An efficient algorithm for calculating Profust failure probability

For efficiently estimating the Profust failure probability based on probability input variables and fuzzy-state assumption, a General Performance Function(GPF) expression is established under the strict mathematical derivation for the Profust reliability model. By constructing the GPF,the calculation of the Profust failure probability can be transformed into the calculation of the traditional failure probability. Then various existing methods for the traditional failure probability can be used to estimate the Profust failure probability. Due to the high efficiency of the Adaptive Kriging(AK) model and the universality of the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS), AK inserted MCS(abbreviated as AK-MCS) has been proven to be an efficient method for estimating the failure probability. Therefore, the AK-MCS combined with the GPF(abbreviated as AK-MCS + GPF)is proposed for estimating Profust failure probability. The proposed method greatly reduces the computational cost while ensuring the accuracy. Finally, four examples are given to validate the proposed AK-MCS + GPF. The results of the examples show the rationality and the efficiency of the proposed AK-MCS + GPF.     

压气机叶片加工误差影响不确定分析

为了正确评估加工误差的影响,提出了一种考虑加工误差大小、分布随机性的数值研究方法以实现叶片性能不确定性分析。采用NURBS(非均匀有理B样条) 方法实现叶型参数化,通过检测及统计手段获取误差真实分布,运用蒙特卡洛模拟生成随机样本,并训练Kriging代理模型进行不确定性分析,得到了叶片加工误差对气动性能的影响。结果表明:加工误差对气动性能的影响与所处工况有关,最高使得损失增加0.853%;叶型性能对于吸力面表面型线更为敏感,在加工及检测过程应给予更高要求。      

Rotorcraft flight endurance estimation based on a new battery discharge model

To avoid the numerical complexities of the battery discharge law of electric-powered rotorcrafts,this study uses the Kriging method to model the discharge characteristics of Li-Po batteries under standard conditions.A linear current compensation term and an ambient temperature compensation term based on radial basis functions are then applied to the trained Kriging model,leading to the complete discharged capacity-terminal voltage model.Using an orthogonal experimental design and a sequential method,the coefficients of the current and ambient temperature compensation terms are determined through robust optimization.An endurance calculation model for electric-powered rotorcrafts is then established,based on the battery discharge model,through numerical integration.Laboratory tests show that the maximum relative error of the proposed discharged capacity-terminal voltage model at detection points is 0.0086,and that of the rotorcraft endurance calculation model is 0.0195,thus verifying their accuracy.A flight test further demonstrates the applicability of the proposed endurance model to general electric-powered rotorcrafts.     

粒子群优化的Kriging近似模型及其在可靠性分析中的应用

将粒子群优化(PSO)算法引入Kriging建模过程,依靠PSO算法的群体搜索能力克服了模式搜索法单点序列搜索方式的局限性以及严重依赖于初猜解的缺点,保证了在任意初始条件下都能获取极大似然意义下的最优相关参数,从而有效确保了Kriging预测结果的最优无偏性.涡轮盘低循环疲劳可靠性分析实例表明,粒子群优化的Kriging(PSO-Kriging)近似模型对危险点周向应变变程的预测精度相对神经网络有数量级上的优势(最大误差由5.94%降低到0.09%),可不牺牲精度地代替有限元程序进行Monte Carlo模拟;同时PSO-Kriging建模与预测的总时间不及一次有限元分析的1/10.由于预测精度高(其最优无偏性由PSO算法保证)且计算开销不大,提出的PSO-Kriging对于实际工程结构的可靠性分析有一定应用价值.      

飞机多学科设计优化中的近似方法分析

首先介绍了近似方法中的二次响应面方法、径向基神经网络方法、Kriging方法和增强的径向基函数方法。结合测试函数和某机翼模型为例,分别用这四种方法构造测试函数和某机翼结构和气动学科的近似模型,并总结这四种方法的特点和在对各种模型近似中的适用性。结果表明,Kriging方法和增强的径向基函数方法的近似是非常精确和稳健的。     

On the estimation of regional covariance functions of TEC variations over Canada

Spatial and temporal variations of Total Electron Content (TEC) can affect GNSS high accuracy positioning. Enhanced estimation of ionospheric variations and their de-correlation can benefit differential and point positioning rapid solutions. Global and regional TEC maps can provide the overall state of ionopsheric variations in space and time domains within their accuracy limits. In this paper, these maps are exploited to retrieve ionospheric variations by means of variograms and their associated covariance functions of TEC residuals over Canadian region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed conditions. A number of theoretical variogram functions are reviewed for modeling covariance of TEC residuals. The variogram modeling of residuals during a strong geomagnetic storm revealed variances of one order of magnitude larger compared to a rather quiet condition. Variogram models are also used in regional and local kriging interpolation experiments and their performances are evaluated. Global maps of TEC RMS by International GNSS Service and two of its analysis centres are also compared over the Canadian region during a two-year period. Realistic representation of regional variances using estimated variograms when compared to global ionospheric RMS maps are also presented.     

