2012:中国房地产将崩盘?

不知是否受了好莱坞大片《2012》的影响,从去年开始,多位专家就开始纷纷宣告,2012年中国房地产行业将迎来其末日大审判。中国社科院研究员曹建海预测,最晚到2012年中国房地产必将崩盘,整个房价将下跌40%～50%。与此同时,牛刀先生也认为,中国房价泡沫将于2012年破灭,最后能够存活下来的只有占总量20%的上市公司和品牌房企。     

质量评估中确定权重的方法

介绍了质量评估中确定权重的常用方法,主要包括专家咨询(Delphi)法、特征值法、加权最小二乘方法、对数回归法、残缺矩阵排序权重计算方法、群评价法、成对比较法等。     

苏联高温合金制造技术的发展

苏联高温合金的发展是从四十年代后期随着喷气技术的发展而开始的,在五十至六十年代得到了最大的发展。这一期间的主要科研方向是研究合金元素的影响,并寻找最佳的合金成份,结果研制成功了一批和系列的高温合金牌号(现已开始新的系列),铸造合金则形成了系列,其中一部分在航空和其他工业部门经过生产和使用的考验,投入批量生产,并形成了苏联的高温合金系列。目前在苏联,高温     

小子样武器装备可靠性评定过程中专家信息的规范化描述

在对航空航天领域可靠性工程中专家信息的特征进行分析的基础上, 分别对模糊描述、概率描述法、专家打分法、主观语言描述方式的专家信息规范化进行了研究, 并对基于专家信息的验前分布确定过程进行了分析.建立了专家信息规范化的广义验前信息描述、基于不确定性加权验前信息描述、最大熵法验前信息描述的验前分布确定模型.论文的研究对于小子样条件下运用Bayes方法分析系统可靠性时, 基于专家信息的验前分布确定具有重要的工程指导意义.      

模糊综合评判法在维修作业任务优化中的应用

针对目前维修方面存在的效率低下的问题,提出了用模糊综合评判法对维修作业任务进行优化的方法,并以实例说明了该方法应用的合理性。     

飞机便携式维修辅助系统

现代飞机航电火控系统功能日益复杂，而测试性设计的不完善，使机内自检(BIT)虚警率、不可复现率及重测合格率成为各型飞机外场保障一大问题，便携式维修辅助系统(PMA)是解决该问题手段之一。该系统作为机内自检的补充，主要功能是增强机载航电设备故障隔离能力、排除正常LRU的不必要更换、综合BIT故障报告、机组和维修人员观察，记录虚警及不可复现故障历史和专家诊断系统从而提高外场保障效率水平。     

An intelligent control method for a large multi-parameter environmental simulation cabin

The structure and characteristics of a large multi-parameter environmental simulation cabin are introduced.Due to the diffculties of control methods and the easily damaged characteristics,control systems for the large multi-parameter environmental simulation cabin are diffcult to be controlled quickly and accurately with a classical PID algorithm.Considering the dynamic state characteristics of the environmental simulation test chamber,a lumped parameter model of the control system is established to accurately control the multiple parameters of the environmental chamber and a fuzzy control algorithm combined with expert-PID decision is introduced into the temperature,pressure,and rotation speed control systems.Both simulations and experimental results have shown that compared with classical PID control,this fuzzy-expert control method can decrease overshoot as well as enhance the capacity of anti-dynamic disturbance with robustness.It can also resolve the contradiction between rapidity and small overshoot,and is suitable for application in a large multi-parameter environmental simulation cabin control system.     

Multi-parameter decoupling and slope tracking control strategy of a large-scale high altitude environment simulation test cabin

A large-scale high altitude environment simulation test cabin was developed to accurately control temperatures and pressures encountered at high altitudes. The system was developed to provide slope-tracking dynamic control of the temperature–pressure two-parameter and overcome the control difficulties inherent to a large inertia lag link with a complex control system which is composed of turbine refrigeration device, vacuum device and liquid nitrogen cooling device. The system includes multi-parameter decoupling of the cabin itself to avoid equipment damage of air refrigeration turbine caused by improper operation. Based on analysis of the dynamic characteristics and modeling for variations in temperature, pressure and rotation speed, an intelligent controller was implemented that includes decoupling and fuzzy arithmetic combined with an expert PID controller to control test parameters by decoupling and slope tracking control strategy. The control system employed centralized management in an open industrial ethernet architecture with an industrial computer at the core. The simulation and field debugging and running results show that this method can solve the problems of a poor anti-interference performance typical for a conventional PID and overshooting that can readily damage equipment. The steady-state characteristics meet the system requirements.     

专家解读世界最大规模射电望远镜阵列

目前,由中国、澳大利亚、意大利、新西兰、荷兰、南非、英国等全球20个国家的科学家们筹划建造的,全世界最大规模的射电望远镜阵列（SKA）已经进入倒计时。 据悉,SKA由3300个15米口径抛物面天线和250个直径约60米AA（Aperture Array）低频孔径阵组成,分布在3000千米范围形成旋臂阵列望远镜。     

专家知识在在轨管理中应用的设想

随着在轨航天器的种类和数量日趋增多,航天器工作状态的实时监测诊断成为我国航天器长期管理中的重大工程技术课题。文章提出了一种面向对象的航天器实时监测、故障诊断知识描述语言的设计思想,该描述语言具有较强的可扩展性和继承性,能够适应在轨航天器日益增多对地面管理提出的自动化、智能化的迫切要求。