Variational Bayesian Kalman filter using natural gradient

We propose a technique based on the natural gradient method for variational lower bound maximization for a variational Bayesian Kalman filter. The natural gradient approach is applied to the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the parameterized variational distribution and the posterior density of interest. Using a Gaussian assumption for the parametrized variational distribution, we obtain a closed-form iterative procedure for the Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, producing estimates of...     

西飞公司应用振动时效技术的现状及前景分析

通过介绍振动时效的原理、工艺特点及其应用情况，并与热时效进行了对比，进而阐述了振动时效技术的优点及工艺局限性，并就在西飞公司的应用前景进行了分析，指出为提高产品质量和效率，应积极开展振动时效技术的研究。     

Boundary condition modelling and identification for cantilever-like structures using natural frequencies

The actual boundary conditions of cantilever-like structures might be non-ideally clamped in engineering practice, and they can also vary with time due to damage or aging. Precise modelling of boundary conditions, in which both the boundary stiffness and the boundary mass should be modelled correctly, might be one of the most significant aspects in dynamic analysis and testing for such structures. However, only the boundary stiffness was considered in the most existing methods. In this paper, a boundary condition modelling and identification method for cantilever-like structures is proposed to precisely model both the boundary stiffness and the boundary mass using sensitivity analysis of natural frequencies. The boundary conditions of a cantilever-like structure can be parameterized by constant mass, constant rotational inertia,constant translational stiffness, and constant rotational stiffness. The relationship between natural frequencies and boundary parameters is deduced according to the vibration equation for the lateral vibration of a non-uniform beam. Then, an iterative identification formulation is established using the sensitivity analysis of natural frequencies with respect to the boundary parameters. The regularization technique is also used to solve the potential ill-posed problem in the identification procedure.Numerical simulations and experiments are performed to validate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed method can be utilized to precisely model the boundary parameters of a cantilever-like structure.     

Towards a scientific understanding of the risk from extreme space weather

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest, and sometimes alarm, because bright aurora becomes visible at mid-latitudes. However, they had little economic impact because the major technologies of those eras were not sensitive to space weather. This is no longer true. The widespread adoption of advanced technological infrastructures over the past 40 years has created significant sensitivity. So these events now have the potential to disrupt those infrastructures – and thus have profound economic and societal impact. However, like all extreme hazards, such events are rare, so we have limited data on which to build our understanding of the events. This limitation is uniquely serious for space weather since it is a global phenomenon. Many other natural hazards (e.g. flash floods) are highly localised, so statistically significant datasets can be assembled by combining data from independent instances of the hazard recorded over a few decades. Such datasets are the foundation on which reliable risk assessment methodologies are built. But we have a single instance of space weather so we would have to make observations for many centuries in order to build a statistically significant dataset. We show that it is not practicable to assess the risk from extreme events using simple statistical methods. Instead we must exploit our knowledge of solar-terrestrial physics to find other ways to assess these risks. We discuss three alternative approaches: (a) use of proxy data, (b) studies of other solar systems, and (c) use of physics-based modelling. We note that the proxy data approach is already well-established as a technique for assessing the long-term risk from radiation storms, but does not yet provide any means to assess the risk from severe geomagnetic storms. This latter risk is more suited to the other approaches, but significant research is needed to make progress. We need to develop and expand techniques to monitoring key space weather features in other solar systems (stellar flares, radio emissions from planetary aurorae). And to make progress in modelling severe space weather, we need to focus on the physics that controls severe geomagnetic storms, e.g. how can dayside and tail reconnection be modulated to expand the region of open flux to envelop mid-latitudes?     

低温输液泵自然循环预冷模拟试验

介绍了低温液体自然循环预冷方案，并以液氮为模拟推进剂，进行一系列循环预冷模拟试验，包括常压或增压环境、气相回流或液相回流、小管径或大管径、回流管绝热或裸露、自流或引射等各种组合。通过分析对比各状态试验时系统所获得的温度、压力数据，得出气相回流循环预冷试验较液相回流循环预冷试验更能快速、持续地预冷系统，增压和引射在特定条件下有利于系统保持循环状态等结论。     

韧性语音识别技术

在实际环境中,背景噪声是广泛存在的,而且严重损害诸如语音理解与识别技术应用的效果。本文主要讨论噪声分布是近正态分布的情况。噪声的概率密度函数(p、d、f)为如下形式:f(x)=(1-ε)g(x)+εg(x)其中,g(x)是正态概率密度函数,h(x)是任意对称的概率密度函数,ε是一个常数,0<ε<1。借助于Robust的基本思想,我们对线性预测的残差进行了韧性处理,得到Robust M估计。减少了噪声中语言参数的估计偏差,而且导出了Robust M估计的格点算法并给出了实验数据和结果。     

复合材料自动铺带技术研究(Ⅱ)——柱面上沿"自然路径"铺带的压辊坐标生成

根据可展曲面上“自然路径”与测地线等价原理，应用沿弧长展开方法，研究了柱面上“自然路径”轨迹生成、铺带头轨迹坐标和姿态坐标计算模型与方法，讨论了简单边界的处理原则与方法，为实现柱面自动铺带CAD／CAM提供了依据。     

复合材料自动铺带技术研究(I)——“自然路径”特性分析及算法

分析了可展面上“自然路径”的几何本质,推演证明其在可展曲面上与测地线的等价性。应用和拓展可展面“自然路径”数值算法,在一般曲面上引入边界控制点调整预浸带中心点以减小预浸带变形、实现铺放,构造了一般曲面“自然路径”求解格式。     

Thick exchange layer evaporation model with natural convection effect and evaporation experimental study for multicomponent droplet

In order to investigate the high-temperature evaporation characteristics of multicomponent liquid fuel, three kinds of blended fuel: n-heptane/n-decane/RP-3 aviation kerosene-ethanol were experimentally studied with and without forced convection. Further, based on zerodiffusion and infinite diffusion concept, this study expanded Thick Exchange Layer evaporation model with Natural Convection effect(NC-TEL) to multicomponent liquid fuels. The experimental results show that the droplet evaporation ...     

FY-1C/D极轨气象卫星的运行和应用

简要介绍了风云一号(FY-1)C，D极轨气象卫星的运行情况。运行期间，在洪涝、火情、干旱和积雪等自然灾害的监测服务，沙尘暴、大雾和海冰等环境监测服务，全球资料应用，以及天气分析方面发挥了重要的作用．并可提供气象卫星数据的共享服务。两星在大范围自然灾害监测和评估等领城取得了显著的社会和经济效益，并在国内国际产生了重大影响。