Study on segmented distribution for reliability evaluation

In practice, the failure rate of most equipment exhibits different tendencies at different stages and even its failure rate curve behaves a multimodal trace during its life cycle. As a result, traditionally evaluating the reliability of equipment with a single model may lead to severer errors. However, if lifetime is divided into several different intervals according to the characteristics of its failure rate, piecewise fitting can more accurately approximate the failure rate of equipment. There-fore, in this paper, failure rate is regarded as a piecewise function, and two kinds of segmented dis-tribution are put forward to evaluate reliability. In order to estimate parameters in the segmented reliability function, Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the seg-mented distribution are discussed in this paper. Since traditional information criterion is not suit-able for the segmented distribution, an improved information criterion is proposed to test and evaluate the segmented reliability model in this paper. After a great deal of testing and verification, the segmented reliability model and its estimation methods presented in this paper are proven more efficient and accurate than the traditional non-segmented single model, especially when the change of the failure rate is time-phased or multimodal. The significant performance of the segmented reli-ability model in evaluating reliability of proximity sensors of leading-edge flap in civil aircraft indi-cates that the segmented distribution and its estimation method in this paper could be useful and accurate.     

Adelaide地区大气重力波的气辉观测

利用澳大利亚Adelaide(34.5°S,138.5°E)地区7年(1995-2001年)的OH和OI气辉观测数据,以及同地区中频雷达所测背景风场数据,通过最大熵谱分析方法,统计分析了该地区大尺度重力波的传播特性.结果表明,(1)在中层顶气辉观测区,利用OH气辉探测到48个重力波事件,利用OI气辉探测到29个重力波事件,这些重力波的周期和水平相速度分别集中在68 min和36 m/s左右,具有东南向的优势传播方向,平均仰角为8°～10°,接近水平方向传播;(2)通过OH气辉和OI气辉观测到了同一个重力波事件,并根据两个高度上观测到的扰动相位差判断该重力波为上行波.      

返回舱弹道重建与黑障区弹道再现研究

对于飞船返回舱，黑障区弹道再现是再人飞行试验气动分析工作的重要环节。利用舱上测量数据和有限的雷达测量数据重构飞行弹道，是黑障区弹道再现的有效方法。本文建立了返回舱弹道重建的数学模型，包括运动学模型、观测模型、测量误差模型，从而将返回舱弹道重建问题转化为一个非线性动态系统的参数辨识问题。给出了基于极大似然判据和Newton-Raphson迭代的弹道重建算法。对某飞船返回舱的飞行试验数据进行了计算和分析，结果证实了弹道重建数学模型的正确性和算法的可行性。通过弹道重建，不仅再现了黑障区的弹道，而且提供了可靠的、完整的弹道数据。     

CZ-2F逃逸飞行器最大速度头模拟飞行试验技术

最大速度头试验是指模拟运载火箭在最大速度头状态(Qmax)出现故障时，考核逃逸飞行器的工作情况。通过试验获得逃逸飞行器环境及性能参数；考核其结构强度；考核栅格翼释放机构的功能。试验涉及逃逸飞行器结构、遥测系统、外测系统、火箭车动力系统、火工品控制系统等，属于大型综合性试验，难度大，风险高。本文简述了CZ-2F逃逸飞行器的功能，介绍了最大速度头地面模拟飞行试验目的、方案设计及结果分析，得出了相应的结论。     

一种估计机动目标运动参数的方法

本文利用非线性跟踪微分器思想，提出了一种对机动目标的运动参数进行估计的新方法。该方法的实质是设计一个动态系统，在跟踪从雷达获得的位置信息的同时，得到目标运动的速度信息。最后给出的仿真结果表明，它不仅具有较高的估计精度，而且计算量不大，不失为一种工程上可实现的有效方法。     

串联型MPPT空间电源系统稳定性技术

串联型最大功率点跟踪(MPPT)空间电源系统存在母线电压振荡或跌落等不稳定现象,文章以MPPT不调节母线电源拓扑为研究对象,建立了系统等效电路模型,通过小信号等效分析、状态空间方程特征根求解等手段,分别对MPPT控制域及电压控制域下电源系统的稳定性进行了分析.结果表明,在太阳电池阵及阵列功率调节器特性曲线一定的条件下,通过对二者间电感、电容参数合理配置,可以保证系统稳定.在MATLAB/SIMULINK中搭建了串联型MPPT不调节母线电源系统仿真模型并进行实例仿真,仿真结果验证了理论分析的正确性.     

