构造Bayes与Fiducial预测区间的若干方法

对构造Bayes与Fiducial预测区间的几种方法进行了讨论,并举例比较了它们在使用中的方便程度。     

Gray bootstrap method for estimating frequency-varying random vibration signals with small samples

During environment testing, the estimation of random vibration signals （RVS） is an important technique for the airborne platform safety and reliability. However, the available meth- ods including extreme value envelope method （EVEM）, statistical tolerances method （STM） and improved statistical tolerance method （ISTM） require large samples and typical probability distri- bution. Moreover, the frequency-varying characteristic of RVS is usually not taken into account. Gray bootstrap method （GBM） is proposed to solve the problem of estimating frequency-varying RVS with small samples. Firstly, the estimated indexes are obtained including the estimated inter- val, the estimated uncertainty, the estimated value, the estimated error and estimated reliability. In addition, GBM is applied to estimating the single flight testing of certain aircraft. At last, in order to evaluate the estimated performance, GBM is compared with bootstrap method （BM） and gray method （GM） in testing analysis. The result shows that GBM has superiority for estimating dynamic signals with small samples and estimated reliability is proved to be 100% at the given confidence level.     

谈高校统计档案资料的整理与利用

文章从高校统计工作生成的档案资料出发,阐述了建立高校统计档案资料的重要性。对统计档案资料的收集、整理、保管和利用等问题进行了探讨,提出了一些基本思想。     

华北空管局从容应对奥运专机抵京高峰日

据奥运空管华北运行指挥中心航班计划统计,8月7日首都机场进入涉奥航班、专包机和公务机集中抵京高峰日,为确保大批国家元首、各国政府首脑专机安全顺畅抵达北京,华北空中交通管制局领导进驻指挥第一线,设备、人员全部到位,从容应对奥运空管专机保障重任,截至7日24时全天保障航班1340架次,其中专机45架次、涉澳航班316架次,创造了民航空管史上专机保障新记录。     

空袭目标威胁评估模型研究

以航路捷径、目标类型、机动特性、到达发射区近界的剩余时间，以及电子干扰为主要影响因素，结合多通道防空武器系统的特点，建立了基于层次分析法和模糊综合决策法的空袭目标威胁评估模型。用层次分析法确定各因素权重，以分段函数的形式给出权重系数。针对一给定的中程防空武器系统，用模糊统计计算各影响因素的隶属函数，并给出了模型的计算流程。仿真结果表明，所设计的模型能较准确地评估来袭目标的危险性，且具有较高的灵敏度。     

概率具有普遍意义

在事物必然的性质、方向和由此决定的活动范围之外,它发生、发展的每一具体变化都是偶然的.为了抓住偶然,就要求助于概率,概率已经成为我们的重要工具.