出并展望了大学生创新活动蕴含的机遇和前景。     

随机网络仿真分析法在交通运输中的应用

本文就多个城市间建立交通运输线的课题应用随机网络技术(VERT-3)构建了一个较大的仿真模型。该模型具备强有力的逻辑判断功能和路线选择功能,并具备一定的通用性。课题仿真已通过计算机运算。结论表明,VERT-3技术具有处理较大型课题的能力。     

我国空间站工程量化风险评价工作探讨

为适应我国载人航天任务的新特点,有效支持空间站量化风险评价工作,调研了美国国家航空航天局（NASA）载人登月、国际空间站、航天飞机等载人航天项目的概率风险评价（PRA）工作,对比分析了PRA方法在不同载人航天项目中的应用效果。在此基础上,针对我国空间站工程的特点,初步提出了基于PRA的空间站工程量化风险评价方案与工作思路,对该方法在我国空间站实施所存在的问题进行了分析,并在方法规范、数据收集等方面提出了工作建议,为我国空间站量化风险评估工作提供技术支持。     

复杂装备研制项目的风险源识别

大型复杂装备研制项目高风险与参研单位多的特点使得研制过程中风险传导时有发生。针对风险传导要素风险源的识别问题,提出了一种基于关联规则(AR)与决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)的风险源识别方法。该方法从数据挖掘的角度,先求解出风险类型与风险因素的关联规则,再求解出风险源之间的影响程度,最后通过DEMATEL得到各风险源相关参数。并且对某参研单位数据库中某阶段的数据用此方法完成了风险源的识别,识别结果显示了各风险类型对应的风险源以及易导致研制项目发生风险传导的风险源。     

An experimental method to obtain the hard alpha anomaly distribution for titanium alloy aeroengine disks

A probability-based damage tolerance methodology has been proposed to improve the recognition of material anomalies, especially hard alpha (TiN) anomalies for aeroengine rotor disks. A key input to this method is hard alpha anomaly distribution, which reflects the occurrence rate and size of anomalies present in the finished part material of titanium rotors. Since anomalies rarely occur naturally, an experimental method is proposed to obtain the anomaly distribution for titanium alloy aeroengine disks to reflect and equivalently replace the manufacturing development in titanium industry. In general, the anomaly distribution information can be divided into two parts: the Probability of Detection (POD) curve and the detected anomaly distribution, which contains the size and frequency data of the detected anomalies. The distribution can be established based on several appropriate assumptions and derivation steps with different confidence levels of POD curves and detected anomaly distributions. In this case, the distribution can be obtained in a relatively short time as a key input to the probability-based damage tolerance methodology. Then the Probability of Failure (POF) can be calculated, and the value is found to vary with different confidence levels. On this basis, the conservative estimated POF can be obtained in conjunction with confidence levels.