Comparative study of foF2 measurements with IRI-2007 model predictions during extended solar minimum

The unusually deep and extended solar minimum of cycle 23/24 made it very difficult to predict the solar indices 1 or 2 years into the future. Most of the predictions were proven wrong by the actual observed indices. IRI gets its solar, magnetic, and ionospheric indices from an indices file that is updated twice a year. In recent years, due to the unusual solar minimum, predictions had to be corrected downward with every new indices update. In this paper we analyse how much the uncertainties in the predictability of solar activity indices affect the IRI outcome and how the IRI values calculated with predicted and observed indices compared to the actual measurements. Monthly median values of F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) derived from the ionosonde measurements at the mid-latitude ionospheric station Juliusruh were compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model predictions. The analysis found that IRI provides reliable results that compare well with actual measurements, when the definite (observed and adjusted) indices of solar activity are used, while IRI values based on earlier predictions of these indices noticeably overestimated the measurements during the solar minimum. One of the principal objectives of this paper is to direct attention of IRI users to update their solar activity indices files regularly. Use of an older index file can lead to serious IRI overestimations of F-region electron density during the recent extended solar minimum.     

TEC derived from some GPS stations in Nigeria and comparison with the IRI and NeQuick models

Total electron content (TEC) measured simultaneously using Global Positioning System (GPS) ionospheric monitors installed at some locations in Nigeria during the year 2011 (Rz = 55.7) was used to study the diurnal, seasonal, and annual TEC variations. The TEC exhibits daytime maximum, seasonal variation and semiannual variations. Measured TEC were compared with those predicted by the improved versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) and NeQuick models. The models followed the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the observed values of TEC. However, IRI model produced better estimates of TEC than NeQuick at all locations.     

火星磁场产生的原因及其分布

构建了一个可以得到火星赤道面上磁场分布的模型. 模型根据卫星观测数据, 提出了火星电离层、磁层顶和磁尾电流片上都各自通有电流的假设. 由电流的连续性条件可知, 这三种背景条件下的电流之间满足一定关系, 即火星磁层顶上的总电流是电离层上的总电流与磁尾电流片上的总电流之和. 这些电流产生的磁场与太阳风磁场共同构成了火星赤道面上磁场分布. 通过计算发现, 采用这种磁场模型得到的结果与目前卫星所观测的结果以及与采用其他方法得到的结果符合得较好.      

Response of the ionospheric F-region in the Brazilian sector during the super geomagnetic storm in April 2000 observed by GPS

The response of the ionospheric F-region in the equatorial and low latitude regions in the Brazilian sector during the super geomagnetic storm on 06–07 April 2000 has been studied in the present investigation. The geomagnetic storm reached a minimum D_st of −288 nT at 0100 UT on 07 April. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from GPS observations obtained at Imperatriz (5.5°S, 47.5°W; IMPZ), Brasília (15.9°S, 47.9°W; BRAZ), Presidente Prudente (22.12°S, 51.4°W; UEPP), and Porto Alegre (30.1°S, 51.1°W; POAL) during the period 05–08 April. Also, several GPS-based TEC maps are presented from the global GPS network, showing widespread and drastic TEC changes during the different phases of the geomagnetic storm. In addition, ion density measurements on-board the satellite Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F15 orbiting at an altitude of 840 km and the first Republic of China satellite (ROCSAT-1) orbiting at an altitude of 600 km are presented. The observations indicate that one of the orbits of the DMSP satellite is fairly close to the 4 GPS stations and both the DMSP F15 ion-density plots and the phase fluctuations from GPS observations show no ionospheric irregularities in the Brazilian sector before 2358 UT on the night of 06–07 April 2000. During the fast decrease of D_st on 06 April, there is a prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin resulting in decrease of VTEC at IMPZ, an equatorial station and large increase in VTEC at POAL, a low latitude station. This resulted in strong phase fluctuations on the night of 06–07 April, up to POAL. During the daytime on 07 April during the recovery phase, the VTEC observations show positive ionospheric storm at all the GPS stations, from IMPZ to POAL, and the effect increasing from IMPZ to POAL. This is possibly linked to the equatorward directed meridional wind. During the daytime on 08 April (the recovery phase continues), the VTEC observations show very small negative ionospheric storm at IMPZ but the positive ionospheric storm effect is observed from BRAZ to POAL possibly linked to enhancement of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly.     

Effects observed in the ionospheric F-region in the South American sector during the intense geomagnetic storm of 14 December 2006

This investigation presents observations related to the generation of equatorial ionospheric irregularities (also known as equatorial spread F (ESF)) including ionospheric plasma bubbles and dynamic behavior of the ionospheric F-region in the South American sector during an intense geomagnetic storm in December 2006 (a period of low solar activity). In this work, ionospheric sounding observations and GPS data obtained between 13 and 16 December 2006 at several stations in the South American sector are presented. On the geomagnetically disturbed night of 14 and 15 December, ionospheric plasma bubbles were observed after an unusual uplifting of the F-region during pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) period. The unusual uplifting of the F-region during PRE was possibly associated with prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin. During the geomagnetic disturbance night of 14 and 15 December, strong oscillations due to the propagation of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) by the Joule heating in the auroral region were observed in the F-region at São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.2°S, 45.9°W; dip latitude 17.6°S), Brazil, and Port Stanley (PST, 51.6°S, 57.9°W; geom. latitude 41.6°S). The VTEC-GPS observations presented on the night of 14 and 15 December 2006 show both positive and negative storm phases in the South American sector, possibly due to changes in the large-scale wind circulation and changes in the O/N₂ ratio in the southern hemisphere, respectively.     

