2021 Turkey mega forest Fires: Biodiversity measurements of the IUCN Red List wildlife mammals in Sentinel-2 based burned areas

Mega wildfires are one of the environmental disasters worldwide. This study evaluates the pre-fire species diversity and the indirect effects, including habitat loss for one of the largest wildfires in Manavgat (Antalya-Turkey) in 2021, with a two-step methodology. Here, (1) burnt areas in the Manavgat district (2021) were detected with remote sensing data from Sentinel-2A by delta Normalized Burn Ratio calculation for a selected area in Google Earth Engine, and (2) mammals' habitat vector data of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List were integrated into Habitat and Biodiversity modelling of Terrset to analyze the alpha, beta, gamma diversity and Range Restriction Index for the wildfire region. In the total 4210 km² study area, 696 km² of the area was damaged by different fire severity; also, there were 56 mammal species' habitats here. These species include bats (i.e. Nyctalus leisleri), felids (i.e. Felis chaus), rodents (i.e. Rattus norvegicus) and large mammals (i.e. Ursus arctos). 88 % of these species are in IUCN's Least Concern category. The remaining classes are Near Threatened (3.7 %) and Vulnerable (7.4 %). This study also indicated that the burnt area's species richness does not totally consist of endemic species. Therefore, pre-fire species richness analyses of this study can be a base for further studies about the species' post-fire activity and occupancy.Furthermore, the 2021 mega wildfires show us the necessity of wildfire monitoring and risk studies in the entire Mediterranean ecosystem to evaluate the risks to the Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, post-fire spatial data, fire migration monitorization, and recording of the species' activities should be performed temporally. In this way, the ability of wildlife's recovering, and the direct and indirect effects of the fire will be examined for ecosystems in the long term.     

A new modeling scheme for powered parafoil unmanned aerial vehicle platforms: Theory and experiments

A novel framework is established for accurate modeling of Powered Parafoil Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (PPUAV). The model is developed in the following three steps: obtaining a linear dynamic model, simplifying the model structure, and estimating the model mismatch due to model variance and external disturbance factors. First, a six degree-of-freedom linear model, or the structured model, is obtained through dynamic establishment and linearization. Second, the data correlation analysis is adopted to determine the criterion for proper model complexity and to simplify the structured model. Next, an active model is established, combining the simplified model with the model mismatch estimator. An adapted Kalman filter is utilized for the real-time estimation of states and model mismatch. We finally derive a linear system model while taking into account of model variance and external disturbance. Actual flight tests verify the effectiveness of our active model in different flight scenarios.     

Robust model predictive control for satellite formation keeping with eccentricity/inclination vector separation

This study presents model predictive formation control based on an eccentricity/inclination vector separation strategy. Alternative collision avoidance can be accomplished by using eccentricity/inclination vectors and adding a simple goal function term for optimization process. Real-time control is also achievable with model predictive controller based on convex formulation. Constraint-tightening approach is address as well improve robustness of the controller, and simulation results are presented to verify performance enhancement for the proposed approach.     

Predictive fault-tolerant control of an all-thruster satellite in 6-DOF motion via neural network model updating

The problem of controlling an all-thruster spacecraft in the coupled translational-rotational motion in presence of actuators fault and/or failure is investigated in this paper. The nonlinear model predictive control approach is used because of its ability to predict the future behavior of the system. The fault/failure of the thrusters changes the mapping between the commanded forces to the thrusters and actual force/torque generated by the thruster system. Thus, the basic six degree-of-freedom kinetic equations are separated from this mapping and a set of neural networks are trained off-line to learn the kinetic equations. Then, two neural networks are attached to these trained networks in order to learn the thruster commands to force/torque mappings on-line. Different off-nominal conditions are modeled so that neural networks can detect any failure and fault, including scale factor and misalignment of thrusters. A simple model of the spacecraft relative motion is used in MPC to decrease the computational burden. However, a precise model by the means of orbit propagation including different types of perturbation is utilized to evaluate the usefulness of the proposed approach in actual conditions. The numerical simulation shows that this method can successfully control the all-thruster spacecraft with ON-OFF thrusters in different combinations of thruster fault and/or failure.     

基于新陈代谢GM（1,1）模型的导弹遥测故障预测算法

在人工监视遥测关键参数是否超出阈值范围以判断导弹故障的传统模式基础上,对GM（1,1）预测模型进行了改进,研究了基于新陈代谢的GM（1,1）预测算法对遥测参数实时预测效果.该算法能不断去掉最老的信息,充分利用最新的信息,避免了预测模型老化的现象;由于用于预测的数列维度较少,便于计算,能够保证算法的实时性.用MATLAB编程实现算法,比对实测数据的预测值与实际值,并进行误差分析.结果表明,该算法对遥测参数的预测精度较高,可为及时发现导弹故障提供科学的依据.     

柔性航天器的动力学建模问题

首先简单介绍了关于柔性航天器动力学建模的一些综述论文,指出了柔性航天器动力学建模的困难所在。然后,分别对柔性体变形运动的描述模型,浮动参考架的选择、动力学方程的建立和模型降阶等问题进行了探讨。     

太阳大气中湍动场对CaⅡK线的影响

本文运用黑子半影模型研究了中介湍动场对太阳大气中CaII K线的影响。结果表明,空间分辨率的提高以及湍动元长度的增加均可导致观测谱线轮廓的不对称。当湍动元长度小于40km时,中介湍动场可以用微观和宏观湍动的组合来模拟,对大气模型及谱线轮廓的计算基本无影响;但当湍动元长度大于40km时,这种简化的处理方法可能导致大气模型上层色球温度偏高。文中通过一个计算实例,说明了在太阳大气模型计算中,只用中介湍动也可能使谱线的理论轮廓同观测基本相符。      

大型星载可展开天线的展开动力学问题

针对大型星载可展开天线所具有的尺寸大、刚性小、展开机构复杂,所处环境恶劣等特点,结合天线的构形特征,着重从可展开天线展开动力学的建模角度,综述了可展开天线的展开动力学问题。对解决途径及办法提出了一些看法。     

变幅加载下疲劳可靠性分析

分别对疲劳载荷、寿命与强度的随机性进行了分类。基于二维概率Miner准则,建立了在变幅载荷谱或随机时间历程载荷谱给定的条件下,对结构构件进行疲劳可靠性分析的新方法,并由此推导出统计Miner准则中α的分布。最后,分别给出了实验数据验证结果和工程应用实例,显示出该方法具有简便性和实用性。      

综合效益模型求解方法的探讨

综合效益模型,是一种综合多因素影响的动态模型,它既包括一般效益模型,又考虑最优投资的优化效益模型。前者求解,可用解析法;后者求解,就不那么容易。文章分析了模型特征,认为是一个固定端点的最优控制问题,从而,选用格林定理（公式）能较好地求得满意解。