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671.
672.
《中国航空学报》2023,36(5):306-327
Evidential Reasoning (ER) rule, which can combine multiple pieces of independent evidence conjunctively, is widely applied in multiple attribute decision analysis. However, the assumption of independence among evidence is often not satisfied, resulting in ER rule inapplicable. In this paper, an Evidential Reasoning rule for Dependent Evidence combination (ERr-DE) is developed. Firstly, the aggregation sequence of multiple pieces of evidence is determined according to evidence reliability. On this basis, a calculation method of evidence Relative Total Dependence Coefficient (RTDC) is proposed using the distance correlation method. Secondly, as a discounting factor, RTDC is introduced into the ER rule framework, and the ERr-DE model is formulated. The aggregation process of two pieces of dependent evidence by ERr-DE is investigated, which is then generalized to aggregate multiple pieces of non-independent evidence. Thirdly, sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the relationship between the model output and the RTDC. The properties of sensitivity coefficient are explored and mathematically proofed. The conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process of ERr-DE and the properties of sensitivity coefficient are verified by two numerical examples respectively. Finally, the practical application of the ERr-DE is validated by a case study on the performance assessment of satellite turntable system. 相似文献
673.
《中国航空学报》2023,36(1):369-385
In information fusion, the uncertain information from different sources might be modeled with different theoretical frameworks. When one needs to fuse the uncertain information represented by different uncertainty theories, constructing the transformation between different frameworks is crucial. Various transformations of a Fuzzy Membership Function (FMF) into a Basic Belief Assignment (BBA) have been proposed, where the transformations based on uncertainty maximization and minimization can determine the BBA without preselecting the focal elements. However, these two transformations that based on uncertainty optimization emphasize the extreme cases of uncertainty. To avoid extreme attitudinal bias, a trade-off or moderate BBA with the uncertainty degree between the minimal and maximal ones is more preferred. In this paper, two moderate transformations of an FMF into a trade-off BBA are proposed. One is the weighted average based transformation and the other is the optimization-based transformation with weighting mechanism, where the weighting factor can be user-specified or determined with some prior information. The rationality and effectiveness of our transformations are verified through numerical examples and classification examples. 相似文献
674.
Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s judgement will directly affect the assessment accuracy. In addition,there are many criteria involved in the missile design alternatives. Some criteria with poor performance may be compensated by other criteria with excellent performance, and then it is impossible to find the truly opt... 相似文献
675.
The common design of serial civil aircraft, an important strategy of modern civil aircraft research and develop-ment, minimizes the whole life cycle cost of civil aircraft through asset reuse and resource sharing. However, the existing estimating model for the R&D cost of civil aircraft ignores the effects of common design, so the value estimated by estimating derivative models is significantly inconsistent with the actual one. To solve this problem, a novel assessment method for civil aircr... 相似文献
676.
677.
Due to the excellent performance in complex systems modeling under small samples and uncertainty, Belief Rule Base(BRB) expert system has been widely applied in fault diagnosis. However, the fault diagnosis process for complex mechanical equipment normally needs multiple attributes, which can lead to the rule number explosion problem in BRB, and limit the efficiency and accuracy. To solve this problem, a novel Combination Belief Rule Base(C-BRB) model based on Directed Acyclic Graph(DAG) structu... 相似文献