基于Kriging模型的翼型多目标气动优化设计研究

在翼型气动优化设计中引入Kriging代理模型,发展了一套高效、稳定的气动优化设计程序。采用拉丁超立方试验设计方法在设计空间内构造一系列样本点,通过求解二维可压缩的雷诺平均NS方程（RANS）得到其响应值来建立初始Kriging模型。优化设计采用Hicks-henne函数对翼型几何外形进行参数化表示,以阻力极小化为设计目标,考虑面积、升力、力矩等约束条件,通过算例证明,发展的优化设计方法不仅可行,而且具有高效稳定的特性。与传统的优化设计方法比较,大大减少了设计时间。     

基于流体力学和电磁学方程数值求解的飞行器气动隐身一体化设计

介绍了基于流体力学和电磁学方程数值求解的飞行器气动隐身一体化设计方法.首先介绍了精度相对较高的飞行器气动和隐身特性数值计算方法,即,对于气动性能计算,求解的是结构网格上的NS方程加BL代数湍流模式;对于隐身特性计算,是用时域有限体积法来求解电磁学微分方程以获取RCS值.由于采用了高精度的数值方法,优化时单一设计点的气动性能计算和隐身性能计算变得较为耗时,因此在进行多目标遗传算法优化时本文采用了一种"少量样本计算+Kriging响应面模型建模"的优化策略.针对某类似X-47飞行器的一体化设计算例计算表明,上述设计方法是可行的,实现了优化设计中引入高精度的性能分析方法,有望提高优化结果的可信度.     

基于分解策略的涡轮叶片可靠性及多学科设计优化

将反一阶可靠性分析方法与多学科可行方法相结合,提出了一种适用于涡轮叶片复杂结构的可靠性及多学科设计优化方法.在优化过程中使用Kriging近似模型并不断提高模型精度,解决了多学科可行方法反复调用仿真程序进行多学科分析,计算量较大的问题.该方法将可靠性分析与多学科优化过程分离,提高了优化计算效率.以某型涡轮叶片的设计优化为例,对该方法进行了验证并与传统双循环方法进行了对比.结果表明,优化结果满足可靠性的要求,与双循环方法相比优化效率提高63.8%,证明了该方法在工程应用中的可行性和有效性.      

Uncertainty analysis and design optimization of hybrid rocket motor powered vehicle for suborbital flight

In this paper, we propose an uncertainty analysis and design optimization method and its applications on a hybrid rocket motor(HRM) powered vehicle. The multidisciplinary design model of the rocket system is established and the design uncertainties are quantified. The sensitivity analysis of the uncertainties shows that the uncertainty generated from the error of fuel regression rate model has the most significant effect on the system performances. Then the differences between deterministic design optimization(DDO) and uncertainty-based design optimization(UDO) are discussed. Two newly formed uncertainty analysis methods, including the Kriging-based Monte Carlo simulation(KMCS) and Kriging-based Taylor series approximation(KTSA), are carried out using a global approximation Kriging modeling method. Based on the system design model and the results of design uncertainty analysis, the design optimization of an HRM powered vehicle for suborbital flight is implemented using three design optimization methods: DDO, KMCS and KTSA. The comparisons indicate that the two UDO methods can enhance the design reliability and robustness. The researches and methods proposed in this paper can provide a better way for the general design of HRM powered vehicles.In this paper,we propose an uncertainty analysis and design optimization method and its applications on a hybrid rocket motor(HRM)powered vehicle.The multidisciplinary design model of the rocket system is established and the design uncertainties are quantified.The sensitivity analysis of the uncertainties shows that the uncertainty generated from the error of fuel regression rate model has the most significant effect on the system performances.Then the differences between deterministic design optimization(DDO)and uncertainty-based design optimization(UDO)are discussed.Two newly formed uncertainty analysis methods,including the Kriging-based Monte Carlo simulation(KMCS)and Kriging-based Taylor series approximation(KTSA),are carried out using a global approximation Kriging modeling method.Based on the system design model and the results of design uncertainty analysis,the design optimization of an HRM powered vehicle for suborbital flight is implemented using three design optimization methods:DDO,KMCS and KTSA.The comparisons indicate that the two UDO methods can enhance the design reliability and robustness.The researches and methods proposed in this paper can provide a better way for the general design of HRM powered vehicles.