高超声速进气道隔离段反压的前传模式及最大工作反压

对均匀来流和有斜波入射(非均匀)情况下隔离段内流动进行了数值分析,发现反压增加首先在隔离段出口形成激波串,出口压力不断增加,而隔离段内流动没有变化;进一步增加反压,直到隔离段出口附面层开始分离时,激波串开始往隔离段内移动,壁面压力自激波串第一道激波位置开始逐渐增加;反压继续增加,激波串在隔离段内不断地向前移动。分析了隔离段内激波串的流动特征,发现激波串是由系列“斜激波 附面层分离 加速降压”流动组合而成,激波串后的流动为掺混流动(掺混区)。提出了最大工作反压的概念,当反压等于最大工作反压时,激波串位于隔离段出口,波后附面层开始分离,反压的任何增加,激波串就会往隔离段内移动;当反压小于或等于最大工作反压时,隔离段出口为超声速流动。研究还发现最大工作反压比由零反压时隔离段出口平均马赫数唯一确定,马赫数越大,最大工作反压比越大。最大工作反压比数值可用D.E.Nestler的拟合式来计算。     

Real-time sensor fault detection and isolation for LEO satellite attitude estimation through magnetometer data

Attitude estimation is a critical component of the Attitude Determination and Control System (ADCS) of any satellite. It is used to convert the sensor observation data to an estimated attitude using filtering algorithms. However, in the presence of sensor faults, the ADCS fails to achieve the desired attitude accuracy. In this paper, the Fault Tolerant Extended Kalman Filter (FTEKF) is proposed to handle this imperfection. In accordance, various filtering steps are included in the FTEKF design to enhance both attitude estimation and sensor fault detection. The developed algorithm can detect and isolate any unexpected sensor faults in real time, which provides a reliable attitude estimation. A comparative study with the classical and robust Kalman filters is performed through numerical simulations in order to validate the effectiveness of the adopted filter in case of magnetometer fault data.     

Fast approximate maximum likelihood period estimation from incomplete timing data

 To estimate the period of a periodic point process from noisy and incomplete observations, the classical periodogram algorithm is modified. The original periodogram algorithm yields an estimate by performing grid search of the peak of a spectrum, which is equivalent to the periodogram of the periodic point process, thus its performance is found to be sensitive to the chosen grid spacing. This paper derives a novel grid spacing formula, after finding a lower bound of the width of the spectral mainlobe. By employing this formula, the proposed new estimator can determine an appropriate grid spacing adaptively, and is able to yield approximate maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) with a computational complexity of O(n²). Experimental results prove that the proposed estimator can achieve better trade-off between statistical accuracy and complexity, as compared to existing methods. Simulations also show that the derived grid spacing formula is also applicable to other estimators that operate similarly by grid search.     

Bayesian edge detector for SAR imagery using discontinuity-adaptive Markov random feld modeling

Synthetic aperture radar（SAR）image is severely affected by multiplicative speckle noise,which greatly complicates the edge detection.In this paper,by incorporating the discontinuityadaptive Markov random feld（DAMRF）and maximum a posteriori（MAP）estimation criterion into edge detection,a Bayesian edge detector for SAR imagery is accordingly developed.In the proposed detector,the DAMRF is used as the a priori distribution of the local mean reflectivity,and a maximum a posteriori estimation of it is thus obtained by maximizing the posteriori energy using gradient-descent method.Four normalized ratios constructed in different directions are computed,based on which two edge strength maps（ESMs）are formed.The fnal edge detection result is achieved by fusing the results of two thresholded ESMs.The experimental results with synthetic and real SAR images show that the proposed detector could effciently detect edges in SAR images,and achieve better performance than two popular detectors in terms of Pratt＇s fgure of merit and visual evaluation in most cases.