固体火箭发动机概率设计数字模拟

应用数字模拟技术，对固体火箭发动机进行概率设计，并将计算结果与用一次二阶矩可靠度分析方法得到的结果进行比较，结果表明，在应力和强度分布函数及其功能函数相同的情况下，两者结果一致。     

概率具有普遍意义

在事物必然的性质、方向和由此决定的活动范围之外，它发生、发展的每一具体变化都是偶然的。为了抓住偶然，就要求助于概率，概率已经成为我们的重要工具。     

空气耦合超声金属/非金属粘结缺陷检测

为提高SRM粘结结构脱粘缺陷检测效率,实现大面积快速自动检测,基于漏兰姆波检测原理,提出使用空气耦合超声兰姆波检测技术,对钢/树脂/橡胶粘结结构进行检测研究。使用二维傅里叶变换识别粘结结构中兰姆波模态,从兰姆波波结构出发分析了不同模态兰姆波对于脱粘缺陷的敏感性;使用空气耦合检测系统对不同尺寸缺陷进行定量检测,最后使用概率损伤成像算法对缺陷进行成像。结果表明：兰姆波幅值随脱粘缺陷的尺寸增大而增大,不同兰姆波模态检测灵敏度不同,检测灵敏度高的模态其离面位移更大,使用800 kHz频率的S₀模态检测灵敏度高于A₀模态,兰姆波成像算法能够快速准确的对脱粘区域进行定位成像。空气耦合超声兰姆波技术能够快速有效地对SRM脱粘缺陷进行检测,提高了检测效率,为非接触超声的实际应用提供了有益探索。     

冲击试验条件的转换方法及其应用

对冲击试验条件的转换方法进行了研究。利用从频域响应谱到时域激励信号的不唯一性,由小波合成法构造足够数量满足响应谱试验规范的时域激励信号,并施加到单机的有限元模型。用MSC．NASTRAN软件仿真计算单机中元器件安装位置处的响应。统计响应样本,获得在一定概率条件下元器件可能出现的响应峰值。将该峰值作为元器件冲击试验的半正弦波幅值,并以元器件产生最大响应的激励持续时间作为元器件冲击试验的作用时间参数,实现冲击试验条件的转换。给出了一个单机模型的冲击试验条件转换实例。     

Statistical analysis of the total electron content observed at 23°S in the Brazilian sector

The vertical total electron content (VTEC) time series obtained at São José dos Campos (23.2°S, 45.9°W), Brazil, were statistically analyzed to study the low latitude ionosphere in the Brazilian sector during the year of 2006 (a period of low solar activity). Statistical analysis showed that Probability Density Functions (PDFs) and kurtosis have an intermittent behavior on small-scales (periods from minutes to one day) and presence of two functions on large-scales (periods from 3 to 30 days). The skewness result suggests the presence of some kind of waves due to the action of tropospheric sources (lower atmospheric origin). Results obtained by wavelet transform show strong oscillations with scale-sizes between 3 and 30 days, possibly associated with the planetary oscillations. According to these statistical and wavelet analyses we conjecture that there exist two important factors regarding the ionospheric effects: one factor is due to turbulent states found in small scales and the other factor consists in a more or less deterministic state provided by planetary waves (3–16 days or full solar rotation (27–28 days)). Further, these strong oscillations were also noted in multifractal analysis. We found a decrease of multifractality degree of the same scale-sizes.     

基于应变的结构疲劳寿命概率模型

对航空铝合金7050-T7451疲劳试验数据进行统计分析,得出其对数寿命的标准差与均值近似呈线性关系。在此基础上建立了高循环疲劳和低循环疲劳都适用的基于应变的疲劳寿命概率模型,进一步根据对数寿命均值的置信下限和标准差的置信上限给出了置信水平0.95的概率模型,并应用该模型进行了某航天器机械臂的疲劳可靠性分析,得到了其寿命分布及可靠度水平0.9987的臂管寿命。     

内部干扰因素对液体火箭发动机性能影响的仿真

以某泵压式液体火箭发动机为研究对象,以内部干扰因素的实际变化范围为基础,引用随机数的产生方法和概率密度函数估计的方法,以及Ｐｅａｒｓｏｎ、ｘ＾２检验法,在每个内部因素服从正态分布,韦布尔分布、均匀分布的不同情况下,利用液体火箭发动机静特怀非线性数学模型进行了内部干扰因素对流体火箭发动机性能影响的随机仿真,计算得出了发动机性能统计分布规律。     

空管人因失效概率的THERP-CREAM预测方法

管制员的人为差错是导致航空器空中相撞的主要原因之一,对空管人因失效概率进行有效预测是一个难题。为此,提出一种基于人误率预测技术（THERP）与认知可靠性和失误率分析模型（CREAM）的组合空管人因失效概率预测方法,基于THERP技术二叉树模型构建事故发展基本脉络,而后基于CREAM方法对各个人误行为触发概率进行修正,从而得出更为准确的概率预测结果。通过对相似事故进行对比分析,结果表明：本文提出的预测方法可识别关键性的事故影响因子,以便制定有针对性的管控措施,从而为研究预测空管人因失效概率提供了一种有效的分析手段。     

Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty:Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics

In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence-theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics (posbist reliability) and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics (belief reliability). It is pointed out that a qualified reli-ability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to (1) compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and (2) satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.     

对遥控系统误指令概率计算近似公式的推敲

在关于遥控指令错误概率的讨论中 ,提出了一些误指令概率近似计算公式 ,文中对此做了进一步的推敲 ,在概念上作了清理 ,分析它们各自可能产生误差的原因 ,并用实例比较它们的大小。最后也提出一种近似计算公式建议