月球探测软着陆与采样返回段弹道确定

针对月球探测中软着陆与采样返回段弹道计算问题,提出用数值逼近弹道确定方法。通过B样条对探测器状态进行建模,进而综合全弧段数据进行统计定轨的方法。由于样条法良好的数值逼近性能,使得该方法对探测器弹道异常复杂情况下的状态确定较为有效。对嫦娥三号探测器动力软着陆弧段进行了仿真与实测数据处理。分析了采样返回段的基本动力学与控制特征,为后续的嫦娥五号探测器的软着陆及其采样返回提供初步的可行弹道计算方法。在嫦娥三号探测器动力落月段实测数据处理中,通过评估,该段弹道确定精度优于100 m,其弹道末点与NASA的月球勘测轨道器（LRO）给出的结果差异优于50 m,证实了文章提出的软着陆弹道确定方法的有效性。     

嫦娥二号探测器轨道确定与支持

针对嫦娥二号探测器直接进入地月转移轨道、距月面100km高度捕获月球、完成既定任务后飞往日地第二拉格朗日平动点等飞行轨道方面的新特点,分析了定轨预报策略,利用事后精密轨道,全面评估了关键变轨点定轨预报和变轨后快速定轨的精度,其中,近月制动前3h定轨预报至近月点的位置误差为1km,速度误差为 0.3m/s 。利用不同月球引力场模型进行环月轨道精密定轨,根据实测数据残差分析和精密星历比对的结果,采用SGM100h引力场模型的定轨残差均方根最大。此外,针对嫦娥二号扩展任务,分析了不同测轨条件下的定轨精度,测量数据残差分析结果表明,在扩展任务中途修正前的定轨弧段内,测距、时延和时延率数据的残差分别为5m,5ns和1ps/s。     

Orbit determination for the GOCE satellite

Precise Orbit Determination (POD) for the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), the first core explorer mission by the European Space Agency (ESA), forms an integrated part of the so-called High-Level Processing Facility (HPF). Two POD chains have been set up referred to as quick-look Rapid and Precise Science Orbit determination or RSO and PSO, respectively. These chains make use of different software systems and have latencies of 1 day and 2 weeks, respectively, after tracking data availability. The RSO and PSO solutions have to meet a 3-dimensional (3D) position precision requirement of 50 cm and a few cm, respectively. The tracking data will be collected by the new Lagrange GPS receiver and the predicted characteristics of this receiver have been taken into account during the implementation phase of the two chains.     

卫星编队飞行的相对轨道自主确定研究

为了研究卫星编队飞行相对轨道的自主确定,基于相对轨道根数建立编队卫星间的相对运动方程,利用测量所得到的星间距离和方位信息作为观测量。不同于目前广泛采用的扩展卡尔曼滤波算法,设计Unscented Kalman Filter(UKF)算法实现卫星编队飞行的相对轨道自主确定。仿真结果表明这种相对轨道自主确定方案能获得较高的定轨精度。     

深空探测器小天体交会段自主导航方法研究

针对深空探测任务中,与小行星交会段的自主导航问题,首先建立探测器在交会段的轨道动力学模型,并提出了2种导航观测方案:1)利用目标天体图像作为观测量;2)利用目标天体视线方向和目标天体夹角作为观测量.然后结合动力学模型和观测模型推导了2种导航方法的滤波算法公式.最后通过蒙特卡罗数值仿真分析方法,估算了2种导航方法的误差值,结果表明误差值在可接受精度范围内,验证了2种自主导航方法是可行的.     

A simplified approach to uncertainty quantification for orbits in impulsive deflection scenarios

For the majority of near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) impact scenarios, optimal deflection strategies use a massive impactor or a nuclear explosive, either of which produce an impulsive change to the orbit of the object. However, uncertainties regarding the object composition and the efficiency of the deflection event lead to a non-negligible uncertainty in the deflection delta-velocity. Propagating this uncertainty through the resulting orbit will create a positional uncertainty envelope at the original impact epoch. We calculate a simplified analytic evolution for impulsively deflected NEAs and perform a full propagation of uncertainties that is nonlinear in the deflection delta-velocity vector. This provides an understanding of both the optimal deflection velocities needed for a given scenario, as well as the resulting positional uncertainty and corresponding residual impact probability. Confidence of a successful deflection attempt as a function of launch opportunities is also discussed for a specific case.     

