太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅰ)

采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当。     

变分法在微分——超越系统中的应用

本文讨论微分—超越系统的最优控制问题。对控制量受限且分段连续的情形,进行了数学上的处理,应用变分方法,证明了最优性的必要条件。     

Spaceborne GPS receiver antenna phase center offset and variation estimation for the Shiyan 3 satellite

In determining the orbits of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites using spaceborne GPS, the errors caused by receiver antenna phase center offset (PCO) and phase center variations (PCVs) are gradually becoming a major limiting factor for continued improvements to accuracy. Shiyan 3, a small satellite mission for space technology experimentation and climate exploration, was developed by China and launched on November 5, 2008. The dual-frequency GPS receiver payload delivers 1 Hz data and provides the basis for precise orbit determination within the range of a few centime-ters. The antenna PCO and PCV error characteristics and the principles influencing orbit determi-nation are analyzed. The feasibility of PCO and PCV estimation and compensation in different directions is demonstrated through simulation and in-flight tests. The values of receiver antenna PCO and PCVs for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Shiyan 3 satellites are estimated from one month of data. A large and stable antenna PCO error, reaching up to 10.34 cm in the z-direction, is found with the Shiyan 3 satellite. The PCVs on the Shiyan 3 satellite are estimated and reach up to 3.0 cm, which is slightly larger than that of GRACE satellites. Orbit validation clearly improved with independent k-band ranging (KBR) and satellite laser ranging (SLR) measurements. For GRACE satellites, the average root mean square (RMS) of KBR resid-uals improved from 1.01 cm to 0.88 cm. For the Shiyan 3 satellite, the average RMS of SLR resid-uals improved from 4.95 cm to 4.06 cm.     

Nonlinear Interactions between the Quasi 5-day Wave and Tides Based on Meteor Radar Observations at Maui

Nonlinear interactions between the quasi 5-day wave and tides based on meteor radar observation in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere(MLT) at Maui are studied in this paper.Strong sum interaction between quasi 5-day wave and diurnal tide,and evident difference interaction between quasi 5-day wave and semidiurnal tide are observed during the time of attention.However,their difference and sum counterparts are clearly weaker.The secondary waves generated from those interactions beat with the tide and show intense modulation at the period of 5 days which confirms the existence of their interactions.Additionally,correlation coefficients among these waves are calculated to further explore their interactions and find that they can persist for several days although they are highly intermittent.The energy exchange among these waves can be reversible during the observational time.The periods when the significant difference interaction between the quasi 5-day wave and semidiurnal tide occur are much shorter than those when the significant sum interaction between the quasi 5-day wave and diurnal tide occur.Moreover,these two strong interactions can take place simultaneously.In generally,this study provides the proof of nonlinear interactions between quasi 5-day wave and tides which were seldom reported before.     

AIUB-CHAMP02S: The influence of GNSS model changes on gravity field recovery using spaceborne GPS

The gravity field model AIUB-CHAMP02S, which is based on six years of CHAMP GPS data, is presented here. The gravity field parameters were derived using a two step procedure: In a first step a kinematic trajectory of a low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellite is computed using the GPS data from the on-board receiver. In this step the orbits and clock corrections of the GPS satellites as well as the Earth rotation parameters (ERPs) are introduced as known. In the second step this kinematic orbit is represented by a gravitational force model and orbit parameters.     

Dependence of the 27-day variation of cosmic rays on the global magnetic field of the Sun

We show that the higher range of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of the solar wind speed in the positive polarity period (A > 0) than in the negative polarity period (A < 0) is one of the important reasons of the larger amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the period of 1995–1997 (A > 0) than in 1985–1987 (A < 0). Subsequently, different ranges of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of the solar wind speed jointly with equally important corresponding drift effect are general causes of the polarity dependence of the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity. At the same time, we show that the polarity dependence is feeble for the last unusual minimum epoch of solar activity 2007–2009 (A < 0); the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity shows only a tendency of the polarity dependence. We present a three dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of GCR based on the Parker’s transport equation. In the 3-D model is implemented a longitudinal variation of the solar wind speed reproducing in situ measurements and corresponding divergence-free interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) derived from the Maxwell’s equations. We show that results of the proposed 3-D modeling of the 27-day variation of GCR intensity for different polarities of the solar magnetic cycle are in good agreement with the neutron monitors experimental data. To reach a compatibility of the theoretical modeling with observations for the last minimum epoch of solar activity 2007–2009 (A < 0) a parallel diffusion coefficient was increased by ∼40%.     

The brief history of experimental research of cosmic ray variations in Yakutia

Some unknown historical facts of cosmic ray studies in the north-east of the former Soviet Union related to the Yakutsk scientific group are reported for the benefit of the international scientific community. It focuses on the founders of Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences. A chronology of measurements of cosmic ray intensity variations since 1949 in Yakutia (Sakha Republic; NE Siberia) is given. In particular, for the first time the data of the first solar cosmic ray event registered at Yakutsk (GLE04), with a small ionization chamber S-2 (volume: 20 L) are presented. Moreover, the data of the large ionization chamber ASK-1 (volume: 950 L) for the 1953–2003 period useful for specialists in the field of cosmic ray variations are also shown.     

Scientific requirements for future spatially resolved white-light and broad-band high-cadence observations of the Sun

Several important issues are open in the field of solar variability and they wait their solution which up to now was attempted using critical ground-based instrumentations. However, accurate photometric data are attainable only from space. New observational material should be collected with high enough spatial and spectral resolution, covering the whole visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum as well infrared and ultraviolet to reconstruct the total solar irradiance: (1) the absolute contributions of different small-scale structural entities of the solar atmosphere from the white light flares and from micro-flares are still poorly known; (2) we do not know the absolute contributions of different structural elements of the solar atmosphere to the long-term and to the cyclic variations of the solar irradiance, including features of the polar regions of the Sun; (3) the variations of the chromospheric magnetic network are still poorly evaluated; (4) only scarce information is available about the spectral variations of different small-scale features in the high photosphere. Variability of the Sun in white light can be studied with higher spectral, spatial and time resolution using space-born telescopes, which are more appropriate for this purpose than ground based observatories because of better seeing conditions, no interference of the terrestrial atmosphere and a more precise calibration procedure. Scientific requirements for such observations and the possible experimental tools proposed for their solution. Suggested solar studies have broader astrophysical importance.     

On the association of quiet-time Pi2 pulsations with IMF variations

The association of quiet-time Pi2 pulsations with the variations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been examined by using three reported events, occurring during extremely quiet intervals, of which the first was on 10 March 1997, the second 27 December 1997, and the third 11 May 1999. For the first event, the onset time of ground Pi2s maps to the IMF structure bearing a variation cycle of north-to-south and north again as seen by Wind in the upstream region and Geotail in the magnetosheath. Likewise, the second and the third events have respectively, four and three recurrent turnings propagating to the Earth sensed by multiple satellites. The comparison of geomagnetic perturbations, auroral brightenings, and energetic particle data in the magnetotail with the IMF observations shows successive substorm-like activations accompanied by ground Pi2 onsets. For a clear variation cycle, the first Pi2 burst appears 36 ± 8 min after southward turning of the IMF and the second one follows14 ± 4 min after a northward turning. Moreover, ground Pi2 onsets recur under low IMF clock angle conditions. These observational results can be interpreted with the prevailing models of externally triggered substorm. But the solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere under quiet conditions proceeds in a less efficient way than under substorm time conditions. Consequently, we suggest that recurrent quiet-time Pi2s can be associated with IMF variations and their cause can be the same as those for substorm times.