一种新型综合性靶场安全系统及其检验测试结果

本文首先简要介绍战略导弹发射场和航天发射场靶场安全系统的作用、特点、主要技术要求,接着介绍按美国空军航天司令部要求,由空军研究所开发的基于GPS弹道测量技术,外测、遥测、遥控综合为一体的机动型靶场安全系统——BMRST的构成及其经多种检验测试的结果。     

循环电载荷下大功率LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命预测

随着大功率发光二极管（LED）在照明领域的普及与广泛应用,可靠性逐渐成为研究的重点。大功率LED封装器件中金引线疲劳断裂失效一直是制约其可靠性的重要因素。通过针对大功率LED封装器件中的金引线力学仿真与功率循环试验相结合的方法,首先确定循环电载荷条件下该型LED的主要失效原因为金引线疲劳断裂,其次提出基于电流加速模型的加速因子提取方法和基于应变幅值的Coffin-Manson解析寿命预测方法,最终完成对LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命的预测和试验验证。研究结果表明:所提方法具有较高的寿命预测精度,可以满足大功率LED封装器件可靠性快速、准确评估的要求。      

45°(N)纬度带的Klobuchar like电离层延迟季节修正模型与评估

电离层延迟是全球卫星导航系统（GNSS）的主要误差源之一。对于装配GNSS单频接收机的航空器,选择简单有效的Klobuchar广播电离层模型来改正电离层延迟误差,其修正率为50%～60%。针对45°（N）纬度带,提出了更高电离层修正需求。考虑到季节因素对中高纬度地区电离层的显著影响,利用GIMs（Global Ionospheric Maps）分析了昼夜中TEC（Total Electron Content）的峰值和谷值随季节（年积日）的变化,建立了一种适用于45°（N）纬度带的Klobuchar like电离层模型。该模型不增加广播模型系数,新模型的夜间和VTEC高峰时电离层修正率分别达到了82%和80%,表明在穿刺点集中的45°(N)纬度地区使用该模型可以更精确地描述该地区的电离层,帮助航空器实现更高精度的定位。     

J2轨道模型对月地激光通信预瞄准精度影响研究

基于J_2轨道预测模型,设计了不同倾角和轨道高度圆轨道月球卫星,通过将J_2轨道预测模型预瞄准仿真结果与直接积分RKF7(8)法仿真结果相对比,研究了不同类型月球卫星轨道对-Y面卫星舱板激光通信终端瞄准精度的影响。仿真结果表明,J_2轨道预测模型可以满足月球极地卫星月地激光通信要求,当轨道高度为1 000 km和2 000 km的时候,10 min方位角偏差不超过40μrad,而俯仰角偏差仅为7μrad时,在一定程度上J2轨道预测模型可以满足月地激光通信预瞄准要求。     

Establishment of atmospheric weighted mean temperature model in the polar regions

Due to the special geographical location and extreme climate environment, the polar regions (Antarctic and Arctic) have an important impact on global climate change. Atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter in the retrieval of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the zenith wet delay (ZWD) of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal propagation. In this paper, the correlation between weighted mean temperature and surface temperature (Ts) is studied firstly. It is shown that the correlation coefficients between Tm and Ts are 0.93 in the Antarctic and 0.94 in the Arctic. The linear regression Tm model and quadratic function Tm model of the Antarctic and the Arctic are established respectively using the radiosonde profiles of 12 stations in the Antarctic and 58 stations in the Arctic from 2008 to 2015. The accuracies of the linear regression Tm model, the quadratic function Tm model and GPT2w Tm model which is a state-of-the-art global Tm model are verified using the radiosonde profiles from 2016 to 2018 in the Antarctic and Arctic. Root Mean Square (RMS) errors of the linear regression Tm model, the quadratic function Tm model and GPT2w Tm model in the Antarctic are 3.07 K, 2.87 K and 4.32 K respectively, and those in the Arctic are 3.53 K, 3.38 K and 4.82 K, which indicates that the quadratic function Tm model has a higher accuracy compared to linear regression Tm model, and the accuracies of the two regional Tm models are better than that of GPT2w Tm model in the polar regions. In order to better evaluate the accuracy of Tm in the PWV retrieval, the PWV values of radiosondes are used for comparisons as the reference value. The RMS errors of PWV derived from the two Tm models are similar for 1.28 mm in the Antarctic and 1 mm in the Arctic respectively. In addition, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of Tm are analyzed in the polar regions by spectral analysis of Tm data using fast Fourier transform. The results show that the Tm has obvious seasonality and annual periodicity in the polar regions, and the maximum difference between warm season and cold season is about 63 K. After comparing and analyzing the influences of latitude, longitude and elevation on the Tm in the polar regions, it is found that latitude and elevation have a greater influence on the Tm than the longitude. As the latitude and elevation increase, the Tm decreases, and vice versa in the polar regions.     

