Forecasting the future in space: Highlights from the TechCast Project

Space technology and activities have changed markedly from the early days of the space era and are continuing to develop rapidly. The TechCast Project—set up to pool the knowledge of experts in the scientific fields—includes space in its predictions. Here its president reports on its space forecasts for the 21st century. The importance of the shift towards the privatization of space is noted and the near-to-medium-term impossibility of interstellar travel conceded. Contact with ETI is deemed much more likely, however.     

Radar Partial Coherence Theory: An Introduction

The nature of physical phenomena is such that scattering from portions of an object, a number of objects, or clutter, is not completely unrelated; the underlying environment causes some degree of order in the phenomenon. Radar partial coherence theory describes a structure for the general target, or clutter, and its relationship to radar cross section, waveform coding, and the radar output signal. The clutter ambiguity function is introduced for extended bodies and embraces the (Woodward) ambiguity function for a point target. Due to nonlinear effects caused by partial coherence within the general target, radar signals and targets are formulated in terms of mutual coherence functions. The basic quantities describing the radar output are 1) the radar mutual coherence function (formulated in terms of the radar waveform) and 2) the target mutual coherence function which depends upon target properties, physical environment, and viewing aspect. Random noise (independent point scatterers) and partially coherent portions of reflecting bodies are made accountable in the theory. Partial coherence effects are treated as patches of reflected energy: self-coherent energy patches plus mutually coherent energy among the patches.     

Controlling factors of Region 2 field-aligned current and its relationship to the ring current: Model results

One essential component of magnetosphere and ionosphere coupling is the closure of the ring current through Region 2 field-aligned current (FAC). Using the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM), which includes magnetosphere and ionosphere coupling by solving the kinetic equation of ring current particles and the closure of the electric currents between the two regions, we have investigated the effects of high latitude potential, ionospheric conductivity, plasma sheet density and different magnetic field models on the development of Region 2 field-aligned currents, and the relationship between R2 FACs and the ring current. It is shown that an increase in high latitude potential, ionospheric conductivity or plasma sheet density generally results in an increase in Region 2 FACs’ intensity, but R2 FACs display different local time and latitudinal distributions for changes in each parameter due to the different mechanisms involved. Our simulation results show that the magnetic field configuration of the inner magnetosphere is also an important factor in the development of Region 2 field-aligned current. More numerical experiments and observational results are needed in further our understanding of the complex relationship of the two current systems.     

Range Contamination and Its Effect on Measurements

Increased sensitivity and dynamic range of the instrumental techniques used in conjunction with experiments on ballistic ranges have brought to the fore many problems arising from contamination in the ranges themselves. This is seldom discussed when experimental results are presented but is frequently the controlling limitation on the accuracy of the measurements. The authors discuss contamination due to dirt and debris resultant from gun operation, gaseous impurities, and projectile-borne impurities as they have occurred at the Re-entry Simulating Range of Lincoln Laboratory. The effects of these contaminants on measurements are discussed and illustrated, and measures for controlling them are outlined. Finally, a particular range operation is described from the standpoint of impurity control.     

Ground assisted rendezvous with geosynchronous satellites for the disposal of space debris by means of Earth-oriented tethers

Previous studies have shown that extended length Earth-oriented tethers in the geosynchronous (GEO) region can be used to re-orbit satellites to disposal orbits. One such approach involves the extension of a GEO based tether, collection of a debris object, and retraction of the tether, which transfers the retracted configuration to a higher energy orbit for debris disposal. The re-extension of the tether after debris disposal returns the configuration to the near-GEO altitude. The practical feasibility of such a system depends on the ability to collect GEO debris objects, attach them to a deployed tether system, and retract the tethers for transfer to the disposal orbits.This study addresses the collection and delivery of debris objects to the deployed tether system in GEO. The investigation considers the number, type and the characteristics of the debris objects as well as the collection tug that can be ground controlled to detect, rendezvous and dock with the debris objects for their delivery to the tethers system.A total of more than 400 objects are in drift orbits crossing all longitudes either below or above the geostationary radius. More than 130 objects are also known to librate around the stable points in GEO with periods of libration up to five or more years. A characterization of the position and velocity of the debris objects relative to the collection tug is investigated. Typical rendezvous performance requirements for uncooperative GEO satellites are examined, and the similarities with other approaches such as the ESA's CX-OLEV commercial mission proposal to extend the life of geostationary telecommunication satellites are noted.     

Synthesis of Ambiguity Functions for Prescribed Responses

The synthesis of radar ambiguity functions is approached using burst-pulse time-frequency waveform coding. Noting that the parameters that define the central response of the ambiguity function for these code classes also define the waveform code, a statistical decision procedure based upon the central response is employed to obtain Bayes-type codes. The selection of the code parameters is subject to restrictions imposed by the noncentral response of the ambiguity function. Three classes of random time-frequency codes are treated: 1) uniform amplitude, uniform pulsewidth matched codes; 2) uniform amplitude, nonuniform pulsewidth matched codes; and 3) uniform amplitude, uniform pulsewidth with receiver amplitude mismatch.     

