Pioneer 10 Doppler data analysis: Disentangling periodic and secular anomalies

This paper reports the results of an analysis of the Doppler tracking data of Pioneer probes which did show an anomalous behaviour. A software has been developed for the sake of performing a data analysis as independent as possible from that of Anderson et al. [Anderson, J., Laing, P.A., Lau, E.L., Liu, A.S., Nieto, M.M., Turyshev, S.G. Study of the anomalous acceleration of Pioneer 10 and 11. Phys. Rev. D 65, 082004, 2002], using the same data set. A first output of this new analysis is a confirmation of the existence of a secular anomaly with an amplitude about 0.8 nm s⁻² compatible with that reported by Anderson et al. A second output is the study of periodic variations of the anomaly, which we characterize as functions of the azimuthal angle φ$\phi$ defined by the directions Sun–Earth Antenna and Sun-Pioneer. An improved fit is obtained with periodic variations written as the sum of a secular acceleration and two sinusoids of the angles φ$\phi$ and 2φ$2\phi$. The tests which have been performed for assessing the robustness of these results are presented.     

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Reconstruction of space weather physical parameters on 400-year scale

The main goal of this paper is to get physically informative comprehensive data about dynamics of the solar magnetic field, geomagnetic field, and interplanetary magnetic field over large time scales. The total sunspot magnetic flux, aa and IDV indices of geomagnetic activity, the IMF strength, the dipole-octopole index of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun, and the open magnetic flux are reconstructed for 400 years. The reconstruction of the π index of the large-scale polar magnetic field of the Sun is performed for 150 years.     

Identification of sources of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations on the basis of proton aurora observations

The relationship between proton aurora and geomagnetic pulsations Pc1, which are an indicator of development of ion-cyclotron instability in the equatorial magnetosphere, are studied on the basis of the observations of proton aurora from the IMAGE satellite, observations of particle fluxes onboard the low-orbiting NOAA satellites, and geomagnetic pulsation observations at the Lovozero observatory. A conclusion is drawn that the subauroral spots in the proton emission projected into the magnetosphere near the plasmapause are two-dimensional images at the ionospheric “screen” of the region of intense scattering of energetic protons into the loss cone at the development of an ion-cyclotron instability.     

Alfven modes of solar coronal magnetic arches: Excitation of ballooning instability and modulation of flare emission

The effect of Alfven-type oscillations in a coronal magnetic arch on modulation of the gyrosynchrotron radiation and development of the ballooning instability in the arch is considered. On the basis of the energy method and the method of normal modes, the expressions are obtained for increments of ballooning instability at its swinging by natural oscillations of the arch. The conclusion is drawn that bending oscillations, which do not actually compress the plasma and, therefore, represent the Alfven-type modes, unlike the radial oscillations, are capable, under solar corona conditions, to effectively swing ballooning instability and, as a consequence, play a part of a trigger for solar flares. The ballooning instability of coronal arches is shown to be capable of causing formation of helmet-shaped structures in the lower solar corona. On the basis of calculations of the intensity modulation depth and the degree of circular polarization of non-thermal gyrosynchrotron radiation, under the assumption of excited Alfven oscillations of a coronal arch, the conclusion is drawn, that microwave observations at a frequency of > 10 GHz can be used for studying the conditions of excitation and propagation of Alfven modes in flare loops. The consequences of obtained results are discussed using the flare on April 15, 2002 as an example.     

Calculation of quasisynchronous orbits of a spacecraft around Phobos for solving the problem of landing on its surface

The problem of selecting quasi-synchronous orbits of a spacecraft around Phobos is considered. These quasi-synchronous orbits are far (with respect to the Hill’s sphere) quasi-satellite orbits with retrograde rotation in the restricted three body problem. The orbit should pass through a given point at a specified time instant. It should also possess a property of minimum distance from the Phobos surface at every passage above the region of planned landing. The equations of dynamics are represented in the form describing the orbit as a combination of motions in two drifting ellipses, inner and outer ellipses. The center of the outer ellipse is located on the inner ellipse. A formula is derived that relates averaged values of half-axes of the inner and outer ellipses. It is used for construction of the first approximation of numerically designed orbit, which makes it possible to simplify and speed up the computing process. The tables of initial conditions obtained as a result of calculations are presented.     

Calculation of tractive nozzle characteristics with altitude compensation

The numerical calculations of flows in conical and contoured nozzles with slots in the supersonic part that operate under overexpansion conditions are presented. The calculations were made with the aid of the authors’ algorithm and program of simulating turbulent two-dimensional (axisymmetric) flows of a viscous heat-conducting gas. The results of computational investigations of tractive slot nozzle characteristics and the amount of combustion product leakage from an annular slot depending on the flight altitude are given. It is shown that the flight altitude at which the gas flow through the annular slot is “chocked” depends on its size and location in the supersonic nozzle part.     

Electric currents from thunderstorms to the ionosphere during a solar cycle: Quasi-static modeling of the coupling mechanism

Conduction and displacement currents, and their sum the Maxwell current, generated over a thunderstorm (TS) with recurrent lightning discharges are investigated theoretically. The aim is to study better the influence of different factors on these currents, which form the link between thunderstorms and the ionosphere in the global atmospheric electrical circuit. The factors studied concern the thunderstorm characteristics (the charge separation current, and the lightning discharge parameters), as well as the atmospheric and cloud conductivity. Some of these factors may show long-term changes with the 11-year solar cycle, possibly realized through an inverse dependence of the cosmic ray flux on solar activity. Earlier investigations have suggested that the lightning-related charge redistribution and subsequent relaxation, rather than the high intensity current, is mainly the source of the energy coupled to the ionosphere. With respect to this, a quasi-electrostatic analytical model is proposed, based on Maxwell’s equations. The currents are generated by a TS modeled as a positive vertical dipole with charges which are first accumulated and then destroyed by lightning. Our computations show that the mean and peak values of the conduction and total Maxwell currents to the ionosphere depend significantly on the charge moment change. The mean currents are also sensitive to the reduction of the conductivity in thunderclouds. Small variations of the stratospheric conductivity (20% at geomagnetic latitude 40° and 40–50% at 55°) with the solar activity do not influence the currents to the ionosphere very much.     

Analytical approach to cosmic ray ionization by nuclei with charge Z in the middle atmosphere – Distribution of galactic CR effects

The effects of galactic and solar cosmic rays (CR) in the middle atmosphere are considered in this work. A new analytical approach for CR ionization by protons and nuclei with charge Z in the lower ionosphere and middle atmosphere is developed in this paper. For this purpose the ionization losses (dE/dh) according to the Bohr–Bethe–Bloch formula for the energetic charged particles are approximated in three different energy intervals. More accurate expressions for energy decrease E(h) and electron production rate profiles q(h) are derived. The obtained formulas allow comparatively easy computer programming. The integrand in q(h) gives the possibility for application of adequate numerical methods – such as Romberg method or Gauss quadrature, for the solution of the mathematical problem. On this way the process of interaction of cosmic ray particles with the upper, middle and lower atmosphere will be described much more realistically. Computations for cosmic ray ionization in the middle atmosphere are made. The full CR composition is taken into account: protons, Helium (α-particles), light L, medium M, heavy H and very heavy VH group of nuclei.