A variational Bayesian-based robust adaptive filtering for precise point positioning using undifferenced and uncombined observations

In the application of precise point positioning (PPP), especially in the dynamic mode, the classical Kalman filter (KF) usually produces a large number of estimation errors or diverges when there are gross errors in the observation data or unexpected turbulences occur in target motion state or both of them. For such problem, a variational Bayesian (VB)-based robust adaptive Kalman filtering (VB-RAKF) is proposed in this paper. This filter introduces a classification robust equivalent weight function to resist observation gross error and the inverse Wishart prior to model inaccurate process noise covariance matrix (PNCM). To improve the instantaneous accuracy of state estimation, the VB approach is used to obtain better estimations of inaccurate PNCM. Several sets of observation data collected by IGS reference stations and vehicles are employed to check the robustness and positioning accuracy of the VB-RAKF model. The results show that the VB-RAKF algorithm is more robust than the KF, and can effectively resist the gross error in observation data and control state disturbance. In the IGS reference station tests, when compared to the KF, the static positioning accuracies of the VB-RAKF in the north, east and up directions are improved by 13%, 8% and 22%, respectively, and the simulated dynamic positioning accuracies of the VB-RAKF in the north, east and up directions are improved by 19%, 9% and 21%, respectively. The in-vehicle dynamic test verifies that the VB-RAKF outperforms the KF, and shows that the VB-RAKF has better performance than the KF when dealing with observation data which has obvious gross errors, and similar performance as the KF when gross errors are small.     

Reliability estimation of rotary lip seal in aircraft utility system based on time-varying dependence degradation model and its experimental validation

With several attractive properties, rotary lip seals are widely used in aircraft utility system, and their reliability estimation has drawn more and more attention. This work proposes a reliability estimation approach based on time-varying dependence analysis. The dependence between the two performance indicators of rotary lip seals, namely leakage rate and friction torque, is modeled by time-varying copula function with polynomial to denote the time-varying parameters, and an efficient copula selection approach is utilized to select the optimal copula function. Parameter estimation is carried out based on a Bayesian method and the reliability during the whole lifetime is calculated based on a Monte Carlo method. Degradation test for rotary lip seal is conducted and the proposed model is validated by test data. The optimal copula function and optimal order of polynomial are determined based on test data. Results show that this model is effective in estimating the reliability of rotary lip seals and can achieve a better goodness of fit.     

MCMC-Particle-based group tracking of space objects within Bayesian framework

With the intense increase in space objects, especially space debris, it is necessary to efficiently track and catalog the extensive dense clusters of space objects. As the main instrument for low earth orbit (LEO) space surveillance, ground-based radar system is usually limited by its resolution while tracking small space debris with high density. Thus, the obtained measurement information could have been seriously missed, which makes the traditional tracking method inefficient. To address this issue, we conceived the concept of group tracking. For group tracking, the overall tendency of the group objects is expected to be revealed, and the trajectories of individual objects are simultaneously reconstructed explicitly. According to model the interaction between the group center and individual trajectories using the Markov random field (MRF) within Bayesian framework, the objects’ number and individual trajectory can be estimated more accurately in the condition of high miss alarm probability. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Particle algorithm was utilized for solving the Bayesian integral problem. Furthermore, we introduced the mechanism for describing the behaviors of groups merging and splitting, which can expand the single group tracking algorithm to track variable multiple groups. Finally, simulation of the group tracking of space objects was carried out to validate the efficiency of the proposed method.     

基于贝叶斯网络的末制导雷达模糊可靠性分析

弹载末制导雷达可靠性多含不确定性与模糊性因素影响,且其具有样本量小、可靠性高等特点,传统可靠性评估方法难以适用。提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的模糊可靠性分析方法,以某型导弹末制导雷达系统的为具体研究对象,对其进行可靠性分析,验证了方法的有效性。     

贝叶斯网络在飞控系统可靠性评估中的应用

把一种基于贝叶斯网络的故障树分析法应用于飞控系统俯仰控制功能的可靠性评估中,突破传统故障树分析法的局限性——各部件独立、状态为二值,不但可以计算系统的可靠性指标,而且可以定量给出某个事件或某几个事件在系统可靠性中所占的地位,找出系统的薄弱环节。     

模型确认热传导挑战问题求解的贝叶斯方法

为了进一步推动模型确认方法的发展并明确其具体实施步骤,以圣地亚国家实验室提出的模型确认热传导挑战问题为例,建立了模型确认的贝叶斯框架,并阐述模型确认的思想以及实现的一般过程.模型确认不仅是一个评定仿真模型准确度的过程,而且是一个通过确认结果提高模型预测精度的过程.首先介绍了贝叶斯及不确定性量化的基本理论,强调了模型修正...     

