A geomagnetic activity forecast for improving the efficiency of aeromagnetic surveys in Greenland

In recent years several aeromagnetic surveys were carried out in Greenland and more will be carried out in the future. We describe some of the characteristics pertinent to surveys in Greenland and the problems faced and experiences made by the survey teams working there, with special emphasis on the west coast where most surveys were conducted. Both unfavorable terrestrial weather and space weather appear to complicate survey planning. We discuss possible options available to the survey teams for mitigating the adverse effect of part of the problems, namely survey data contamination by intense geomagnetic activity. The implementation of a prototype geomagnetic activity forecast service as an aid to planning survey flights is discussed in more detail. The forecast service was tested by an independent observer, and the performance of the scheme is evaluated by a subsequent comparison between forecast and actual measurements. The comparison rendered largely acceptable results, but their validity is limited by the fact that the two-month test interval was characterized by a mostly relatively quiet magnetic field.     

Influence of Earth’s shadowing effects on space debris stability

Solar radiation pressure affects the evolution of high area-to-mass geostationary space debris. In this work, we extend the stability study of Valk et al. (2009) by considering the influence of Earth’s shadows on the short- and long-term time evolutions of space debris. To assess the orbits stability, we use the Mean Exponential Growth factor of Nearby Orbits (MEGNO), which is an efficient numerical tool to distinguish between regular and chaotic behaviors. To reliably compute long-term space debris motion, we resort to the Global Symplectic Integrator (GSI) of Libert et al. (2011) which consists in the symplectic integration of both Hamiltonian equations of motion and variational equations. We show how to efficiently compute the MEGNO indicator in a complete symplectic framework, and we also discuss the choice of a symplectic integrator, since propagators adapted to the structure of the Hamiltonian equations of motion are not necessarily suited for the associated variational equations. The performances of our method are illustrated and validated through the study of the Arnold diffusion problem. We then analyze the effects of Earth’s shadows, using the adapted conical and cylindrical Earth’s shadowing models introduced by Hubaux et al. (2012) as the smooth shadow function deriving from these models can be easily included into the variational equations. Our stability study shows that Earth’s shadows greatly affect the global behaviour of space debris orbits by increasing the size of chaotic regions around the geostationary altitude. We also emphasize the differences in the results given by conical or cylindrical Earth’s shadowing models. Finally, such results are compared with a non-symplectic integration scheme.     

Space technology transfer: Spin-off cases from Japan

Government organizations have to justify high expenditure during periods of financial crisis such as the one we are experiencing today. Space agencies have attempted to increase the returns on their investments in space missions by encouraging the commercial use of advanced technologies. This paper describes two technology transfer (TT) cases promoted by JAXA, in order to identify the organizational models and determinants of TT. The development of a TT process from space to Earth not only benefits the aerospace industry but also the network of national companies. The aim of the paper is to investigate who the actors are and the nature of their role, as well as the determinants of the TT process in the Japanese space sector. The case studies confirm the typical path of transfer as ‘Earth–space–Earth’.     

European space research in support of international partnership

The envisaged future space research programmes, whether in the field of space exploration or Earth observation are becoming more and more technically complicated and so costly that a single nation can hardly afford to realize them. Major non-European space-faring nations, China and India will progressively play an important role besides US, Russia and Japan. The Space Advisory Group of the European Commission recommended that the European Commission supports within Horizon 2020 a comprehensive Robotic Mars-Exploration Programme under European leadership that should become an essential element of a coordinated international space research programme. The International Space Station (ISS) experience shows that cooperative space programmes build links between industries and laboratories from around the world, which then further develop in non-space related activities, with positive impact on the economy and scientific research. Strategies need to be developed to mitigate the gradual increasing risks incurred by climate change. In order to lower their entry barrier to engage in space emerging and developing space nations need to be included in cooperative space programmes. We present the recommendations of the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission concerning Europe's participation to global space endeavours.     

Development of Space Environment Research in China

Abstract This paper presents the recent research progress on space environment in China. The space environment here includes space environment models, forecast methodology and space environment effects on spacecrafts. Finally the development trends of China's space environment research are discussed.     

Forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms

Long-term forecast of space weather allows in achieving a longer lead time for taking the necessary precautions against disturbances. Hence, there is a need for long-term forecasting of space weather. We studied the possibility for a long-term forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms recur with an approximate 27-day period during the declining phase of a solar cycle. These disturbances are caused by the passage of corotating interaction regions, which are formed by interactions between the background slow-speed solar wind and high-speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole. In this study, we report on the performance of 27-day-ahead forecasts of the recurrent geomagnetic disturbances using Kp index. The methods of the forecasts are on the basis of persistence, autoregressive model, and categorical forecast using occurrence probability. The forecasts show better performance during the declining phase of a solar cycle than other phases. The categorical forecast shows the probability of detection (POD) more than 0.5 during the declining phase. Transition of the performance occurs sharply among the declining phases and other phases.     

Time step size and model stiffness in the simulated slew of a tow of square sails

In order to assess space tow solar sail stability and control feasibility, slew simulations are performed for a simplified but dynamically representative km-class tow-like sail of sixteen 25 m square units (10,000 m² total area and 110 kg gross mass) with a 250 kg payload. It is seen that, for the dimensions considered, the space tow concept is structurally sound and its control is feasible. While observed instabilities are identified as numeric in nature and are eliminated accordingly, their very occurrence highlights the need for a refinement of the model for future studies. The analyses are carried out with custom software implementing non-standard implicit-iterative time integration with innovative elements. A new damping model, specifically tailored for the analysis of truly gossamer systems such as solar sails, is also proposed.     

对称联系组合定标法检测CMM空间误差

分析了现有三坐标测量机误差检测方法，提出了对称联系组合定标法。详细论述了该方法的测量原理及其简练新颖的数学模型，并通过实验比对，验证了该方法的正确性和实用性。     

Magnetohydrodynamics in solar and space physics

Because of its proximity, our Sun provides a unique opportunity to perform high resolution observations of its outer layers throughout the whole electromagnetic spectrum. We can also theoretically model most of the fascinating physical phenomena taking place on the Sun, as well as their impact on the solar system.