计算故障先验概率的最大熵方法

为了解决故障先验概率估算不准的问题,提出了基于最大熵的故障先验概率的计算模型.该模型以相关的先验信息作为最大概率估计的约束条件,并通过拉格朗日函数,将故障先验概率估算问题转化成无约束优化问题.为了实现对无约束优化问题的快速求解,提出了一种基于最速下降法和牛顿法的混合梯度算法;并且,针对大规模系统中故障变量过多的情况,依据系统分解的原则,将高维故障空间分解为多个低维故障空间,给出了低维故障空间求解的快速计算方法.通过最大熵方法和故障平均间隔(MTTF,Mean Time To Failure)方法的结果比较,证明最大熵方法更具准确性.      

Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

Remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform conditionbased maintenance（CBM） for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades,research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve,prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.     

Behavior pattern mining based on spatiotemporal trajectory multidimensional information fusion

Trajectory data mining is widely used in military and civil applications, such as early warning and surveillance system, intelligent traffic system and so on. Through trajectory similarity measurement and clustering, target behavior patterns can be found from massive spatiotemporal trajectory data. In order to mine frequent behaviors of targets from complex historical trajectory data, a behavior pattern mining algorithm based on spatiotemporal trajectory multidimensional information fusion is proposed in this paper. Firstly, spatial–temporal Hausdorff distance is proposed to measure multidimensional information differences of spatiotemporal trajectories, which can distinguish the behaviors with similar location but different course and velocity. On this basis, by combining the idea of k-nearest neighbor and density peak clustering, a new trajectory clustering algorithm is proposed to mine behavior patterns from trajectory data with uneven density distribution. Finally, we implement the proposed algorithm in simulated and radar measured trajectory data respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can mine target behavior patterns from different complex application scenarios more quickly and accurately compared to the existing methods, which has a good application prospect in intelligent monitoring tasks.     

基于多模特征融合的雷达干扰信号识别

传统制导雷达面临的新型有源干扰样式越来越复杂，雷达必须对各种干扰类型加以鉴别。传统的干扰识别方法仅对特定单一样式有效，通用性较差、泛化能力较弱，无法应对复杂多变的干扰对抗环境。因此，必须提出智能化更高、稳健性更强的普适干扰识别方法，提升制导武器抗干扰能力。为了提高干扰信号识别的准确率，研究了多模特征融合算法，并最终对时域、时频域、信息论特征进行融合以实现分类。首次将信息论中熵、相对熵、相对距离等概念引入到干扰信号分类这个应用场景中，通过仿真实验表明，能够有效对常见干扰进行有效识别，在较低干噪比下也有较好的识别准确率。     

熵损失下无失效数据的 Bayes估计

讨论了在熵损失下定时截尾数据的Bayes估计问题，将无失效数据看作逐次定时截尾试验的结果，进而得到无失效数据的Bayes估计，利用相关定理证明该估计是容许的。通过数值例子，进一步说明所得估计的合理性。     

A clustering based method to complete frame of discernment

When the existing information does not contain all categories, the Generalized Evidence Theory (GET) can deal with information fusion. However, the question of how to determine the number of categories through GET is still intriguing. To address this question, a modified k-means clustering, named centers initialized clustering is proposed, filling the gap of identification and complement of the frame of discernment. Based on this clustering method, the number of categories is determined. The initialized centers selected by center density keep the cluster results constant, enhancing the stability of clustering results. Besides, constructing Generalized basic Probability Assignment (GBPA) modules in a conservative way improves the reliability of the results. The mass of empty set in combined GBPAs is the indicator of the number of categories. Experiments on real and artificial data sets are conducted to show the effectiveness.     

An ECR-PCR rule for fusion of evidences defined on a non-exclusive framework of discernment

In the research of uncertain information processing, Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) provides a framework for dealing with uncertain information, where evidence is defined on a Frame of Discernment (FOD) consisting of mutually exclusive elements. However, the requirement of exclusiveness on FOD sometimes is not satisfied, as shown in Dezert-Smarandache Theory(DSmT), a derivative of DST. In DSmT, the non-exclusiveness is expressed by propositions’ intersection and the fusion of evidence is realized through a Proportional Conflict Redistribution (PCR) rule. In order to handle non-exclusive FODs, a new framework called D Number Theory (DNT) has been proposed recently, which quantifies the non-exclusive degree between propositions different from DSmT. In previous studies, an Exclusive Conflict Redistribution (ECR) rule has been designed in DNT to implement the fusion of evidence defined on a non-exclusive FOD, but there are some deficiencies in the ECR rule. In this paper, a new rule called ECR-PCR rule is proposed by combining the ECR and PCR rules to better implement the fusion of evidence defined on a non-exclusive FOD. Within the proposed rule, the definition of conflict utilizes the idea of ECR’s exclusive conflict, and the disposal of conflict is following the idea of PCR’s proportional redistribution. Properties of the ECR-PCR rule are presented. The effectiveness of the proposed new rule is verified through numerical examples and applications, in comparison with other fusion methods.     

De-combination of belief function based on optimization

In the theory of belief functions, the evidence combination is a kind of decision-level information fusion. Given two or more Basic Belief Assignments(BBAs) originated from different information sources, the combination rule is used to combine them to expect a better decision result. When only a combined BBA is given and original BBAs are discarded, if one wants to analyze the difference between the information sources, evidence de-combination is needed to determine the original BBAs. Evidence d...     

Novel moderate transformation of fuzzy membership function into basic belief assignment

In information fusion, the uncertain information from different sources might be modeled with different theoretical frameworks. When one needs to fuse the uncertain information represented by different uncertainty theories, constructing the transformation between different frameworks is crucial. Various transformations of a Fuzzy Membership Function (FMF) into a Basic Belief Assignment (BBA) have been proposed, where the transformations based on uncertainty maximization and minimization can determine the BBA without preselecting the focal elements. However, these two transformations that based on uncertainty optimization emphasize the extreme cases of uncertainty. To avoid extreme attitudinal bias, a trade-off or moderate BBA with the uncertainty degree between the minimal and maximal ones is more preferred. In this paper, two moderate transformations of an FMF into a trade-off BBA are proposed. One is the weighted average based transformation and the other is the optimization-based transformation with weighting mechanism, where the weighting factor can be user-specified or determined with some prior information. The rationality and effectiveness of our transformations are verified through numerical examples and classification examples.     

Timeliness optimization of unmanned aerial vehicle lossy communications for internet-of-things

Information freshness is a key factor for Internet-of-Things(Io T) to make appropriate decisions and operations. This paper proposes an analytical framework for evaluating the timeliness performance of the Io T system based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) lossy communications.The performance analysis consists of the outage probability analysis and the Age-of-Information(Ao I) analysis with outages. To begin with, we solve a lossy coding problem formulated from the UAV communication system, and d...