导弹撞地概率对参数选择的影响

研究了巡航导弹的撞地概率和系统参数选择的关系问题。首先在考虑了地形随机输入和低空风随机干扰共同作用的情况下，推导了撞地概率的计算方法。其次以导弹主要参数（ａ２４和Ｋｈ）的选择为例，在给定条件下求出了它们和撞地概率的关系曲线，并分析了它们对撞地概率的影响。研究结果表明，协调选择ａ２４和Ｋｈ等参数，能有效降低撞地概率，提高巡航导弹的作战效能。     

Study of ionospheric D region changes during solar flares using MF radar measurements

During solar flares, the X-ray radiation suddenly increases, resulting in an increase in the electron density of the atmospheric D region and a strong absorption of short-wave radio waves. Based on Langfang medium frequency (MF) radar, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of D region in the lower ionosphere from 62 km to 82 km. The analysis focused on multiple C-level and M-level solar flare events before and after the large-scale flare event at 11:53 (UT) on September 6, 2017. The results show that it is difficult to detect the electron density over 70 km in Langfang during solar flares, but the electron density value can be obtained as low as 62 km, and the stronger the flare intensity, the lower the detectable electron density height. Besides, the equal electron density height, the received power of X and O waves will also be significantly reduced during the flares, and the reduction of equal electron density height has a weak linear relationship with flare intensity.     

Modeling and analysis of mover gaps in tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motors

A tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motor (TMMLOM) has merits of high efficiency and excellent dynamic capability. To enhance the thrust performance, quasi-Halbach permanent magnet (PM) arrays are arranged on its mover in the application of a linear electro-hydrostatic actuator in more electric aircraft. The arrays are assembled by several individual segments, which lead to gaps between them inevitably. To investigate the effects of the gaps on the radial magnetic flux density and the machine thrust in this paper, an analytical model is built considering both axial and radial gaps. The model is validated by finite element simulations and experimental results. Distributions of the magnetic flux are described in condition of different sizes of radial and axial gaps. Besides, the output force is also discussed in normal and end windings. Finally, the model has demonstrated that both kinds of gaps have a negative effect on the thrust, and the linear motor is more sensitive to radial ones.     

Thermosphere densities derived from Swarm GPS observations

After the detection of many anomalies in the Swarm accelerometer data, an alternative method has been developed to determine thermospheric densities for the three-satellite mission. Using a precise orbit determination approach, non-gravitational and aerodynamic-only accelerations are estimated from the high-quality Swarm GPS data. The GPS-derived non-gravitational accelerations serve as a baseline for the correction of the Swarm-C along-track accelerometer data. The aerodynamic accelerations are converted directly into thermospheric densities for all Swarm satellites, albeit at a much lower temporal resolution than the accelerometers would have been able to deliver. The resulting density and acceleration data sets are part of the European Space Agency Level 2 Swarm products.To improve the Swarm densities, two modifications have recently been added to our original processing scheme. They consist of a more refined handling of radiation pressure accelerations and the use of a high-fidelity satellite geometry and improved aerodynamic model. These modifications lead to a better agreement between estimated Swarm densities and NRLMSISE-00 model densities. The GPS-derived Swarm densities show variations due to solar and geomagnetic activity, as well as seasonal, latitudinal and diurnal variations. For low solar activity, however, the aerodynamic signal experienced by the Swarm satellites is very small, and therefore it is more difficult to accurately resolve latitudinal density variability using GPS data, especially for the higher-flying Swarm-B satellite. Therefore, mean orbit densities are also included in the Swarm density product.     

A comparative study of ionospheric IRIEup and ISP assimilative models during some intense and severe geomagnetic storms

