基于粒子滤波的结构疲劳裂纹扩展动态贝叶斯推断方法

准确预测结构的疲劳裂纹扩展过程是开展飞机单机寿命监控与剩余寿命估算的基础。提出一种基于动态贝叶斯网络的结构疲劳裂纹扩展预测方法,结合疲劳裂纹扩展的先验知识与后验知识来准确地推断裂纹长度;研究粒子滤波算法中不同粒子数对动态贝叶斯网络推断精度的影响规律;通过对单孔板结构与耳片连接结构件在随机载荷谱下进行裂纹扩展研究。结果表明：动态贝叶斯网络方法可以对复杂结构的疲劳裂纹扩展进行准确预测,预测精度相对于传统方法提高50% 以上。     

Variational Bayesian Kalman filter using natural gradient

We propose a technique based on the natural gradient method for variational lower bound maximization for a variational Bayesian Kalman filter. The natural gradient approach is applied to the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the parameterized variational distribution and the posterior density of interest. Using a Gaussian assumption for the parametrized variational distribution, we obtain a closed-form iterative procedure for the Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, producing estimates of...     

负反馈放大器的简便分析方法

本文介绍了一种判断、分析负反馈放大器的简便方法。     

决策单元的变更对DEA有效性的影响

文中研究C~2R模型和C~2GS~2模型,当决策单元增加或减少时,DEA有效决策单元的变化。给出了DEA有效性发生变化的一些充分条件、必要条件,以及决策单元的DEA有效性都不变化的充分必要条件。     

Bayesian approach to retrieval of vertical ozone profile from radiometry data

A technique for retrieving vertical distributions (profiles) of atmospheric gas constituents from data of passive remote sensing of the atmosphere is proposed. The goal of the technique based on the statistical (Bayesian) approach to solution of inverse problems is construction of probability distribution for a sought quantity throughout the interval of the studied heights. It is assumed that initial data contain measurement noise, and a priori information about properties of the profile is used. It is proposed to approximate the sought profile by a function in the form of an artificial neural network. This approximation allows optimal inclusion of a priori information into retrieval procedure, thus ensuring the most effective regularization of the problem. Efficiency of the proposed technique is demonstrated on an example of retrieval of vertical ozone profile from data of ground-based sounding of the atmosphere in the millimeter wavelength range. Results of profile retrieval from model data and from spectra of radiation temperature of the atmosphere measured in the Apatity (67° N, 33° E) in the winter of 2002–2003 are presented.     

The nighttime anomalies using Global IGS VTEC Maps

In this paper we show the VTEC variations at night, considering their geomagnetic, seasonal and solar activity dependences. The variations are analyzed in two time periods 10 p.m. (pre-midnight) and 2 a.m. (post-midnight); and for two different solar conditions; one during high solar activity (2000) and the other during low solar activity (2008). Spatial and temporal ionosphere variability is investigated from Global IGS VTEC maps applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA).     

The Western Crete geodetic infrastructure: Long-range power-law correlations in GPS time series using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

The Global Positioning System makes it possible, nowadays, to measure crustal displacements with unprecedented accuracy. These measurements can improve our understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution of motion along tectonic plate boundaries, as well as deepen our comprehension for the nature of earthquake fault behavior and earthquake cycle. The Hellenic subduction zone and the earthquake-prone Crete, with large crustal motions of 3–4 cm/yr, may provide such a natural laboratory for this type of investigation. In this work, we examine the statistical structure and behavior of time series, as produced by permanent GPS sites, established on the islands of Crete and Gavdos.     

Provocative radio transients and base rate bias: A Bayesian argument for conservatism

Most searches for alien radio transmissions have focused on finding omni-directional or purposefully earth-directed beams of enduring duration. However, most of the interesting signals so far detected have been transient and non-repeatable in nature. These signals could very well be the first data points in an ever-growing data base of such signals used to construct a probabilistic argument for the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence. This paper looks at the effect base rate bias could have on deciding which signals to include in such an archive based upon the likely assumption that our ability to discern natural from artificial signals will be less than perfect.     

英语翻译教学与能力训练的探索

在英译汉训练中，加强英文单词的辨析和理解，提高英语的分析能力是表达原著内容的基础；只有了解英语文化背景，掌握常用的翻译技巧，才能提高汉语水平使译文达意通顺。     

基于故障树的直升机维修差错分析方法的研究

根据维修差错一人的失误机理、差错的墨菲定律，以及事故链模型和JamesReason模型，提出了基于故障树的主动预先的维修差错分析方法，试图在直升机设计之中和直升机交付使用前，通过这种基于故障树的维修差错分析方法，找出设计中、使用维修及使用管理中出现的问题或维修差错，提出改进措施，防止在使用维修中出现维修差错。通过这种主动事前的预防维修差错分析方法，可以消除或减少维修差错，提高直升机的安全性。