Haze removal for UAV reconnaissance images using layered scattering model

During the unmanned aerial vehicles(UAV) reconnaissance missions in the middle-low troposphere, the reconnaissance images are blurred and degraded due to the scattering process of aerosol under fog, haze and other weather conditions, which reduce the image contrast and color fidelity. Considering the characteristics of UAV itself, this paper proposes a new algorithm for dehazing UAV reconnaissance images based on layered scattering model. The algorithm starts with the atmosphere scattering model, using the imaging distance, squint angle and other metadata acquired by the UAV. Based on the original model, a layered scattering model for dehazing is proposed. Considering the relationship between wave-length and extinction coefficient, the airlight intensity and extinction coefficient are calculated in the model. Finally, the restored images are obtained. In addition, a classification method based on Bayesian classification is used for classification of haze concentration of the image, avoiding the trouble of manual working. Then we evaluate the haze removal results according to both the subjective and objective criteria. The experimental results show that compared with the origin image, the comprehensive index of the image restored by our method increases by 282.84%, which proves that our method can obtain excellent dehazing effect.     

基于贝叶斯模型的长码DS-CDMA信号扩频码与信息序列联合估计

 针对长码直接序列扩频码分多址(DS-CDMA)信号的盲解扩,在信号模型分析的基础上,提出了一种基于可逆跳跃的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(RJ-MCMC)扩频码和信息序列联合估计算法。该算法分别对建立的联合后验分布模型进行迭代抽样,并有效地在不同维数的子空间中跳转,从而构造一条马尔可夫链,使其平稳分布为待估参数的后验分布,最终拼接得到每个用户的完整扩频序列和信息序列估计。仿真结果表明:该方法在迭代二十几步时达到收敛;并且在功率相同和不同条件下,当信噪比(SNR)大于-9 dB时,估计序列与真实序列的相似度均超过0.95,信息序列的误码率低于0.01;同时算法对不同用户个数和不同调制样式具有较强的适应性,与Fast-ICA算法相比,估计性能平均提高了约3 dB。     

A model for discrimination and prediction of mental workload of aircraft cockpit display interface

With respect to the ergonomic evaluation and optimization in the mental task design of the aircraft cockpit display interface, the experimental measurement and theoretical modeling of mental workload were carried out under flight simulation task conditions using the performance evaluation, subjective evaluation and physiological measurement methods. The experimental results show that with an increased mental workload, the detection accuracy of flight operation significantly reduced and the reaction time was significantly prolonged; the standard deviation of R-R intervals（SDNN） significantly decreased, while the mean heart rate exhibited little change; the score of NASA_TLX scale significantly increased. On this basis, the indexes sensitive to mental workload were screened, and an integrated model for the discrimination and prediction of mental workload of aircraft cockpit display interface was established based on the Bayesian Fisher discrimination and classification method. The original validation and cross-validation methods were employed to test the accuracy of the results of discrimination and prediction of the integrated model, and the average prediction accuracies determined by these two methods are both higher than 85%. Meanwhile, the integrated model shows a higher accuracy in discrimination and prediction of mental workload compared with single indexes. The model proposed in this paper exhibits a satisfactory coincidence with the measured data and could accurately reflect the variation characteristics of the mental workload of aircraft cockpit display interface, thus providing a basis for the ergonomic evaluation and optimization design of the aircraft cockpit display interface in the future.     

基于业务持续性的航空公司机务维修安全评估

为降低航空公司的事故率,提出基于业务持续性的航空公司机务维修安全评估方法。从人件、硬件、环境、应急救援和软件5个方面来建立风险评估体系,根据风险评估体系建立贝叶斯网络模型,利用能够反映航空公司安全维修状况的历史定量数据作为训练参数。在建立起评估模型的基础上,对航空公司的机务维修进行安全评估和敏感性分析。实验证明,方法能预测风险发展趋势,有效地降低事故发生率,为航空公司的安全运行提供科学依据。