Bioinspired polarized light compass in moonlit sky for heading determination based on probability density estimation

Bioinspired polarized skylight navigation, which can be used in unfamiliar territories, is an important alternative autonomous navigation technique in the absence of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS). However, the polarization pattern in night environment with noise effects and model uncertainties is a less explored area. Although several decades have passed since the first publication about the polarization of the moonlit night sky, the usefulness of nocturnal polarization navigation is ...     

导弹撞地概率对参数选择的影响

研究了巡航导弹的撞地概率和系统参数选择的关系问题。首先在考虑了地形随机输入和低空风随机干扰共同作用的情况下,推导了撞地概率的计算方法。其次以导弹主要参数（ａ２４和Ｋｈ）的选择为例,在给定条件下求出了它们和撞地概率的关系曲线,并分析了它们对撞地概率的影响。研究结果表明,协调选择ａ２４和Ｋｈ等参数,能有效降低撞地概率,提高巡航导弹的作战效能。     

Evaluation method for helicopter maritime search and rescue response plan with uncertainty

Helicopter plays an increasingly significant role in Maritime Search and Rescue (MSAR), and it will perform MSAR mission based on response plans when an accident occurs. Thus the rationality of response plan determines the success of MSAR mission to a large extent. However, with the impact of many uncertainty factors, it is difficult to evaluate response plans comprehensively before performing them. Aiming at these problems, an evaluation framework of helicopter MSAR response plan named UMAD is proposed in this paper, which reveals the influence mechanism of uncertainty factors based on Multi-Agent method and analyzes the mission flow based on Discrete Event System (DEVS) method. Furthermore, the evaluation criterion and indicators of response plan are extracted from the aspects of safety and effectiveness. Meanwhile, the Monte Carlo method is adapted to calculate the probability distribution and robustness of response plan comprehensive result. Finally, in order to illustrate the validity of this method, it is discussed and verified by an application example of evaluating multiple response plans to the same MSAR scenario. The results show that this method can analyze the influence of uncertainty more systematically and optimize response plans more comprehensively.     

密集杂波背景下的水下多目标跟踪方法

水下多目标跟踪是水声信号处理领域研究的热点和难点问题。高斯混合概率假设密度(Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density, GM-PHD)滤波器以其高效的计算效率为解决水下多目标跟踪问题提供了保证。然而,GM-PHD滤波器在跟踪目标时需要先验已知新生目标的强度,否则其性能会出现严重退化。针对该问题,提出一种滑动窗两步初始化高斯混合概率假设密度(sliding window two step initialization GM-PHD, SWTSI-GMPHD)滤波器。将提出的滑动窗两步初始化方法嵌入GM-PHD滤波器,利用滑动窗两步初始化方法估计新生目标强度,减少杂波干扰导致跟踪结果中出现的虚假目标。仿真实验表明,在杂波密集环境下,相较于其他跟踪方法,提出方法将跟踪精度提高69.84%,52.62%和41.05%。     

基于修正模型的天线指向误差统计特性分析

作为评估天线性能的重要指标之一,天线指向精度直接影响着天线的跟踪观测性能。为了适应任务需求,提高天线及星地链路分析精度,本文基于指向误差修正模型对模型各分量的影响因素含义进行了系统分析,并定量研究了各个分量对指向误差的影响。基于各模型参数的分布特性,提出了一种指向误差概率分布模型,进一步完善了天线指向误差分析计算方法,最后利用天线的典型参数分析计算了天线指向误差角近似满足修正瑞利分布下的特征,可为后续星地链路统计分析提供参考依据。     

正态-复合非时齐Poisson过程模型结构可靠性当量正态设计

讨论强度R～N（μ_R，_R），应力｛S（t），t∈［0，T］｝为非时齐Poisson过程模型结构可靠性当量正态设计。获得应力在设计基准期［0，T］内的最大值概率分布及统计参数估计；正态－复合非时齐Poisson过程模型结构可靠度及结构可靠性当量正态设计表达式。     

结构系统静强度与疲劳耦合可靠性的当量寿命分析

基于结构系统静强度和疲劳耦合可靠性分析方法,给出了元件静强度失效的当量寿命和当量损伤的概念。结合蒙特卡罗分析方法,讨论了当量损伤服从正态分布、对数正态分布、极值Ⅰ型分布和威布尔分布时当量寿命的概率分布形式。分析结果表明：当量损伤服从正态分布、对数正态分布、极值Ⅰ型分布时,当量寿命服从对数正态分布;当量损伤服从威布尔分布...     

一种航天测控系统可靠性定量化计算方法

航天测控系统具有动态性、复杂性、可维修性、阶段间相关性等显著特征,作为航天器安全在轨运行的重要保障,其可靠性至关重要。针对航天测控系统可靠性精确计算的难点,提出了综合马尔可夫（Markov）模型和全概率思想的复杂、动态系统可靠性定量化计算方法,给出了计算流程。按照系统的动态组成特性,将任务进程划分为多个阶段,阶段内参试状态不变,不同阶段之间参试状态不同。借鉴Markov模型描述阶段内状态转移过程,通过求解Kolmogorov后向方程得到本阶段结束时的状态概率,利用全概率思想实现阶段间状态映射,体现阶段间的依赖性,依次对各阶段求解获取整个任务可靠性,具有求解准确度高、结果可信度高等特点。最后给出算例,通过与蒙特卡洛仿真结果的比对校验Markov方法的准确性。     

Particle flters for probability hypothesis density flter with the presence of unknown measurement noise covariance

In Bayesian multi-target fltering,knowledge of measurement noise variance is very important.Signifcant mismatches in noise parameters will result in biased estimates.In this paper,a new particle flter for a probability hypothesis density（PHD）flter handling unknown measurement noise variances is proposed.The approach is based on marginalizing the unknown parameters out of the posterior distribution by using variational Bayesian（VB）methods.Moreover,the sequential Monte Carlo method is used to approximate the posterior intensity considering non-linear and non-Gaussian conditions.Unlike other particle flters for this challenging class of PHD flters,the proposed method can adaptively learn the unknown and time-varying noise variances while fltering.Simulation results show that the proposed method improves estimation accuracy in terms of both the number of targets and their states.     

空间光学系统中内部构件热辐射引起的谱段杂散辐射

对空间光学系统中由于内部构件热辐射而引起谱段杂散辐射,建立了谱段辐射物理模型和采用蒙特卡罗方法计算的有关概率模型及计算方法。编制了较通用的分析软件,并针对某一空间光学系统进行了计算,通过分析计算结果得到一些有益的结论。