Achievable debris orbit prediction accuracy using laser ranging data from a single station

Earlier studies have shown that an orbit prediction accuracy of 20 arc sec ground station pointing error for 1–2 day predictions was achievable for low Earth orbit (LEO) debris using two passes of debris laser ranging (DLR) data from a single station, separated by about 24 h. The accuracy was determined by comparing the predicted orbits with subsequent tracking data from the same station. This accuracy statement might be over-optimistic for other parts of orbit far away from the station. This paper presents the achievable orbit prediction accuracy using satellite laser ranging (SLR) data of Starlette and Larets under a similar data scenario as that of DLR. The SLR data is corrupted with random errors of 1 m standard deviation so that its accuracy is similar to that of DLR data. The accurate ILRS Consolidated Prediction Format orbits are used as reference to compute the orbit prediction errors. The study demonstrates that accuracy of 20 arc sec for 1–2 day predictions is achievable.     

Storm-time atmospheric density modeling using neural networks and its application in orbit propagation

Upper atmospheric densities during geomagnetic storms are usually poorly estimated due to a lack of clear understanding of coupling mechanisms between the thermosphere and magnetosphere. Consequently, the orbit determination and propagation for low-Earth-orbit objects during geomagnetic storms have large uncertainties. Artificial neural networks are often used to identify nonlinear systems in the absence of rigorous theory. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the storm-time atmospheric density using neural networks. Considering the debate over the representative of geomagnetic storm effect, i.e. the geomagnetic indices ap and Dst, three neural network models (NNM) are developed with ap, Dst and a combination of ap and Dst respectively. The density data used for training the NNMs are derived from the measurements of the satellites CHAMP and GRACE. The NNMs are evaluated by looking at: (a) the mean residuals and the standard deviations with respect to the density data that are not used in training process, and (b) the accuracy of reconstructing the orbits of selected objects during storms employing each model. This empirical modeling technique and the comparisons with the models NRLMSIS-00 and Jacchia-Bowman 2008 reveal (1) the capability of neural networks to model the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activities, and density variations; and (2) the merits and demerits of ap and Dst when it comes to characterizing density variations during storms.     

Optimal two-impulse rendezvous with terminal tangent burn considering the trajectory constraints

The two-impulse orbital rendezvous problem with a terminal tangent burn between coplanar elliptical orbits is studied by considering a lower bound on perigee radius and an upper bound on apogee radius for the transfer orbit. This problem requires that two spacecraft arrive at the rendezvous point with the same arrival flight-path angle after the same flight time. The admissible range of the final true anomaly that meets the perigee and apogee constraints is obtained in closed form. The revolution number of the transfer orbit is expressed as a function of the true anomaly and the revolution numbers of the initial and final orbits. All the feasible solutions are obtained with a bound on the revolution number of the final orbit. Then, the minimum-fuel one is determined by comparing their costs. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to obtain all the feasible solutions for given initial impulse points and the optimal solution with the initial coasting arc. Numerical results show that the minimum-fuel solution for the terminal tangent burn rendezvous is close to that for the cotangent rendezvous when the rendezvous time is long enough; however, the cotangent rendezvous may not exist when the rendezvous time is short.     

磁暴下的LEO卫星精密轨道确定

对低轨卫星（LEO）,大气阻尼摄动是主要的定轨误差源.尤其在发生磁暴时,求解一个大气阻尼因子的定轨方法已不能充分吸收大气密度计算不准所造成的定轨误差,因而在标校统一S波段（USB）的测量系统差和随机差时往往计算失真.本文提出了一种求解折线型Cd因子的新方法,克服了动力学模型不准所带来的定轨误差,通过与独立的GPS数据比较,定轨精度有明显提高,同时给出的测量系统差和随机差更加真实可信.