基于贝叶斯因子和二阶概率方法的圣地亚热传导模型确认挑战问题

针对美国圣地亚国家实验室为促进模型确认方法的发展所提出的热传导挑战问题,根据现代模型确认思想总结了该挑战问题解答中应包含的核心内容。在确认度量环节采用贝叶斯因子考察了实验数据是否支持所给模型,在此基础上通过二阶概率方法得到了模型预测的分布,以此计算出模型预测结论的置信度。该过程中考虑了模型参数的随机不确定性和认知不确定性,最后通过灵敏度分析辨识了模型参数的不确定性对模型预测的影响。研究表明该挑战问题中的实验数据支持所给模型,模型预测受导热系数的不确定性影响最大,模型预测材料在调控条件下的失效概率不满足调控要求,该结论的置信度为99.97%。     

无控武器对地攻击精度分析

针对目前无控武器对地攻击精度影响因素来源单一,分析影响精度的多种误差源。建立直升机无控武器命中精度分析模型,针对平飞方式下的无控武器命中精度问题,采用蒙特卡洛法多次仿真。针对命中精度与各个误差源的关系方程,提出采用多元线性回归法对仿真结果进行分析,给出误差源对命中精度的影响程度。对关系方程和误差影响程度进行显著性检验,使其更加准确、可信。     

高超声速二元进气道前体曲线激波逆向设计

为实现高超声速二元进气道前体激波的压缩能力、压缩效率、流量捕获特性和结构长度可控,提出了平面曲线激波逆向设计方法。采用B-Spline曲线控制激波形状。利用有旋特征线法,求解激波的影响域及决定激波的壁面。设计了一凹激波,并对波后流场进行CFD无黏数值模拟,CFD结果和设计结果一致,验证了设计方法的可行性。此外,还设计了直激波、凹激波和凸激波3种激波,并对其在设计点和非设计点处的性能开展了数值研究。在设计点处,分析了激波的压缩比、激波的总压恢复系数、激波压缩区的压升、激波压缩区出口马赫数和流动角随激波控制角的变化规律。在非设计点处,分析了激波压缩区的流量系数和总压恢复系数随攻角和马赫数的变化规律。     

机翼对自转旋翼机纵向稳定性的影响

为了研究机翼对自转旋翼机纵向稳定性的影响,针对某复合式自转旋翼机,建立了基于状态空间法描述的非线性全量方程数学模型。该模型包含自转旋翼、机身、螺旋桨、机翼和尾翼的气动模型、动态入流模型和稳定性分析模型。运用该模型对比研究了样例自转旋翼机和样例复合式自转旋翼机的纵向稳定性。研究结果表明：机翼的增加对于浮沉模态和短周期模态稳定性是有利的;对于旋翼转速模态稳定性是不利的,在设计复合式自转旋翼机时可以考虑增加旋翼桨尖配重来提高此模态的稳定性。机翼的纵向位置对自转旋翼机的纵向稳定性有显著影响。在机翼纵向位置能满足配平约束条件下,机翼纵向位置越靠后,迎角稳定性越好,但旋翼转速稳定性越差。在设计复合式自转旋翼机时,机翼纵向位置的选择要综合考虑这两个因素进行折中。     

k/N（G）结构系统初始备件配置方法

针对现有备件冗余度建模中无限呼叫总体假设不合理、供应可用度计算困难的问题,提出一种k/N（G）结构系统初始备件配置方法。首先,采用有限源排队论获取备件短缺数概率分布。然后,给出计算k/N（G）结构系统供应可用度的方案,并证明了方案的正确性。该方案在计算随机挑选的一套系统未因备件短缺而停机的概率基础上,利用k（或更多）套系统良好的二项分布概率估计系统供应可用度。最后,应用边际分析算法确定各项备件的数量。实例分析表明：该方法能优化k/N（G）结构系统各组成部件的库存数量,且与单项法相比具有明显的优势,能以较少的备件费用达到相同的供应可用度目标。     

Coupling damage and reliability model of low-cycle fatigue and high energy impact based on the local stress–strain approach