Three-dimensional (3-D) electron density matrices, computed in the Mediterranean area by the IRI climatological model and IRIEup and ISP nowcasting models, during some intense and severe geomagnetic-ionospheric storms, were ingested by the ray tracing software tool IONORT, to synthesize quasi-vertical ionograms. IRIEup model was run in different operational modes: (1) assimilating validated autoscaled electron density profiles only from a limited area which, in our case, is the Mediterranean sector (IRIEup_re(V) mode); (2) assimilating electron density profiles from a larger region including several stations spread across Europe: (a) without taking care of validating the autoscaled data in the assimilation process (IRIEup(NV)); (b) validating carefully the autoscaled electron density profiles before their assimilation (IRIEup(V)).The comparative analysis was carried out comparing IRI, IRIEup_re(V), ISP, IRIEup(NV), and IRIEup(V) foF2 synthesized values, with corresponding foF2 measurements autoscaled by ARTIST, and then validated, at the truth sites of Roquetes (40.80°N, 0.50°E, Spain), San Vito (40.60°N, 17.80°E, Italy), Athens (38.00°N, 23.50°E, Greece), and Nicosia, (35.03°N, 33.16°E, Cyprus). The outcomes demonstrate that: (1) IRIEup_re(V), performs better than ISP in the western Mediterranean (around Roquetes); (2) ISP performs slightly better than IRIEup_re(V) in the central part of Mediterranean (around Athens and San Vito); (3) ISP performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one in the eastern Mediterranean (around Nicosia); (4) IRIEup(NV) performance is worse than the IRIEup(V) one; (5) in the central Mediterranean area, IRIEup(V) performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one, and it is practically the same for the western and eastern sectors.Concerning the overall performance, nowcasting models proved to be considerably more reliable than the climatological IRI model to represent the ionosphere behaviour during geomagnetic-ionospheric storm conditions; ISP and IRIEup(V) provided the best performance, but neither of them has clearly prevailed over the other one.     

Electron density inversed by plasma lines induced by suprathermal electron in the ionospheric modification experiment

Incoherent scatter radar (ISR) is the most powerful ground-based measurement facility to study the ionosphere. The plasma lines are not routinely detected by the incoherent scatter radar due to the low intensity, which falls below the measured spectral noise level of the incoherent scatter radar. The plasma lines are occasionally enhanced by suprathermal electrons through the Landau damping process and detectable to the incoherent scatter radar. In this study, by using the European Incoherent Scatter Association (EISCAT) UHF incoherent scatter radar, the experiment observation presents that the enhanced plasma lines were observed. These plasma lines were considered as manifest of the suprathermal electrons generated by the high-frequency heating wave during the ionospheric modification. The electron density profile is also obtained from the enhanced plasma lines. This study can be a promising technique for obtaining the accurate electron density during ionospheric modification experiment.     

Association of optical tracklets from a geosynchronous belt survey via the direct Bayesian admissible region approach

The direct Bayesian admissible region approach is an a priori state free measurement association and initial orbit determination technique for optical tracks. In this paper, we test a hybrid approach that appends a least squares estimator to the direct Bayesian method on measurements taken at the Zimmerwald Observatory of the Astronomical Institute at the University of Bern. Over half of the association pairs agreed with conventional geometric track correlation and least squares techniques. The remaining pairs cast light on the fundamental limits of conducting tracklet association based solely on dynamical and geometrical information.     

合金元素及第二相对钨的影响

综述了活化烧结元素,合金化元素,杂质元素及化合物对钨合金组织和性能的影响,并对新型钨基合金及其复合材料的研究、开发提出了一些看法。     

一种航天测控系统可靠性定量化计算方法

航天测控系统具有动态性、复杂性、可维修性、阶段间相关性等显著特征,作为航天器安全在轨运行的重要保障,其可靠性至关重要。针对航天测控系统可靠性精确计算的难点,提出了综合马尔可夫（Markov）模型和全概率思想的复杂、动态系统可靠性定量化计算方法,给出了计算流程。按照系统的动态组成特性,将任务进程划分为多个阶段,阶段内参试状态不变,不同阶段之间参试状态不同。借鉴Markov模型描述阶段内状态转移过程,通过求解Kolmogorov后向方程得到本阶段结束时的状态概率,利用全概率思想实现阶段间状态映射,体现阶段间的依赖性,依次对各阶段求解获取整个任务可靠性,具有求解准确度高、结果可信度高等特点。最后给出算例,通过与蒙特卡洛仿真结果的比对校验Markov方法的准确性。     

计及多因素影响的永磁电机空载气隙磁密解析计算法

为准确而快速地计算与评估电机的性能,以I型转子结构永磁电机为例,提出了一种计及多因素影响的空载气隙磁密的解析计算法,并用有限元进行了仿真验证。分析了永磁体尺寸、隔磁桥高度和极弧系数等参数对气隙磁密的影响规律,为优化电机方案提供了思路。