Properties of solar X-ray flares and proton event forecasting

X-ray flares and acceleration processes are in one complex of sporadic solar events (together with CMEs, radio bursts, magnetic field dissipation and reconnection). This supposes the connection (if not physical, but at least statistical) between characteristics of the solar energetic proton events and flares. The statistical analysis indicates that probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends heavily on the flare importance and their heliolongitude. These relations may be used for elaboration of the forecasting models, which allow us to calculate probability of the solar proton events from the X-ray observations.     

An optimal selection of probability distribution functions for unsupervised land cover classification of PALSAR-2 data

Different types of classification techniques are available in the literature for the classification of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data into various land cover classes. Various SAR images are available for land cover classification such as ALOS PALSAR (PALSAR-1, PALSAR-2), RADARSAT and ENVISAT. In this paper, we have attempted to explore probability distribution function (pdf) based land cover classification using PALSAR-2 data. Over 20 different statistical distribution functions are analyzed for different classes based on statistical parameters. Probability distribution functions are selected based on Chi-squared goodness of fit test for each individual class. A decision tree based classifier is developed for classification based on the selected pdf functions and its statistical parameters. The proposed classification approach has an accuracy of 83.93%.     

A novel LAAS pseudo-range error over-bound method based on improved pseudo-range error distribution model

The high level of safety demand of civil aviation requests local area augmentation system (LAAS) extremely high navigation integrity performance. A new LAAS pseudo-range error overbound method is proposed in this paper to improve the integrity of LAAS. Firstly, a more practical pseudo-range error distribution model is established. Then, by calculating the relationship between the statistical uncertainty of the model parameter and the integrity risk, a new method is proposed to calculate the pseudo-range error over-bound model. This method can effectively reduce the inflation factor and the resulting conservativeness of the over-bound model. Comparative experiments show that the method proposed in this paper performs better and satisfies the requirements of real applications.     

有人驾驶飞机（固定翼）飞行品质的修改建议

论述了现行国家军用标准（ＧＪＢ－１８５－８６）的一些不足之处，从指导思想、飞行吕质要求的逻辑结构、故障概率、飞行操纵系统、满足要求的论证及要求的内容等几个方面提出一些修改建议，以供修订新标准时参考。     

基于显式表达式的空间目标最大碰撞概率分析

最大碰撞概率的计算在空间目标碰撞风险评估中具有重要意义。基于碰撞概率的显式 表达式,利用一元函数和二元函数求极值的方法分别讨论了目标误差椭球形状固定和不定两 种情况下最大碰撞概率的计算方法,得到了两种情况下最大碰撞概率的表达式。对于误差椭 球形状固定的情况得到了碰撞概率最大时两目标位置协方差的取值,对于误差椭球不定情况 得到了碰撞概率最大时径向联合方差的取值和水平面内联合方差所满足的关系。分析了最大 碰撞概率的影响因素,讨论了水平面内误差方差的耦合特性。对今年二月发生的美俄卫星碰 撞事件进行了分析,得到误差椭球任意形状时最大碰撞概率为1.864E-3。
     

基于参数优化的截尾序贯检验法

截尾序贯概率比检验法和序贯网图检验法（SMT）是在序贯概率比检验法（SPRT）的基础上发展起来的2种方法,可进一步控制试验次数。但是这些截尾序贯方法的停止边界仍有待优化,本文以最常见的截尾SPRT为例,说明决定停止边界的参数的取值直接影响了最大试验样本量,且存在最佳取值。并以此为基础,对SMT和传统的SPRT进行了综合比较,发现截尾SMT并不优于传统的截尾SPRT,它不过是一种广义形式的截尾序贯检验法,SPRT的研究重点应该是截尾形式的构造。最后本文提供了一种曲线形式的截尾序贯检验法.     

光栅式传动链误差测量系统的不确定度分析

为了进一步改善传动链误差测量系统的性能，以谐波减速器为被测对象，通过推导测量系统不确定度评定的一般方法，找出了测量系统的各个不确定度分量；通过分析系统中A类和B类不确定度，阐述了各个不确定度分量对整个测试系统的影响，提出了减少不确定度的相关措施，为优化传动误差测量系统的测量提供了指导。     

固体火箭发动机概率设计数字模拟

应用数字模拟技术，对固体火箭发动机进行概率设计，并将计算结果与用一次二阶矩可靠度分析方法得到的结果进行比较，结果表明，在应力和强度分布函数及其功能函数相同的情况下，两者结果一致。     

概率具有普遍意义

在事物必然的性质、方向和由此决定的活动范围之外，它发生、发展的每一具体变化都是偶然的。为了抓住偶然，就要求助于概率，概率已经成为我们的重要工具。     

空气耦合超声金属/非金属粘结缺陷检测

为提高SRM粘结结构脱粘缺陷检测效率,实现大面积快速自动检测,基于漏兰姆波检测原理,提出使用空气耦合超声兰姆波检测技术,对钢/树脂/橡胶粘结结构进行检测研究。使用二维傅里叶变换识别粘结结构中兰姆波模态,从兰姆波波结构出发分析了不同模态兰姆波对于脱粘缺陷的敏感性;使用空气耦合检测系统对不同尺寸缺陷进行定量检测,最后使用概率损伤成像算法对缺陷进行成像。结果表明：兰姆波幅值随脱粘缺陷的尺寸增大而增大,不同兰姆波模态检测灵敏度不同,检测灵敏度高的模态其离面位移更大,使用800 kHz频率的S₀模态检测灵敏度高于A₀模态,兰姆波成像算法能够快速准确的对脱粘区域进行定位成像。空气耦合超声兰姆波技术能够快速有效地对SRM脱粘缺陷进行检测,提高了检测效率,为非接触超声的实际应用提供了有益探索。