基于隶属度和LMK-ELM的航空电子部件诊断方法

为提高航空电子部件模块级故障诊断精度，提出一种新的面向"软聚类"的局部多核学习（LMKL）-超限学习机（ELM）离线诊断方法。通过引入模糊C均值聚类对样本空间进行模糊划分，挖掘聚类内部多样性的同时，实现了对过学习的抑制；将模糊划分产生的隶属度信息融入LMKL-ELM的优化过程，运用基于初始-对偶混合优化问题的三步优化策略克服了局部核权重二次非凸的问题，在l₁-范数与l₂-范数约束下分别给出了相应的更新方法。将所提方法应用于某型机前端接收机，结果表明：与4种流行的多核诊断方法相比，该方法可有效避免漏警、抑制虚警，在l₁-范数和l₂-范数约束下，其诊断精度比其他方法的平均值分别提升了4.09%和5.13%。     

Advanced ensemble modeling method for space object state prediction accounting for uncertainty in atmospheric density

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space traffic management activities such as the satellite conjunction analysis. This paper investigates the evolution of orbit error distribution in the presence of atmospheric density uncertainties, which are modeled using probabilistic machine learning techniques. The recently proposed “HASDM-ML,” “CHAMP-ML,” and “MSIS-UQ” machine learning models for density estimation (Licata and Mehta, 2022b; Licata et al., 2022b) are used in this work. The investigation is convoluted because of the spatial and temporal correlation of the atmospheric density values. We develop several Monte Carlo methods, each capturing a different spatiotemporal density correlation, to study the effects of density uncertainty on orbit uncertainty propagation. However, Monte Carlo analysis is computationally expensive, so a faster method based on the Kalman filtering technique for orbit uncertainty propagation is also explored. It is difficult to translate the uncertainty in atmospheric density to the uncertainty in orbital states under a standard extended Kalman filter or unscented Kalman filter framework. This work uses the so-called “consider covariance sigma point (CCSP)” filter that can account for the density uncertainties during orbit propagation. As a test-bed for validation purposes, a comparison between CCSP and Monte Carlo methods of orbit uncertainty propagation is carried out. Finally, using the HASDM-ML, CHAMP-ML, and MSIS-UQ density models, we propose an ensemble approach for orbit uncertainty quantification for four different space weather conditions.     

An ensemble deep learning based shoreline segmentation approach (WaterNet) from Landsat 8 OLI images

Shorelines constantly vary due to natural, urbanization and anthropogenic effects such as global warming, population growth, and environmental pollution. Sustainable monitoring of coastal changes is vital in terms of coastal resource management, environmental preservation and planning. Publicly available Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Manager) images provide accurate, reliable, temporal and up-to-date information about coastal areas. Recently, the use of machine learning and deep learning algorithms have become widespread. In this study, we used our public Landsat 8 OLI satellite image dataset to create a majority voting method which is an ensemble automatic shoreline segmentation system (WaterNet) to obtain shorelines automatically. For this purpose, different deep learning architectures have been utilized namely as Standard U-Net, Dilated U-Net, Fractal U-Net, FC-DenseNet, and Pix2Pix. Also, we have suggested a novel framework to create labeling data from OpenStreetMap service to create a unique dataset called YTU-WaterNet. According to the results, IoU and F1 scores have been calculated as 99.59% and 99.79% for the WaterNet. The results indicate that the WaterNet method outperforms other methods in terms of shoreline extraction from Landsat 8 OLI satellite images.     

