An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle

The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20–24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.     

基于CAIV的导弹低成本保障性指标论证技术

利用CAIV技术分别建立反舰导弹的作战效能模型和总拥有费用模型,并以权衡空间为约束条件,以费用最低为目标,建立保障性指标权衡优化模型。该方法可以为导弹武器装备保障性指标论证工作提供必要的理论基础和技术支持。     

Modified energy cascade model adapted for a multicrop Lunar greenhouse prototype

Models are required to accurately predict mass and energy balances in a bioregenerative life support system. A modified energy cascade model was used to predict outputs of a multi-crop (tomatoes, potatoes, lettuce and strawberries) Lunar greenhouse prototype. The model performance was evaluated against measured data obtained from several system closure experiments. The model predictions corresponded well to those obtained from experimental measurements for the overall system closure test period (five months), especially for biomass produced (0.7% underestimated), water consumption (0.3% overestimated) and condensate production (0.5% overestimated). However, the model was less accurate when the results were compared with data obtained from a shorter experimental time period, with 31%, 48% and 51% error for biomass uptake, water consumption, and condensate production, respectively, which were obtained under more complex crop production patterns (e.g. tall tomato plants covering part of the lettuce production zones). These results, together with a model sensitivity analysis highlighted the necessity of periodic characterization of the environmental parameters (e.g. light levels, air leakage) in the Lunar greenhouse.     

Soybean cultivar selection for Bioregenerative Life Support Systems (BLSSs) – Hydroponic cultivation

Four soybean cultivars (‘Atlantic’, ‘Cresir’, ‘Pr91m10’ and ‘Regir’), selected through a theoretical procedure as suitable for cultivation in BLSS, were evaluated in terms of growth and production. Germination percentage and Mean Germination Time (MGT) were measured. Plants were cultivated in a growth chamber equipped with a recirculating hydroponic system (Nutrient Film Technique). Cultivation was performed under controlled environmental conditions (12 h photoperiod, light intensity 350 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹, temperature regime 26/20 °C light/dark, relative humidity 65–75%). Fertigation was performed with a standard Hoagland solution, modified for soybean specific requirements, and EC and pH were kept at 2.0 dS m⁻¹ and 5.5 respectively.     

基于复合疲劳试验的涡轮叶片振动应力反推法

提出了一种利用复合疲劳试验和外场故障数据反推涡轮叶片实际振动应力的方法.该方法针对与故障叶片同批次的叶片,开展数个振动应力水平下的单件试验和某一特定振动应力水平下的成组试验,利用极大似然法推导出叶片的概率-应力-寿命曲线(P-S-N);最后基于99.87%存活率下的概率-应力-寿命曲(P_99.87%-S-N),结合叶片的外场故障统计结果,反推出叶片实际工作中振动应力的范围和可能的最大振动应力.      

火箭引射模态下主火箭总压与RBCC发动机的匹配性

基于传统的"等压面假设"理论,建立了RBCC发动机主火箭的引射性能分析模型,研究了主火箭总压与RBCC发动机的匹配性。研究结果表明,若隔离段通道面积比小于0.65,在主火箭总压较低条件下,隔离段内二次流容易达到壅塞,无法进一步提高空气流量;在地面静止状态下,随主火箭总压增加,空气流量逐步增大,等压面上形成Fabri壅塞后,进一步增加主火箭总压,反而会降低空气流量;在火箭引射模态下,RBCC发动机的工作状态可细分为引射作用占主导地位的进气道亚临界状态和临界状态、冲压作用占主导地位的进气道超临界状态,其分界马赫数分别约为0.7和1.5。     

航天工程地面测控软件的软件生存周期模型

软件生存周期模型(Software Life Cycle Model)是用于描述软件从开始研制到退出应用全过程中,各种活动如何执行的范化模型。对于航天工程地面测控软件,瀑布模型、演化模型、螺旋模型、原型模型等传统模型往往不能非常有效地适应其特性,存在一定的困难和问题。本文结合这些经典软件生存周期模型,在分析航天工程地面测控软件高可靠、需求易变等特点的基础上,提出了更具针对性的生存周期模型——构造增量模型。     

行星轮系动态啮合应力研究

针对行星传动齿轮系的结构特点,建立了行星齿轮和主动齿轮的非线性接触有限元模型,应用AN-SYS软件进行了动态接触分析的研究。基于研究结果,建立了可以体现行星齿轮系在工作过程的啮合应力变化情况的计算模型,可以直观地观察到行星齿轮系从开始啮合到完全脱开整个过程中的应力分布及变化情况。选择20节点六面体单元,模拟齿轮受载情况,迅速、高效地得出整个齿轮系的强度、刚度分布云图,大大提高了设计效率。     

内并联式TBCC进气道模态转换过程流动特性分析

针对组合动力(TBCC)进气道模态转换过程中出现的非定常气动现象,采用稳态/非稳态数值模拟方法对相关流动特性及其影响因素与流动机理开展了研究。结果表明：由涡轮发动机工作状态向冲压发动机工作模态转换过程中,进气道内出现结尾激波沿流向前后振荡现象,振荡频率约为130Hz;当冲压流道反压引起的激波未前传至模态转换分流板前时,冲压发动机工作状态对结尾激波振荡不产生影响。在相同的发动机工作状态下,随着模态转换速度的增加,结尾激波振荡频率逐渐增大。文中研究的进气道内结尾激波振荡现象可通过亚声速管道内波的传播理论进行解释和分析。     

空气预冷发动机及微小通道流动传热研究综述

首先针对发动机空气预冷系统的特点,将现有的预冷机制分为四种类型,包括燃料预冷、质量喷注预压缩冷却、燃料预冷和质量喷注预压缩冷却组合预冷以及其他流体预冷,并分别介绍了每种预冷机制的代表性发动机循环以及技术特点。调研发现,微小通道结构的预冷器具有很高的散热能力和紧凑度,优势显著。英国Skylon空天飞机的预冷却组合循环发动机（SABRE）其微通道结构预冷器具有极高换热能力。对SABRE的预冷器及相关研究进行详细分析,强调微小通道强化换热对提高发动机性能的重要作用。通过对微小通道中单相气态流动换热研究的调研发现,微尺度流动传热机理仍存在诸多分歧,理论发展不完善,需要深入开展微小通道强化传热研究,尤其对于高速高内外温差条件下微小尺度复杂结构空间内流动传热机理需要深入探索。