基于混沌特性的网络流量预测

高速网络中存在着以自相似为特征的多种业务流量,这种自相似特征和混沌现象的吸引子有着紧密的联系。本文基于混沌时间序列重构相空间理论,根据最大Lyapunov指数,分别采用W o lf原始算法和改进算法,对高速网络中自相似信源的速率进行了预测,并给出了最大可预报时间。仿真结果表明,W o lf改进算法预测精度及可靠性更高。     

基于一种免疫遗传算法的自由飞行冲突解脱

自由飞行是解决航线拥挤的有效方法,但同时增加了空中交通管理的难度.免疫遗传算法是根据生物免疫原理提出的改进遗传算法,该算法主要体现了生物免疫机制中的免疫操作,与遗传算法相比,能较好地防治"早熟"和减少参数选取对结果的影响,优化效率高.将一种免疫遗传算法应用于自由飞行的冲突解脱问题,与标准遗传算法进行比较,取得了较好的优化效果.     

Discriminating satellite IR anomalies associated with the MS 7.1 Yushu earthquake in China

In the process of exploring pre-earthquake thermal anomalies using satellite infrared data, Blackett et al. (2011) found that the previously reported anomalies before the 2001 Mw 7.7 Gujarat earthquake, in India, were related to positive biases caused by data gaps due to cloud cover and mosaicing of neighboring orbits of MODIS satellite data. They supposed that such effects could also be responsible for other cases. We noted a strip-shaped TIR anomaly on March 17th, 2010, 28?days before the Ms. 7.1 Yushu earthquake (Qin et al., 2011). Here we again investigate multi-year infrared satellite data in different bands to discriminate whether the anomaly is associated with the earthquake, or is only bias caused by the data gaps. From the water vapor images, we find lots of clouds that have TIR anomalies. However, on the cloudiness background, there is an obvious strip-shaped gap matching the tectonic faults almost perfectly. In particular, the animation loops of hourly water vapor images show that the cloud kept moving from west to east, while they never covered the strip-shaped gap. We consider that the cloud with this special spatial pattern should have implied the abnormal signals associated with the seismogenic process. Based on current physical models, the satellite IR anomalies both on TIR and water vapor bands can qualitatively be explained using synthetic mechanisms.     

基于MIT的扇区流量管理决策

为缓解空中交通拥堵和减少航班延误,建立了扇区流量管理模型,并定义扇区容量超负荷频率指标,提出基于尾随间隔(MIT)的3种扇区流量管理决策方案,分析了郑州某个高空管制扇区8:00~9:00时段流量管理实例,结果表明合理的流量决策方案不仅能够缓解扇区拥堵,而且减少了41%的延误,验证了扇区流量管理决策方案的有效性及实用性,可以为决策者提供一定的决策支持。     

TBO模式下终端区进场交通流优化模型与仿真分析

持续增长的交通需求量和日趋饱和的可用空域资源促使未来空中交通管理向基于航迹运行（TBO）的精细化管理模式转变。在TBO概念的基础上，依据目前繁忙机场终端区常见进场航线结构，提出了对应TBO模式下的截点直飞方式与融合点方式进场交通流优化模型，并以法国戴高乐机场终端区为例，构建了仿真运行环境。基于实际飞行计划与雷达记录轨迹模拟生成了航空器四维航迹，而后运用上述2种模型对进场交通流进行了优化，根据仿真结果对特定交通流参数展开了对比分析。研究结果表明，模型可通过航迹选择、时隙分配、顺序交换及动态间隔等方式有效化解终端区内潜在的航空器冲突并保持交通流安全高效运行，同时在一定程度上揭示了TBO模式下交通流的部分运行特性，为以四维航迹为核心的未来空中交通管理策略提供了理论支持。     

Flight safety implications of the extreme solar proton event of 23 February 1956

There is considerable speculation about the effects at aircraft altitudes resulting from extreme solar proton events. The ground level event (GLE) of 23 February 1956 (GLE 5), remains the largest solar proton event of the neutron monitor era in terms of its influence on count rates at monitors near sea level. During this GLE the count rate was increased by as much as 4760% (15-min average) at the Leeds monitor relative to the count rate from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Two modern models of the event cumulative solar proton spectrum for this event, a 6-parameter fit in energy and a 4-parameter Band fit in rigidity, are compared with 1-h of GCR at solar minimum. While effective doses calculated with CARI-7A for both models at low geomagnetic cutoff rigidities are indeed high when compared with GCR and can exceed recommended exposure limits, both GLE spectra exhibit a much stronger dependence on cutoff rigidity than GCR, and a larger fraction of the dose from neutrons. At locations with cutoff rigidities above 4.2 and 6.4?GV, respectively, the GLE effective doses are smaller than the GCR hourly dose. At locations with cutoff rigidities above about 4?GV, GCR was the dominant source of exposure in 10?h or less at all altitudes examined. This suggests that if a similar event occurs in the future, low- and mid-latitude flights at modern jet flight altitudes could be well-protected by Earth’s magnetic field.     