基于机器学习的导弹干扰试验效果评估实证研究

针对复杂电磁环境下导弹干扰试验影响因素众多,难以量化,试验数据采集困难以及实验数据中普遍存在类不平衡等问题,基于机器学习创建导弹试验干扰效果评估模型,采用随机森林、支持向量机、朴素贝叶斯、多层感知机等常见模型对导弹试验干扰效果进行评估。特别针对小数据样本中的类不平衡问题提出 2阶段分类模型,采用过采样方式解决类不平衡问题并采用随机森林进行分类。基于开源的导弹干扰效果评估数据,通过实证研究说明,基于过采样的随机森林模型在干扰效果评估问题中具有较强的泛化能力和鲁棒性,在 AUC指标上,该模型比多层感知机模型在中位数上最多提高 60%,建议在后续的试验中采用该模型进行导弹干扰效果评估。     

贝叶斯回归支持向量机的软测量建模方法

提出了一种基于贝叶斯证据框架的回归型支持向量机的参数选择和软测量建模方法。证据框架的第1层推理用来解释支持向量机的训练。证据框架的第2和第3层推理用于自动调整正则化参数和核参数并使其接近最优值。然后,将这种基于贝叶斯证据框架的回归型支持向量机用于估计聚丙烯腈生产过程的质量指标。仿真结果表明了该方法的有效性。     

测量数据部分丢失的非线性系统迭代学习控制

研究非线性离散系统的迭代学习控制．利用并行分配补偿方法(PDC)确定非线性系统的T-S模型,把非线性模型特换为局部线性模型。假定数据丢失的概率已知,采用满足Bernoulli分布的序列来描述测量数据的丢失,研究具有测量数据部分丢失的线性离散系统的迭代学习控制器的设计。结合T-S模型设计了数据丢失的迭代学习控制器,所设计的迭代学习控制器具有期望收敛特性和二次型性能指标。仿真结果表明了该设计方法的有效性。     

加工钛合金大口径深盲孔的研究

钛合金属难加工材料,其深孔加工的难度更为突出,加工质量不易保证。本文通过实验对比,对加工钛合金大口径深盲孔中出现的偏孔、切屑堵塞、切削振动、刀具破损等主要问题进行了分析,提出了解决办法,得出了切削用量的优化参数。由于钛合金的化学亲和作用,深孔加工刀具的导向条表面易于粘附,结果拉伤已加工表面,造成表面粗糙度上升。加大导向条与孔壁的间隙虽可减少导向条表面的粘附,但同时会引起切削振动的加剧。针对这一矛盾,本文着重对加工刀具的导向条分布、导向条与孔壁的间隙以及导向条的选材方面进行了探讨,提出了以非金属导向条代替硬质合金导向条进行钛合金深孔精加工的方法,使得已加工表面的粗糙度大大降低。这些研究结果对实际加工具有一定的指导作用。     

基于粒子滤波的结构疲劳裂纹扩展动态贝叶斯推断方法

准确预测结构的疲劳裂纹扩展过程是开展飞机单机寿命监控与剩余寿命估算的基础。提出一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的结构疲劳裂纹扩展预测方法,结合疲劳裂纹扩展的先验知识与后验知识来准确地推断裂纹长度;研究粒子滤波算法中不同粒子数对动态贝叶斯网络推断精度的影响规律;通过对单孔板结构与耳片连接结构件在随机载荷谱下进行裂纹扩展研究。结果表明：动态贝叶斯网络方法可以对复杂结构的疲劳裂纹扩展进行准确预测,预测精度相对于传统方法提高50% 以上。     

Variational Bayesian Kalman filter using natural gradient

We propose a technique based on the natural gradient method for variational lower bound maximization for a variational Bayesian Kalman filter. The natural gradient approach is applied to the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the parameterized variational distribution and the posterior density of interest. Using a Gaussian assumption for the parametrized variational distribution, we obtain a closed-form iterative procedure for the Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, producing estimates of...     

基于改进Yolov3 算法的舰船目标检测识别系统

针对复杂战场环境下对海目标检测识别的需求,设计了一种基于改进Yolov3 算法的海面舰船目标实 时检测识别系统。使用微调分类网络、增加训练尺度、聚类目标边框维度、二级特征分类等方法对Yolov3 检 测识别网络模型进行了优化,在提高识别精度的同时有效降低了漏检率和虚警率。实验结果表明,优化后的网 络模型在自建的舰船图像数据库中将检测识别平均准确率提高到了79.3%,对真实海上航拍视频中舰船目标识 别的平均准确率达到了81% 以上。