Maximal admissible mode decision delay in terminal guidance

Mode decision-maker is a critical component in the logic-based Integrated Estimation and Guidance(IEG) system. For the best possible estimation and guidance performance, the mode decision delay of the mode decision-maker should be limited to a range as small as possible. This paper presents a numerical method for computing the maximal admissible mode decision delay that varies with time-to-go. Particular attention has been paid to highly maneuvering target interception in terminal guidance. The results of this research offer useful guidelines for the design of the mode decision-maker in IEG systems.     

Quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk induced by coupled multi-factor under icing conditions

Aircraft icing has been proven to be one of the most serious threats to flight safety. During the analysis of flight risk under icing conditions, quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk are quite essential as they provide safe manipulation strategies in intricate conditions. However, they are rarely studied. Since the icing flight accidents are the result of the coupling of multiple unfavorable factors, in present study, we have proposed a method to quantitatively assess flight risk induced by multi-factor coupling under icing conditions by Monte-Carlo simulation and multivariate extreme value theory. The results demonstrate that the flight risk probability increases with the rise of unfavorable factors. Besides, a flight risk visualization method named flight safety window has been presented to build the flight risk distribution cloud maps in different complex conditions. The cloud maps show that the icing would give rise to atrophy of the safety scope, and the consequence would be even more severe when coupled with other more unfavorable factors. The proposed methods in this study would be useful in flight risk analysis under icing conditions and can enhance the pilot's situational awareness in selecting correct strategies within the safety zone to avoid unsafe manipulation.     

基于TLE的弹道系数计算方法及应用分析

针对仅使用两行要素（Two Line Element，TLE）作为数据源的应用需求，研究了基于TLE轨道衰减的弹道系数计算方法。介绍了一种常用的基于两组TLE的直接计算法，分析TLE选取间隔对结果精度的影响；提出了一种基于多组TLE的迭代计算方法，以降低异常TLE对计算结果的影响；从弹道系数计算效果、在再入预报中的应用等方面对这两种方法进行比较分析。结果表明，两种方法各有优劣，基于多组TLE的迭代计算法稳定性更高、受TLE精度的影响更小；由于数据区间更短，基于两组TLE的计算结果对短期轨道衰减特性反应得更准确，用于临近再入时的预报效果更好。     

Statistical study of the time delay of ionospheric TEC storms to geomagnetic storms in Taoyuan,Taiwan

We have studied the time delay of ionospheric storms to geomagnetic storms at a low latitude station Taoyuan (25.02°N, 121.21°E), Taiwan using the Dst and TEC data during 126 geomagnetic storms from the year 2002 to 2014. In addition to the known local time dependence of the time delay, the statistics show that the time delay has significant seasonal characteristics, which can be explained within the framework of the seasonal characteristics of the ionospheric TEC. The data also show that there is no correlation between the time delay and the intensity of magnetic storms. As for the solar activity dependence of the time delay, the results show that there is no relationship between the time delay of positive storms and the solar activity, whereas the time delay of negative storms has weakly negative dependence on the solar activity, with correlation coefficient −0.41. Especially, there are two kinds of extreme events: pre-storm response events and long-time delay events. All of the pre-storm response events occurred during 15–20 LT, manifesting the Equator Ionospheric Anomaly (EIA) feature at Taoyuan. Moreover, the common features of the pre-storm response events suggest the storm sudden commencement (SSC) and weak geomagnetic disturbance before the main phase onset (MPO) of magnetic storms are two main possible causes of the pre-storm response events. By analyzing the geomagnetic indices during the events with long-time delay, we infer that this kind of events may not be caused by magnetic storms, and they might belong to ionospheric Q-disturbances.     

Orbit determination and prediction of GEO satellite of BeiDou during repositioning maneuver

In order to establish a continuous GEO satellite orbit during repositioning maneuvers, a suitable maneuver force model has been established associated with an optimal orbit determination method and strategy. A continuous increasing acceleration is established by constructing a constant force that is equivalent to the pulse force, with the mass of the satellite decreasing throughout maneuver. This acceleration can be added to other accelerations, such as solar radiation, to obtain the continuous acceleration of the satellite. The orbit determination method and strategy are illuminated, with subsequent assessment of the orbit being determined and predicted accordingly. The orbit of the GEO satellite during repositioning maneuver can be determined and predicted by using C-Band pseudo-range observations of the BeiDou GEO satellite with COSPAR ID 2010-001A in 2011 and 2012. The results indicate that observations before maneuver do affect orbit determination and prediction, and should therefore be selected appropriately. A more precise orbit and prediction can be obtained compared to common short arc methods when observations starting 1 day prior the maneuver and 2 h after the maneuver are adopted in POD (Precise Orbit Determination). The achieved URE (User Range Error) under non-consideration of satellite clock errors is better than 2 m within the first 2 h after maneuver, and less than 3 m for further 2 h of orbit prediction.