F-region ionospheric parameters observed in the equatorial and low latitude regions during medium solar activity in the Brazilian sector and comparison with the IRI-2007 model results

The ionospheric sounding observations using the Canadian Advanced Digital Ionosondes (CADIs) operational at Palmas (PAL; 10.2°S, 48.2°W; dip latitude 6.6°S; a near-equatorial station), and São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.2°S, 45.9°W; dip latitude 17.6°S; a low-latitude station located under the southern crest of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly), Brazil, are analyzed during the different seasons viz., winter (June and July 2003), spring (September and October 2003), summer (December 2003 and January 2004), and fall (March and April 2004). The period used has medium solar activity (sunspot number between 77.4 and 39.3). The seasonal mean variations (using only geomagnetically quiet days) of the ionospheric parameters foF2 (critical frequency of the F-region), hpF2 (virtual height at 0.834 foF2; considered to be close to hmF2 (peak height of the F-region)), and h’F (minimum virtual height of the F-region) are calculated and compared between PAL and SJC. The prominent differences between PAL and SJC are as follows: h’F variations show strong post-sunset enhancement at PAL during the seasons of spring, summer, and fall; hpF2 variations show pre-sunrise uplifting of the F-layer at both stations during all the seasons and the hpF2 values during the daytime are lower at SJC compared with PAL during all the seasons; the foF2 variations show mid-day bite-out at PAL during all the seasons and SJC shows strong equatorial ionospheric anomaly during summer and fall seasons. Also, the seasonal variations of the ionospheric parameters foF2 and hpF2 (with ±1 standard deviation) observed at PAL and SJC are compared with the IRI-2007 model results of foF2 and hmF2. In addition, variations of the foF2 and hpF2 observed at SJC are compared with the IRI-2001 model results of foF2 and hmF2. It should be pointed out that the ionospheric parameter hpF2 is much easier to obtain using computer program developed at UNIVAP compared with hmF2 (using POLAN program). During the daytime due to underlying ionization hpF2 estimated is higher (approximately 50 km) than the true peak height hmF2. During the nighttime hpF2 is fairly close to hmF2. The comparison between the foF2 variations observed at PAL and SJC with the IRI-2007 model results shows a fairly good agreement during all the seasons. However, the comparison between the hpF2 variations observed at PAL and SJC with the hmF2 variations with the IRI-2007 model results shows: (1) a fairly good agreement during the nighttime in all the seasons; (2) the model results do not show the pre-sunrise uplifting of the F-layer at PAL and SJC in any season; (3) the model results do not show the post-sunset uplifting of the F-layer at PAL; (4) considering that, in general, hpF2 is higher than hmF2 during the daytime by about 50 km, the model results are in good agreement at PAL and SJC during all the seasons except summer at SJC, when large discrepancies in the observed hpF2 and modeled hmF2 are observed. Also, it has been observed that, in general, hmF2 values for SJC calculated using IRI-2001 are higher than IRI-2007 during the daytime in winter, summer, and fall. However, hmF2 values for SJC calculated using IRI-2001, are lower than IRI-2007 during the nighttime in spring.     

Ionospheric TEC prediction using hybrid method based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning model over India

Total electron data (TEC) from GPS nowadays can be used as a tool for understanding the space weather phenomena. The development of prediction model for TEC is quiet crucial and challenging due to the dynamic behavior of the ionosphere, since it depends on different factors such as seasonal, diurnal and spatial variations, solar geomagnetic conditions etc. In this paper, an attempt is made for predicting the GPS derived TEC values for different GNSS stations over India using a hybrid method based on Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning method. The daily TEC time series data from the IISc Bangalore (Latitude 13.021, Longitude 77.570), Lucknow (Latitude 26.912, Longitude 80.956) and Hyderabad (Latitude 17.417, Longitude 78.551) stations over India during the period 2008 to 2015 of solar cycle 23 and 24 is used for analysis. The assessment of model performance for testing predicted output compared with LSTM and EMD-LSTM models, and their comparison results show that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model presents better than the other models.     

A numerical study of noontime bite-outs in F2-region electron density

Noontime bite-outs in ionospheric F₂-region electron density in the geomagnetic equatorial, low, and middle latitudes have been reproduced in this study using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). The different driving mechanisms of F₂-region noontime bite-outs at different latitudes were further verified by modeling simulation. In the geomagnetic equator, the upward ExB plasma drifts are the main process to produce the noontime bite-outs in ionospheric electron density. In the geomagnetic low latitudes, both the electrical fields and poleward meridional winds play a crucial role in forming the noontime bite-outs. In contrast to the case at the geomagnetic equator, a weaker fountain effect might be an favorable condition for the noontime bite-outs to occur at low latitudes. For geomagnetic middle latitudes, an upward plasma flux and poleward meridional winds are the dominated drivers in producing the noontime bite-outs. Modeling results show that a large upward plasma flux and poleward meridional winds make the noontime bite-outs to occur and observable over middle latitudes.     

Ionospheric climate index as a driving parameter for the NeQuick model

Ionospheric delay is one of the significant error sources for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning. GNSSs broadcast the coefficients of the ionospheric model to correct ionospheric delay for single-frequency users. A modified three-dimensional model (NeQuick G) based on the NeQuick climatological model is adopted for Galileo users. The NeQuick G model uses the effective ionization level (Az) instead of the sunspot number as the driving parameter. In this study, we introduce the ionospheric climate index (ICI) as a new driving parameter for the NeQuick model. In comparison, the ICI-driven NeQuick model has a better performance than the Az-driven NeQuick G model at both low and high latitudes. In addition, only one GNSS station at low latitudes is required to calculate the ICI, which would save maintenance costs and improve the efficiency of updating the broadcast coefficients. This model has potential application value for future upgrades of Galileo’s ionospheric broadcast model.