The impact of different background errors in the assimilation of satellite radiances and in-situ observational data using WRFDA for three rainfall events over Iran

Satellite radiances and in-situ observations are assimilated through Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system into Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model over Iran and its neighboring area. Domain specific background error based on x and y components of wind speed (UV) control variables is calculated for WRFDA system and some sensitivity experiments are carried out to compare the impact of global background error and the domain specific background errors, both on the precipitation and 2-m temperature forecasts over Iran. Three precipitation events that occurred over the country during January, September and October 2014 are simulated in three different experiments and the results for precipitation and 2-m temperature are verified against the verifying surface observations. Results show that using domain specific background error improves 2-m temperature and 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts consistently, while global background error may even degrade the forecasts compared to the experiments without data assimilation. The improvement in 2-m temperature is more evident during the first forecast hours and decreases significantly as the forecast length increases.     

A composite disturbance observer and H_∞ control scheme for flexible spacecraft with measurement delay and input delay

In this paper, the attitude control algorithm of flexible spacecraft with unknown measurement delay and input delay based on disturbance observer is designed. The influence of measurement delay and input delay on the attitude control system and disturbance observer is analyzed. The disturbance estimation error equation is transformed into a differential system with a pure delay. Then, the observer gain is chosen based on the 3/2 stability theorem to ensure the stability and disturbance attenuation performance of the pure delay system. Next, the controller gain is designed based on the Linear Matrix Inequality(LMI) approach to guarantee the stability of the composite system and achieve H_∞ performance with two additive delays. The simulation results show that the proposed method can improve the anti-disturbance ability of the attitude control system.     

基于预测模型迭代优化的改进比例导引律

为了提高对加速度时变机动目标的制导精度,将预测决策理论与传统比例导引(PN)相结合,提出了一种通过泰勒级数预测模型迭代控制加速度修正项的改进比例导引律。首先,以预设的低阶泰勒级数预测模型预测特定时间的位移,并计算位移预测值与测量值的差值;然后,通过迭代方法逐阶增加泰勒级数预测模型阶数,直至满足精度要求;最后,计算泰勒级数预测模型的二阶导数,修正比例导引律的加速度指令。仿真结果表明,传统PN和APN的脱靶量分别约为195 m和95 m,提出的改进比例导引律的脱靶量约为8.3 m,极大地提高了制导精度。     

一种现场可编程门阵列门延时精确调整时序的方法

通过FPGA(现场可编程门阵列)时序模型分析得出FPGA门延时的方案,综合利用FPGA各种布局布线EDA工具,摸索出一套人工干预FPGA布局布线的方法,使FPGA门延时能够有效地用于时序调整,调整精度可达到纳秒级。该方法具有不增加任何额外器件,成本低、高效方便的特点。     

氧气/醇类燃气发生器启动过程试验研究

对氧气/醇类燃气发生器进行了热态试验,对启动过程进行了描述和分析,并引入点火时间和着火延迟两个参数深入研究了燃气发生器的启动规律。研究表明,燃烧室流量密度的增加对燃气发生器的点火时间影响不大,但会引起着火延迟的明显增加;时序中氧气与燃料两种组元进入燃烧室的时刻对启动过程有较大的影响,二者存在一个最优的时间间隔,可以保证燃气发生器快速、平稳、安全的启动。     

卫星群时延特性测量新方案的设计和实现

设计并实现了适用于卫星整星综合测试的群时延测量新方案。与传统模拟解调方案相比,此方案对信号采样后直接进行数字信号处理,采用数字解调、估计相位的方式测量群时延,减小了引入的噪声和对信号的畸变,适用于不同卫星的群时延特性测试,省去了时间差测试设备,降低了测试成本。实际测试结果表明,此方案在C频段的测量精度小于1ns,UHF频段的测量精度小于16ns,满足卫星群时延测试要求,为卫星测试的自动化、通用化奠定了基础。     

嵌入维数自适应最小二乘支持向量机状态时间序列预测方法

 针对航空发动机状态时间序列预测中嵌入维数难于有效选取的问题,提出一种基于嵌入维数自适应最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的预测方法。该方法将嵌入维数作为影响状态时间序列预测精度的重?问?以交叉验证误差为评价准则,利用粒子群优化（PSO）进化搜索LSSVM预测模型的最优超参数与嵌入维数,同时通过矩阵变换原理提高交叉验证过程的计算效率,并最终建立优化后的LSSVM预测模型。航空发动机排气温度（EGT）预测实例表明,该方法可自适应选取适用于状态时间序列预测的最优嵌入维数且预测精度高,适用于航空发动机状态时间序列预测。     

基于PSO_LS-SVM的装备研制费用预测研究

在简要介绍了粒子群优化算法基本原理的基础上,建立了基于POS_LS-SVM的装备研制费用预测模型,并应用实例进行了验证。结果表明,采用PSO_LS-SVM方法进行装备研制费用预测,得到的预测结果精度更高、计算速度更快。     

基于加速磨损试验的止推轴承磨损寿命预测

为进行耐磨性良好的止推轴承寿命验证,结合退化模型进行了基于加速磨损试验的止推轴承寿命预测研究,建立了止推轴承加速磨损寿命方程.在失效机理分析基础上,以加载力为加速应力开展了7 200 h的止推轴承加速磨损试验,得到反映耐磨性能下降的体积磨损量变化数据,预测得到置信度90%时,止推轴承在使用条件下运行10 a的可靠度为0.94.该项研究表明,对磨损进程极为缓慢的高可靠性、长寿命止推轴承,利用加速磨损试验数据预测其寿命,能节约试验时间和费用.      

相似预报法在电离层TEC短期预报中的应用

引入相似离度衡量样本间的相似程度, 并利用相似预报法对厦门一个GPS台站2004年电离层TEC观测数据进行了24,h预报试验. 结果表明, 预报相对误差与地磁活动水平密切相关, 地磁扰动条件下相对误差明显高于地磁平静时刻; 预报相对平均误差为18.022%, 地磁扰动时为44.896%, 地磁平静条件下为11.676%; 预报相对误差在10%, 20%, 30%, 40%以内的累积比例分别为38.209%, 65.075%, 84.984%,90.448%. 如果使用中纬地区或地磁平静期间的电离层TEC数据, 预报效果会更好.