武汉上空MLT中准16日波的流星雷达观测

利用武汉流星雷达2002年2月20日至2003年11月10日的观测数据,研究了武汉上空中间层-低热层(MLT)中的准16日波,即周期范围在12—20天的行星波。分析结果表明,16日波的纬向成分通常比经向成分要强．(1)在2002年和2003年,波振幅最强都出现在当年的秋季(约9月10日—10月10日)．Lomb-Scargle(L-S)谱分析得到振幅最大值约为16m／s．2002年夏季出现了同年次最强的波动,但2003年没有发现这一现象．两年的冬季都没有出现强的16日波．(2)2002年,在86—98km处波动较强,最大振幅(约16m／s)出现在90km、94km处,而2003年低高度的波动要比较高高度的波动强．武汉上空MLT中,秋季的16日波是能量上传的波动,即它的源在较低的大气层．2002年夏季的波动的能量是下行的,波源可能在南半球．     

Machining Error Control by Integrating Multivariate Statistical Process Control and Stream of Variations Methodology

For aircraft manufacturing industries, the analyses and prediction of part machining error during machining process are very important to control and improve part machining quality. In order to effectively control machining error, the method of integrating multivariate statistical process control (MSPC) and stream of variations (SoV) is proposed. Firstly, machining error is modeled by multi-operation approaches for part machining process. SoV is adopted to establish the mathematic model of the relationship between the error of upstream operations and the error of downstream operations. Here error sources not only include the influence of upstream operations but also include many of other error sources. The standard model and the predicted model about SoV are built respectively by whether the operation is done or not to satisfy different requests during part machining process. Secondly, the method of one-step ahead forecast error (OSFE) is used to eliminate autocorrelativity of the sample data from the SoV model, and the T2 control chart in MSPC is built to realize machining error detection according to the data characteristics of the above error model, which can judge whether the operation is out of control or not. If it is, then feedback is sent to the operations. The error model is modified by adjusting the operation out of control, and continually it is used to monitor operations. Finally, a machining instance containing two operations demonstrates the effectiveness of the machining error control method presented in this paper.     

A comparison of seasonal variations of sea level in the southern Baltic Sea from altimetry and tide gauge data

In this paper, seasonal sea level variations have been determined at five locations in the Baltic Sea from satellite altimetry for the period 1993–2015. The results were compared to tide gauge water level data. Annual and semi-annual amplitudes have been investigated for both sea level anomalies and tide gauge water level. It was found that the two independent observations of sea level variations along the Polish coast are in good agreement both in terms of their annual and semi-annual amplitudes and their annual and semi-annual phases. The annual cycles in the sea level variations measured by altimetry and tide gauge reach maximum values at approximately the same month (November/December).Moreover, this article shows the differences between the annual and semi-annual amplitudes and phases in the sea level anomalies and water level data within the same time frame. The difference in the annual amplitudes between the satellite altimetry and the tide gauge results is between 0.33?cm and 1.53?cm. The maximum differences in the annual cycle of the sea level changes were found at the Swinoujscie station. The correlations between the original series and the calculated curves were determined, and the relationship between the amplitudes and the phases were investigated. The correlation between the annual variations observed from the two independent observation techniques is 0.92.To analyse the dynamics of the change in sea level, the linear trend was estimated from the satellite altimetry and tide gauge time series both in the original time series of the data and in the time series in which seasonal variations were removed. In addition, we calculated the estimated errors of regression and how many years’ worth of data are needed to obtain an accuracy of 0.1?mm per year. The estimated errors of regression showed that to get an accuracy of 0.1?mm per year, we need 100?years of data.     

正相电离层骚扰研究

本文对我国五个电离层站月报资料中的正相电离层骚扰(f₀F₂增加)作了分析研究,获得了正相骚扰时空变化的规律性,地磁暴与正相电离层骚扰的关系.对正相电离层骚扰的机理也作了讨论.      

MB26 镁合金复杂结构件等温模锻过程的数值模拟与缺陷控制

采用DEFORM-3D有限元软件对MB26镁合金复杂结构件等温模锻工艺过程进行了数值模拟,直观地反映了锻件成形过程中的应力分布、金属流动趋势以及成形效果,分析了折叠、流线不顺等缺陷产生的原因.通过数值分析得出了合理的坯料形状、模具形式及成形工艺参数,消除了成形中可能出现的缺陷.     