A method in near-surface estimation of air temperature (NEAT) in times following the satellite passing time using MODIS images

Air temperature is one of the most important parameters in environmental, agricultural and water resources studies. This information is not usually always available at the required temporal and spatial resolution. The air temperature is measured at a fixed point in the meteorological stations which are dispersed and may not have the appropriate spatial resolution needed for many applications. On the other hand, MODIS satellite images have relatively acceptable spatial resolution specially for use in environmental studies. There is a methodology with which the near surface air temperature can be extracted from MODIS images at the satellite passing time with an acceptable accuracy. The goal in this study is to find a way to predict the air temperature in times after/before the satellite passing time. The procedure consists of two steps. In the first step, the relationship between the air temperature at a time in a synoptic station and the air temperature in other times up to 5 h later were modeled. In the second step, using these built up relationships, the air temperature extracted from the satellite image at the passing time was extrapolated to the next hours. Finally, the results of this extrapolation method were evaluated using the air temperatures measured at those hours and in the pixels containing some other meteorological stations. The error of the method when applied to a relatively homogeneous surface cover was about 1.5 °C. This error when applied to the next hours, was below 2 °C up to 5 h after satellite passing time. This method can be useful in some agricultural and horticultural applications in which both the spatial and temporal resolution are needed simultaneously. This product is a useful tool for frost prediction, a phenomenon that usually happens at night or early in the morning.     

Network analysis of Chinese air transport delay propagation

The Chinese air transport system has witnessed an important evolution in the last dec-ade, with a strong increase in the number of flights operated and a consequent reduction of their punctuality. In this contribution, we propose modelling the process of delay propagation by using complex networks, in which nodes are associated to airports, and links between pairs of them are assigned when a delay propagation is detected. Delay time series are analysed through the well-known Granger Causality, which allows detecting if one time series is causing the dynamics observed in a second one. Results indicate that delays are mostly propagated from small and regio-nal airports, and through flights operated by turbo-prop aircraft. These insights can be used to design strategies for delay propagation dampening, as for instance by including small airports into the system's Collaborative Decision Making.     

Safety assessment of approximate segregated parallel operation on closely spaced parallel runways

With the continuous growth of air traffic flow, some airports in China or other countries begin to construct Closely Spaced Parallel Runways (CSPR) to meet the capacity requirement of civil aviation. In this paper, the simulation and calculation method of flight trajectory is developed, as well as the collision risk calculation method and wake vortex encounter risk calculation method. New methods for departure and go-around procedures are proposed to achieve approximate segregated parallel operation in an attempt to obtain approximately the same results on closely spaced parallel runways as on widely spaced parallel runways. By comparing with the independent parallel departure and segregated parallel operation in ICAO Doc. 9643, it is found that the lateral separation between aircraft in this proposal is not less than the separations in the other two cases. Based on the simulation calculation of flight trajectories under different conditions, the probabilities of collision conflict and encountering wake vortex are lower than those in current operation plan. The proposed plan has no special requirements in pilot operation, control command procedures, airport facilities, or meteorological observation and prediction, so it is convenient to promote and implement at the airports with closely spaced parallel runways.     

单一飞行员驾驶模式技术

飞机驾驶机组由20世纪50年代的5乘员驾驶模式减少到了目前的双乘员，然而为了降低航空公司运营成本以及减少双乘员认知不同、操作不一致所带来的安全性隐患，开展了单一飞行员驾驶（SPO）模式研究，SPO是新一代商用飞机发展方向核心技术之一。单一飞行员驾驶模式是描述面向商用飞机单一驾驶员、驾驶舱智能自动系统以及地面航空公司操作员协同实现的飞行驾驶模式。本文首先对单一飞行员驾驶模式系统组成及其系统架构进行了描述，并对比分析了单一飞行员驾驶模式下飞行员、空管系统、航空公司三方协同过程与现有模式的差异点；然后，针对商用飞机主要飞行过程，建立了单一飞行员驾驶模式下各飞行过程组织架构；最后，搭建了面向SPO的远程操控演示验证系统，经过飞行员操作评价，基本可以获取到机上操作所具备的驾驶感受，同时对于飞行计划更改、紧急情况处理等方面更为便利。通过上述内容研究，为中国商用飞机开展单一飞行员驾驶发展奠定了一定的技术基础。