一类强耦合强不确定性强非线性快时变系统复合控制

分析一类强耦合强不确定性强非线性快时变系统的控制问题。基于系统力学特性和动力学特性，提出一种复合控制方法。该复合控制方法由三个核心模块组成，依次为强耦合强不确定性控制模块、强非线性快时变控制模块、智能调度模块。以某典型强耦合强不确定性强非线性快时变特性飞行器对象为例，给出了采用该复合控制方法的详细设计。最后，在精确的仿真模型基础上，考虑天地不一致性情况，进行了多组仿真分析，仿真结果表明，该方法有效、可靠。     

Reliability estimation of mechanical seals based on bivariate dependence analysis and considering model uncertainty

The reliability estimation of mechanical seals is of crucial importance due to their wide applications in pumps in various mechanical systems. Failure of mechanical seals might cause leakage, and might lead to system failure and other relevant consequences. In this study, the reliability estimation for mechanical seals based on bivariate dependence analysis and considering model uncertainty is proposed. The friction torque and leakage rate are two degradation performance indicators of mechanical seals that can be described by the Wiener process, Gamma process, and inverse Gaussian process. The dependence between the two indicators can be described by different copula functions. Then the model uncertainty is considered in the reliability estimation using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) method, while the unknown parameters in the model are estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A numerical simulation study and fatigue crack study are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the BMA method to capture model uncertainty. A degradation test of mechanical seals is conducted to verify the proposed model. The optimal stochastic process models for two performance indicators and copula function are determined based on the degradation data. The results show the necessity of using the BMA method in degradation modeling.     

威胁级别判断技术的研究

介绍了影响威胁级别的各种因素及威胁级别的计算模型，提出了基于非线性结构的威胁因素对威胁级别的树形权值分配法，给出了各威胁因素隶属度的确定方法。此外，还以某型地空导弹为例，介绍了突防航迹的威胁总量以及速度因素对威胁级别的影响，为进一步开展飞机航迹规划和任务规划研究提供了参考。     

宽带天线的计算机辅助校准

介绍了基于弗里斯传输原理校准各种宽带天线的原理、方法及条件，论述了计算机辅助校准方案设计，并对测量不确定度进行了详细的分析。     

测试系统成本控制与相对不确定度分配方法研究

根据动态规划原理，提出以控制成本为前提、利用计算机软件辅助计算对复杂测试系统的相对不确定度进行合理分配的方法。这种方法既能满足成本控制又能保证系统的相对不确定度指标的要求。     

透光率/雾度仪校准结果的不确定度评定

主要讨论了透光率/雾度仪的校准方法,并对校准结果的测量不确定度进行了评定.     

不确定性因素下航班延误波及建模与分析

针对机场终端区日益严重的航班延误,提出了一种基于有色－时间Petri网的不确定性因素下航班延误波及分析模型。模型综合考虑航班运行尾流、跑道运行模式、跑道占用时间等运行安全间隔约束,同时根据连续航班间的信息更新,设计进离场航班序列动态调整流程,并由计算模型可得出航班延误总架次及时间。最后,依据历史延误数据分析得出不确定性因素延误的概率分布。选取上海浦东机场为背景对模型进行仿真验证,仿真结果表明,所构建模型可用于战略阶段的航班延误波及程度与过程的评估。     

更准确、更精确、更高效——高超声速流动数值模拟研究进展

从准度、精度和效率3方面回顾了近几十年来高超声速流动数值模拟研究的进展。在物理模型方面,介绍了高超声速数值模拟中高温气体效应、稀薄气体效应以及湍流效应的建模与模拟,基于雷诺平均Navier-Stokes(RANS)方程重点对现阶段较为关注的高超声速边界层转捩的模式理论研究进行了介绍。在空间离散算法方面,主要介绍了高超声速数值模拟中常用的二阶精度迎风格式以及高阶精度格式的发展及其应用。在时间推进方面,主要回顾了隐式时间推进方法的发展及其应用。在误差和不确定度估计方面,主要介绍了其概念、来源以及常用的分析方法,同时给出了迭代误差估计、Richardson外插法以及敏感性导数方法等初步研究结果。最后,讨论了高超声速流动数值模拟中下一步需关注的问题。     

Epistemic uncertainty quantification in flutter analysis using evidence theory

Aimed at evaluating the structural stability and flutter risk of the system, this paper manages to quantify epistemic uncertainty in flutter analysis using evidence theory, including both parametric uncertainty and method selection uncertainty, on the basis of information from limited experimental data of uncertain parameters. Two uncertain variables of the actuator coupling system with unknown probability distributions, that is bending and torsional stiffness, which are both described with multiple intervals and the basic belief assignment(BBA) extricated from the modal test of actuator coupling systems, are taken into account. Considering the difference in dealing with experimental data by different persons and the reliability of various information sources, a new combination rule of evidence––the generalized lower triangular matrices method is formed to acquire the combined BBA. Finally the parametric uncertainty and the epistemic uncertainty of flutter analysis method selection are considered in the same system to realize quantification. A typical rudder of missile is selected to examine the present method, and the dangerous range of velocity as well as relevant belief and plausibility functions is obtained. The results suggest that the present method is effective in obtaining the lower and upper bounds of flutter probability and assessing flutter risk of structures with limited experimental data of uncertain parameters and the belief of different methods.     

基于切比雪夫多项式展开的转子动力特性区间分析

基于切比雪夫多项式展开,建立了转子系统临界转速和稳态响应区间分析方法,能在仅具有参数上下界的情况下获得结果分布区间。针对临界转速区间分析问题,将支承刚度、密度和弹性模量视为区间变量,建立转子系统固有频率的切比雪夫多项式表达式,最终获得临界转速区间,临界转速误差不超过0.07%。在固有特性分析基础上,应用切比雪夫方法求解转子系统的稳态响应,并由模态叠加原理对响应区间进行修正,解决了固有特性不确定性较大时稳态响应求解精度不足的问题。与蒙特卡洛插值结果相比,响应上界误差不超过8%。基于切比雪夫展开的非确定分析方法,不需修改原结构的振动微分方程。结果表明该方法结合商业有限元软件后,应用简单,并具有理想的精度。