产品性能可靠性评估的时序分析方法

针对航空航天产品高可靠性、长寿命的特点,通过综合时序模型对随机序列自拟合性强与短期预测精度高的优点,提出了两类基于性能退化数据的产品可靠性评估时序模型方法.首先,从性能退化量分布的角度出发,在假设退化量分布类型不随时间变化的前提下,利用时间序列建立了性能退化分布参数的分析模型,进而根据可靠度与性能退化量分布的关系进行可靠性评估.然后,从退化轨迹的角度出发,对所有样本的退化轨迹进行时序分析与建模,外推伪失效区间与伪失效寿命值,进而采用完全寿命试验数据的统计方法进行可靠性评估.最后,对某金属材料疲劳裂纹扩展数据进行可靠性评估与寿命预测,结果表明该方法具有良好的稳健性.     

加速度计加速退化机理一致性边界确定方法

以加速退化模型——Arrhenius模型为研究对象,发现加速度计在加速试验过程中,保持加速机理不变的应力与退化轨迹斜率存在密切关系.通过针对退化轨迹模型分别为一次函数、指数函数和幂函数三种常见情况,从激活能不变角度推导出保证加速度计加速机理不变的应力-斜率公式,然后基于退化轨迹斜率区间检验提出了一种加速机理一致性条件确定方法,最后根据加速度计恒定高温标度因数稳定性退化仿真试验数据,准确得到了保持加速度计标度因数稳定性退化机理一致的应力边界,验证了该方法的可行性.     

空气和液压油环境中氟橡胶老化性能研究

为了解氟橡胶密封件在液压系统中的贮存寿命,在两种介质环境中对氟橡胶开展了加速老化试验。结果表明,氟橡胶耐热、耐介质、耐老化性能优异,在90℃下加速老化120 d后,压缩回弹性能、物理力学性能保持率均在80%以上,评估其具有20年的贮存寿命。     

精密机电设备寿命评估方法

寿命评估技术既是确保设备安全、可靠运行的核心和关键,也是设备定寿、延寿的重要依据。从工程的视角,根据精密机电设备的工作状态,将精密机电设备分为新研设备、工作态设备、贮存态设备3类,分析这3种状态机电设备的特点及可以获取的信息资源,进而对新研设备、工作态设备、贮存态设备的寿命评估方法进行了系统研究和评述,对存在的问题及未来发展趋势进行了分析和展望。鉴于难以对复杂精密机电设备的机理进行建模,数据驱动的寿命估计已成为当前研究的主流,本文在3种状态机电设备分类的框架下,重点分析了数据驱动寿命估计的研究动态。     

指数分布情形下恒定应力加速试验的最优设计

本文主要讨论了指数分布情形下,均值对数与加速应力满足通常的Arrhenius模型或逆幂律情形时,恒定应力加速试验在定数截尾和定时截尾二种情形下试验的最优设计。     

基于幂律退化轨道的小样本性能可靠性评定

结合航空航天领域高可靠、长寿命产品试验小子样的特点,运用性能退化可靠性理论和Bayes方法,对系统可靠性的统计推断方法进行了研究.首先对基于Bayes方法幂律退化轨道参数的计算模型进行研究,然后结合随机变量函数的分布的计算,推导出系统可靠性后验估计和置信下限估计的计算公式.在理论推导的基础上,结合工程实例说明该方法的有效性.     

GaN基白光LED电流加速老化特性研究

本文对三组Al2O3衬底上生长GaN基蓝光激发黄色荧光粉的白光LED进行了对比电流加速老化实验,老化电流分别是30 mA5、0 mA和70 mA。随着老化电流的增大,GaN基白光LED的光输出功率随时间的衰减速率相对较快;随老化时间的加长,30 mA电流驱动下,GaN基白光LED相对光谱中黄光比重先增加再减小。其原因归结为荧光粉受热降解导致转换量子效率降低和荧光粉本身对短波长的光散射共同作用的结果。最后计算出用于实验的白光LED寿命为457 h。     

Integrated guidance and control for solar sail station-keeping with optical degradation

Current control approaches for solar sail station-keeping on libration point orbits have not considered the degradation of the sail’s optical properties. However, significant optical degradation could lead to poor station-keeping performance or even complete failure. This paper presents an integrated guidance and control strategy to address this problem by updating the reference orbit based on in situ estimation. An exponential optical degradation model is incorporated into the solar radiation acceleration model, and an on-line reference orbit update approach is incorporated into the station-keeping, coupled with an active disturbance rejection controller. The reflection coefficient is estimated on-line and the reference orbit is updated discretely when the optical properties have degraded by a prescribed amount. This strategy provides discrete updates to the reference orbits such that the perturbation due to the optical degradation is maintained within a small range. These smaller perturbations can be dealt with by the controller’s robustness and station-keeping can be sustained for long durations even in the presence of large optical degradation.     

A new modeling method of solar energetic proton events for ISO specification

Solar energetic protons degrade performance and reliability of spacecraft systems due to single-event effects, total dose effects and displacement damage in electronics components including solar cells. On designing a solar cell panel, a total fluence of solar energetic protons (SEPs) which cause solar cell damage is needed to estimate power loss of the solar cells over mission life. Nowadays a solar panel area of spacecraft is increasing as spacecraft mission life becomes longer (15–18 years). Thus an accurate SEP model is strongly required for the cost-minimum design from the aerospace industry. The SEP model, JPL-91 proposed by Feynman et al., is currently used widely for solar cell designing. However, it is known that the JPL-91 model predicts higher fluences of protons than values actually experienced in space, especially after 7 years on orbit. In addition, the model is based on several assumptions, and also needs Monte-Carlo simulations for calculating fluences. In this study, we propose a new method for modeling SEPs especially focused on solar cell degradation. The newly-proposed method is empirical, which constructs a model based directly upon proton flux measurement data taken by instruments onboard spacecraft. This method has neither assumptions nor dependence on SEP event selection, both of which are needed in JPL-91. The model fluences derived from this method show lower fluences in longer missions compared to JPL-91. This method has been proposed to ISO (International Organization for Standardization) and has been discussed for a new standard SEP model.     

质子辐照对防静电热控涂层导电性能影响

文章研究了质子辐照环境对两种防静电热控涂层（ITO/F46/Ag、ITO/OSR/Ag）导电性能的影响,质子总注量选取1×1015 p/cm2,并在不同质子注量下对试样表面电阻率进行了原位测量。试验发现,质子辐照下两种防静电热控涂层的表面电阻率均呈指数衰减趋势,且回至大气中出现明显的“恢复效应”。对涂层导电性能退化的微观机制进行了分析,并建立了相应导电性能演化规律的简化数学模型,可为新型涂层的研制提供理论依据。