可靠性灵敏度分析的一种偏倚蒙特卡罗方法

根据可靠性灵敏度分析的需求和特点,选择似然比方法作为基础的导数/梯度估计方法.立足经典可靠性系统和基于元件的蒙特卡罗方法,推导了原始蒙特卡罗仿真环境下的似然比导数估计方法.为加速仿真,进一步提出了一种偏倚技巧,该技巧在系统结构函数的基础上定义一个应用重要抽样的无偏估计量,并通过最小化该估计量的方差来获得最优偏倚参数值.该估计量拥有的一个重要优势是其方差优化任务可以分解到单个元件的层次上进行,从而避免了高维优化的难题.通过一个可解析求解的简单实例验证了似然比导数估计方法应用于可靠性灵敏度分析的有效性,以及所提出的偏倚技巧对于降低导数估计方差的有效性.对于所考虑的实例系统,提出的偏倚蒙特卡罗方法对各个感兴趣的量都给出了很好的估计,与原始蒙特卡罗方法相比,各个估计量的方差均降低了至少6个数量级.     

基于蒙特卡洛法的空间机器人工作空间计算

工作空间是衡量机器人工作能力的一个重要运动学指标。由于存在动力学耦合,空间机器人工作空间分析比地面机器人复杂得多。文章采用数值方法,即蒙特卡洛法分析空间机器人的工作空间。首先,采用虚拟机械臂（VM）建模方法建立空间机器人位置级运动学模型,并推导出了基座位姿固定、自由飞行、自由漂浮三种模式下的位置级运动学方程;然后,提出...     

Plume aerodynamic effects of cushion engine in lunar landing

 During the second period of China "Tanyue" Project, the explorer will softland on the moon. The cushion engines are used to decelerate the explorer and reduce the impact on the lunar ground. It is necessary to study its plume effects on the explorer component. The self-developed PWS (Plume WorkStation) software based on direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is used to simulate the plume effects of two 150 N engines. Due to the complex structure of the explorer, PWS uses a decoupling method to treat the boundary mesh, which mainly interacts with simulation particles, and has no relation with the computational grids. After the analytical expressions of plane surfaces and curved surfaces of each boundary block are given, the particle position within or without the boundary blocks can be easily determined. Finally the 3D plume field of two 150 N engines is simulated. The pressure, temperature and velocity distributions of plume field are clearly presented by three characteristic slices. The aerodynamic effects on the explorer bottom, the landfall legs and antenna are separately shown. The compression influence on the plume flow of four landfall legs can be observed.     

The extension of the INCL model for simulation of shielding in space

Radiation hazard for space missions is mainly due to cosmic ray protons, helium nuclei and light ions, whose energy spectrum is maximum around 1 GeV per nucleon but remains non-negligible for energies up to 15 GeV per nucleon. Nuclear reactions induced by high energy protons are often described by intranuclear cascade plus evaporation models. The attention is focused here on the Liège Intranuclear Cascade model (INCL), which has been shown to reproduce fairly well a great deal of experimental data for nucleon-induced reactions in the 200 MeV to 2 GeV range, when coupled with the ABLA evaporation-fission code. In order to extend the model to other conditions relevant for space radiation, three improvements of INCL are under development. They are reported on here. First, the reaction model has been extended to nucleon–nucleus reactions at incident energies up to 15 GeV, mainly by the inclusion of additional pion production channels in nucleon–nucleon collisions during the cascade. Second, a coalescence mechanism for the emission of light charged particles has been implemented recently. Finally, the model has been modified in order to accommodate light ions as projectiles. First results are shown and compared with illustrative experimental data. Implications for issues concerning radiation protection in space are discussed.     

热塑性成形过程微观组织模拟研究新进展

金属在热塑性成形过程中微观组织发生晶粒形核、长大、相变、再结晶等一系列的复杂变化,直接影响加工过程与产品的机械性能。本文对目前应用在热成形微观组织演变模拟方面的主要模拟技术作了比较全面的评述,对比了不同微观组织模拟方法,总结了利用各种模拟技术所取得的最新研究成果。     

Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Transonic Flutter Using Improved Line Sampling Technique

The improved line sampling (LS) technique, an effective numerical simulation method, is employed to analyze the probabilistic characteristics and reliability sensitivity of flutter with random structural parameter in transonic flow. The improved LS technique is a novel methodology for reliability and sensitivity analysis of high dimensionality and low probability problem with implicit limit state function, and it does not require any approximating surrogate of the implicit limit state equation. The improved LS is used to estimate the flutter reliability and the sensitivity of a two-dimensional wing, in which some structural properties, such as frequency, parameters of gravity center and mass ratio, are considered as random variables. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based unsteady aerodynamic reduced order model (ROM) method is used to construct the aerodynamic state equations. Coupling structural state equations with aerodynamic state equations, the safety margin of flutter is founded by using the critical velocity of flutter. The results show that the improved LS technique can effectively decrease the computational cost in the random uncertainty analysis of flutter. The reliability sensitivity, defined by the partial derivative of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of random variable, can help to identify the important parameters and guide the structural optimization design.     

离子束加工中工件吸收热功率分析与建模研究

利用束流修正理论和蒙特卡罗模拟法对离子束加工中某一工艺参数下工件吸收的功率进行理论建模,然后采用测温实验对理论模型进行验证.设计实验时,利用有限元仿真确定了一种合理的轰击靶材铜,简化了实验并且方便了计算.     

Drag coefficient modeling for grace using Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Drag coefficient is a major source of uncertainty in predicting the orbit of a satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO). Computational methods like the Test Particle Monte Carlo (TPMC) and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are important tools in accurately computing physical drag coefficients. However, the methods are computationally expensive and cannot be employed real time. Therefore, modeling of the physical drag coefficient is required. This work presents a technique of developing parameterized drag coefficients models using the DSMC method. The technique is validated by developing a model for the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite. Results show that drag coefficients computed using the developed model for GRACE agree to within 1% with those computed using DSMC.     

Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulation of EB-PVD Film： Effects of Substrate Temperature

The 2D kinetic Monte Carlo （KMC） simulation was used to study the effects of different substrate temperatures on the microstructure of Ni-Cr films in the process of deposition by the electron beam physical vapor deposition （EB-PVD）. In the KMC model, substrate was assumed to be a ＂surface＂ of tight-packed rows, and the simulation includes two phenomena： adatom-surface collision and adatom diffusion. While the interaction between atoms was described by the embedded atom method, the jumping energy was calculated by the molecular static （MS） calculation. The initial location of the adatom was defined by the Momentum Scheme. The results reveal that there exists a critical substrate temperature which means that the lowest packing density and the highest surface roughness structure will be achieved when the temperature is lower than the smaller critical value, while the roughness of both surfaces and the void contents keep decreasing with the substrate temperature increasing until it reaches the higher critical value. The results also indicate that the critical substrate temperature rises as the deposition rate increases.     

P-S-N曲线试验方案的统计模拟研究

 本文应用蒙特卡洛方法模拟测定材料P-S-N曲线的疲劳试验,确定丁做P-S-N曲线的最佳试验方案。节省大量试验时间和试样。