Fatigue induced products generally bear fatigue loads accompanied by impact processes,which reduces their reliable life rapidly. This paper introduces a reliability assessment model based on a local stress–strain approach considering both low-cycle fatigue and high energy impact loads.Two coupling relationships between fatigue and impact are given with effects of an impact process on fatigue damage and effects of fatigue damage on impact performance. The analysis of the former modifies the fatigue parameters and the Manson–Coffin equation for fatigue life based on material theories. On the other hand, the latter proposes the coupling variables and the difference of fracture toughness caused by accumulative fatigue damage. To form an overall reliability model including both fatigue failure and impact failure, a competing risk model is developed. A case study of an actuator cylinder is given to validate this method.     

Determination of thermal expansion coefficients for unidirectional fiber-reinforced composites

In the present work, the coefficients of thermal expansion（CTEs） of unidirectional（UD）fiber-reinforced composites are studied. First, an attempt is made to propose a model to predict both longitudinal and transverse CTEs of UD composites by means of thermo-elastic mechanics analysis. The proposed model is supposed to be a concentric cylinder with a transversely isotropic fiber embedded in an isotropic matrix, and it is subjected to a uniform temperature change. Then a concise and explicit formula is offered for each CTE. Finally, some finite element（FE） models are created by a finite element program MSC. Patran according to different material systems and fiber volume fractions. In addition, the available experimental data and results of other analytical solutions of CTEs are presented. Comparisons are made among the results of the cylinder model,the finite element method（FEM）, experiments, and other solutions, which show that the predicted CTEs by the new model are in good agreement with the experimental data. In particular, transverse CTEs generally offer better agreements than those predicted by most of other solutions.     

Friction moment analysis of space gyroscope bearing with ribbon cage under ultra-low oscillatory motion

This paper presents the model of calculating the total friction moment of space gyroscope ball bearings which usually work under ultra-low oscillatory motion and are very sensitive to the friction moment. The aim is to know the proportion of the friction moment caused by each frictional source in the bearing＇s total friction moment, which is helpful to optimize the bearing design to deduce the friction moment. In the model, the cage dynamic equations considering six degree-of-freedom and the balls dynamic equations considering two degree-of-freedom were solved.The good trends with different loads between the measured friction moments and computational results prove that the model under constant rate was validated. The computational results show that when the speed was set at 5 r/min, the bearing＇s maximum total friction moment when oscillation occurred was obviously larger than that occurred at a constant rate. At the onset of each oscillatory motion, the proportion of the friction moment caused by cage in the bearing＇s total friction moment was very high, and it increased with the increasing speed. The analyses of different cage thicknesses and different clearances between cage pocket and ball show that smaller thickness and clearance were preferred.     

月地返回轨道误差分析和第一次中途修正时机

分析了月地返回飞行过程中的误差因素和量级采用蒙特卡洛法和统计理论,定量分析了月地返回轨道入轨时刻误差、入轨状态误差、入轨控制误差、转移段定轨误差、中途修正控制误差等各种误差对轨道终端参数的影响。给出了月地返回轨道中途修正的计算步骤,然后以预期再入时刻和目标再入点为修正目标,采用微分改正法计算中途修正所需的速度增量。结合误差分析结果和测控条件,给出第一次中途修正时机的建议和一个具体算例,计算结果表明所提中途修正方法和策略可以修正入轨误差、定轨误差和控制误差的影响,使月地返回轨道可以按预期的再入时刻返回预定再入点。     

基于模型的民机自动飞行功能分析与设计

描述了民用飞机自动飞行系统基于模型的功能分析与架构设计过程。该研究采用符合现代系统工程理念的模型化设计形式,表明和确认系统功能在各种运行决策、人机交互和外部环境中的变化。它针对系统级功能静态、动态特性进行结构化分析和设计,系统性地研究外部对象、应用用例、功能逻辑、交联时序和状态跳转,在确认模型的合理性后生成逻辑架构与接口,将设计需求进行分配,用于设计实现和软硬件架构。该研究通过对飞行导引、自动推力、自动着陆、机组通告等功能的可用性和完整性进行分析检验,改进了功能需求设计。