On the long-term variability of the heliosphere–magnetosphere environment

Annual means of measured and reconstructed solar, heliospheric, and magnetospheric parameters are used to infer solar activity signatures at the Hale and Gleissberg cycles timescales. Available open solar flux, modulation strength, cosmic ray flux, total solar irradiance data, reconstructed back to 1700, solar wind parameters (speed and density) and the magnitude of the heliospheric magnetic field at 1 AU, reconstructed back to 1870, as well as the time series of geomagnetic activity indices (aa, IDV, IHV), going back to 1870, have been considered. Simple filtering procedures (successive 11-, 22-, and 88-year running averages and differences between them) and scaling by the standard deviation from the average value for the common interval covered by the data show that the long-discussed variation in the 20th century (a pronounced increase since ∼1900, followed by a depression in the ‘60s and a new, slower, increase) seen in the 11-year averages of parameters such as geomagnetic activity indices and reconstructed heliospheric magnetic field strength, solar wind speed, open solar flux, is a result of the superposition in data of solar activity signatures at Hale and Gleissberg cycles timescales. The Hale and Gleissberg signals were characterized and similarities and differences in the temporal behavior of the analyzed parameters at these timescales are discussed. The similarities in the studied parameters point to a common pacing source, the solar dynamo.     

Using neural networks to determine the optimum solar input for the prediction of ionospheric parameters

Neural networks (NNs) are proving to be ideal tools for modeling the behaviour of the ionosphere. The NNs are trained using a database of archived data describing the relationship between the output parameter and an input space. The input space is designed from knowledge of those variables that affect the behaviour of the output parameter. For ionospheric parameters this input space would always include a solar variable due to the strong influence that the sun has on ionospheric behaviour.     

Modeling of 3-D Corotating Cosmic-Ray Structures in the Heliosphere

We present a brief review of the modeling of corotating 3-dimensional features in heliospheric cosmic rays. The model heliosphere incorporates a wavy current sheet and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs). We find that present models can qualitatively account for the observed extension of recurrent 26-day cosmic-ray variations to high heliospheric latitudes if perpendicular diffusion is significant. The recurrent enhancement of low-energy (MeV) particles accelerated at CIR-s is also shown to fit into this same picture.     

BPL长波授时信号传输时延的时间变化分析

由于GNSS系统的脆弱性,Loran-C/BPL系统作为GNSS系统的备份研究,受到国内外的重视,但如何获取高精度的传播时延一直是制约长波系统实现高精度授时的瓶颈。本文从测量角度出发分析路径时延的空间变化和时间变化,着重利用实际测量数据分析路径时延的时间变化规律。结果表明信号传播路径相似、且传播路径上天气变化相似的条件下相距100km内的用户其接收信号的传播时延时间变化规律基本相同,这为长波差分授时奠定基础。     

太阳F10.7指数准27天振荡的小波分析

利用1956-2003年的F10.7日均值数据,采用Morlet小波变换方法,分析了准27天振荡的特征及与太阳活动11年周期(Schwabe周期)的关系.结果表明,F10.7的准27天振荡的幅度和周期存在明显的短期变化现象,不同年里变化的程度差别很大,有些年里起伏非常剧烈,在几天到几十天的很短时间里,幅度变化达十几倍,周期可变化数天,甚至发生十几天的突变;有些年里,幅度变化很大但起伏很小,周期也比较稳定.准27天振荡的年平均幅度存在明显的逐年变化,与太阳活动显著相关.一般说来,F10.7越高,准27天振荡的幅度就越大,然而在太阳活动19周峰年,F10.7比其他活动周的值都高,但准27天振荡的幅度却比其他活动周低.准27天振荡的周期也有明显的逐年变化,除了个别年(如1987年),年平均周期在24至31天之间变化,与太阳活动周期没有明显的关系.48年的平均周期为27.3天.从总体看,周期有逐渐缩短的趋势,48年里周期大约减少了1.5天.造成准27天振荡起伏的因素非常复杂,有待深入研究.