卡尔曼平滑的自校准技术

介绍了卡尔曼平滑技术的固定区间平滑方法，推导了非线性时变模型的固定区间平滑公式，并将之应用到轨道约束自校准技术中，且导出了相应公式。     

区间卡尔曼滤波算法在高动态导航的研究

针对卡尔曼滤波算法中动力学系统模型以及噪声模型不能精确已知,导致卡尔曼滤波算法在实际中不能实现最优估计。首先分析了传统卡尔曼滤波算法中各种误差源的影响,以及区间矩阵运算的影响,经分析得到,区间运算可以保证集合映射的完全性,但不能体现最优化。通过分析,本文提出了一种新型的区间卡尔曼滤波,将各种误差源归约到先验估计值区间和后验估计值区间中,然后将区间交集运算应用于卡尔曼滤波算法。这种新算法运算量与传统卡尔曼滤波算法相当。通过仿真实验证实,该算法在含时变噪声的高动态导航定位中比传统卡尔曼滤波效果提高2dB。     

正态-极小值Ⅰ型模式结构可靠性的Bayes、Fiducial及经典近似限

对于正态(分布参数未知)-极小值Ⅰ型(分布参数已知)模式,在皮力的均值比强度的均值小得多且应力的方差很小的条件下,本文给出了它的结构可靠性的Bayes、Fiducial及经典近似限。     

Performance evaluation of complex systems using evidential reasoning approach with uncertain parameters

The composition of the modern aerospace system becomes more and more complex. The performance degradation of any device in the system may cause it difficult for the whole system to keep normal working states. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the performance of complex aerospace systems. In this paper, the performance evaluation of complex aerospace systems is regarded as a Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) problem. Based on the structure and working principle of the system, a new Evidential Reasoning (ER) based approach with uncertain parameters is proposed to construct a nonlinear optimization model to evaluate the system performance. In the model, the interval form is used to express the uncertainty, such as error in testing data and inaccuracy in expert knowledge. In order to analyze the subsystems that have a great impact on the performance of the system, the sensitivity analysis of the evaluation result is carried out, and the corresponding maintenance strategy is proposed. For a type of Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) used in a rocket, the proposed method is employed to evaluate its performance. Then, the parameter sensitivity of the evaluation result is analyzed, and the main factors affecting the performance of IMU are obtained. Finally, the comparative study shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

液体火箭推进系统频率特性的灵敏度分析

针对液体火箭飞行过程中POGO振动对火箭系统的不利影响,建立了液体火箭推进系统动力学模型,以区间数学为理论基础,对推进系统频率特性进行灵敏度分析,得到了推进系统的流体惯性、阻力和刚度参数对推进系统频率特性的影响规律。研究结果表明：液体火箭推进系统振动频率对流体惯性参数的敏感程度比流体阻力参数和流体刚度参数明显大,泵前短管流体惯性的变化对推进系统振动频率的影响最大,补偿管路流体刚度的变化对推进系统振动频率的影响最小。为合理设计推进系统的动力学参数,降低推进系统的振动频率,抑制 POGO 振动的发生提供理论依据。     

串联过程置信区间的贝努力法估算及其在制导武器系统性能评估中的应用

制导武器系统抗干扰可分解为串联关系的2个过程,即导引头抗干扰过程和控制系统抗干扰过程。本文用贝努力方法计算抗干扰性能的概率及其置信区间,推导出计算方法,用蒙特卡洛方法仿真验证,得出贝努力方法可以有效地估计制导武器系统抗干扰性能置信区间的结论。     

Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty:Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics

In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence-theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics (posbist reliability) and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics (belief reliability). It is pointed out that a qualified reli-ability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to (1) compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and (2) satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.     

基于实数编码量子进化算法和模态区间数学的航空发动机设计

本文将实数编码量子进化算法和模态区间数学相结合用于解决模态区间数学中的某些难以求解的问题。应用量子进化算法进行了模态区间数学方程组的求解和模态区间矩阵的求逆,将量子进化算法和模态区间数学用于航空发动机的设计,给出了基于模态区间数学的航空发动机总体性能设计方法。这种设计方法能够考虑设计的不确定性。并以某型涡喷发动机为例进行计算,设计结果更符合实际情况。     

Sealing reliability modeling of aviation seal based on interval uncertainty method and multidimensional response surface

Many variables affect the sealing performance, and their distribution characteristics are difficult to obtain with probabilistic methods owing to the high cost involved. Numerous problems in engineering are similar due to the appearance of small-sample parameters. In this study, the sealing reliability of an aviation seal was defined as the research object, and an interval uncertainty method and multidimensional response surface were proposed to calculate the sealing reliability.Based on this, we first analyzed the failure mechanism of the aviation seal and established a leakage rate model. Then, based on the non-probabilistic interval model, an interval uncertainty method was proposed to construct the analytical model. With reference to the limit state equation from the structural reliability theory, the multidimensional response surface was used for fast calculation.Then, we chose the single-cylinder gas steering gear used in aircraft as the case study, its sealing reliability in working and non-working statuses were calculated, and the results were verified with the actual maintenance records. By analyzing the sensitivity of some variables, we can improve the sealing reliability of the aviation seal by improving the surface roughness only if the cost allows.Finally, we consider that the method proposed in this study realizes the application of smallsample uncertainty analysis in reliability analysis, and could provide a feasible way to solve the similar problems in engineering with multidimensional and small-sample parameters.     

国产皮秒级商用MTIM测量仪比测

介绍国产皮秒级商用多通道时间间隔测量仪（MTIM）随同北斗导航系统建设的发展历程，通过在工程应用中比较分析国产MTIM测量仪与外国知名厂商MTIM测量仪比对测量数据，结果表明，国产MTIM测量仪的测量分辨力优于10ps，测量噪声小于15ps，测量不确定度小于20ps，通道固定时延随温度变化的温度系数小于1ps/℃；单批次、数十台、数以百计的高性能MTIM测量通道被用户合格验收。这表明小批量产的国产皮秒级商用MTIM测量仪足以比肩于国外同类知名产品。