Initial results from the ISEE-1 and -2 plasma wave investigation

In this paper we present an initial survey of results from the plasma wave experiments on the ISEE-1 and -2 spacecraft which are in nearly identical orbits passing through the Earth's magnetosphere at radial distances out to about 22.5R _e . Essentially every crossing of the Earth's bow shock can be associated with an intense burst of electrostatic and whistler-mode turbulence at the shock, with substantial wave intensities in both the upstream and downstream regions. Usually the electric and magnetic field spectrum at the shock are quite similar for both spacecraft, although small differences in the detailed structure are sometimes apparent upstream and downstream of the shock, probably due to changes in the motion of the shock or propagation effects. Upstream of the shock emissions are often observed at both the fundamental, f _- ^p , and second harmonic, 2f _p ^- , of the electron plasma frequency. In the magnetosphere high resolution spectrograms of the electric field show an extremely complex distribution of plasma and radio emissions, with numerous resonance and cutoff effects. Electron density profiles can be obtained from emissions near the local electron plasma frequency. Comparisons of high resolution spectrograms of whistler-mode emissions such as chorus detected by the two spacecraft usually show a good overall similarity but marked differences in detailed structure on time scales less than one minute. Other types of locally generated waves, such as the (n+1/2)f _- ^g electron cyclotron waves, show a better correspondence between the two spacecraft. High resolution spectrograms of kilometric radio emissions are also presented which show an extremely complex frequency-time structure with many closely spaced narrow-band emissions.     

Mercury’s Weather-Beaten Surface: Understanding Mercury in the Context of Lunar and Asteroidal Space Weathering Studies

Mercury’s regolith, derived from the crustal bedrock, has been altered by a set of space weathering processes. Before we can interpret crustal composition, it is necessary to understand the nature of these surface alterations. The processes that space weather the surface are the same as those that form Mercury’s exosphere (micrometeoroid flux and solar wind interactions) and are moderated by the local space environment and the presence of a global magnetic field. To comprehend how space weathering acts on Mercury’s regolith, an understanding is needed of how contributing processes act as an interactive system. As no direct information (e.g., from returned samples) is available about how the system of space weathering affects Mercury’s regolith, we use as a basis for comparison the current understanding of these same processes on lunar and asteroidal regoliths as well as laboratory simulations. These comparisons suggest that Mercury’s regolith is overturned more frequently (though the characteristic surface time for a grain is unknown even relative to the lunar case), more than an order of magnitude more melt and vapor per unit time and unit area is produced by impact processes than on the Moon (creating a higher glass content via grain coatings and agglutinates), the degree of surface irradiation is comparable to or greater than that on the Moon, and photon irradiation is up to an order of magnitude greater (creating amorphous grain rims, chemically reducing the upper layers of grains to produce nanometer-scale particles of metallic iron, and depleting surface grains in volatile elements and alkali metals). The processes that chemically reduce the surface and produce nanometer-scale particles on Mercury are suggested to be more effective than similar processes on the Moon. Estimated abundances of nanometer-scale particles can account for Mercury’s dark surface relative to that of the Moon without requiring macroscopic grains of opaque minerals. The presence of nanometer-scale particles may also account for Mercury’s relatively featureless visible–near-infrared reflectance spectra. Characteristics of material returned from asteroid 25143 Itokawa demonstrate that this nanometer-scale material need not be pure iron, raising the possibility that the nanometer-scale material on Mercury may have a composition different from iron metal [such as (Fe,Mg)S]. The expected depletion of volatiles and particularly alkali metals from solar-wind interaction processes are inconsistent with the detection of sodium, potassium, and sulfur within the regolith. One plausible explanation invokes a larger fine fraction (grain size <45 μm) and more radiation-damaged grains than in the lunar surface material to create a regolith that is a more efficient reservoir for these volatiles. By this view the volatile elements detected are present not only within the grain structures, but also as adsorbates within the regolith and deposits on the surfaces of the regolith grains. The comparisons with findings from the Moon and asteroids provide a basis for predicting how compositional modifications induced by space weathering have affected Mercury’s surface composition.     

Modeling Piecewise-Linear Systems by Topological Techniques

Flowgraph techniques are extended to systems with piecewise-linear characteristics by developing criteria for construction of an optimum model from related subregions in which linearity holds. This requires the synthesis of several known techniques and results in a wide range of useful applications including: 1) devices with nonlinear characteristics which may be considered as linear over certain subregions; 2) networks whose response to changes in applied signal frequency or magnitude may be approximated by piecewise-linear asymptotes; 3) systems processing two or more signals simultaneously with different transfer or immitance characteristics for each signal; 4) circuits approximated by different equivalent circuits depending on the numerical values of critical parameters. Representative examples will illustrate these and similar applications. Procedures are presented to provide a logical, orderly, and effective approach to construct a model, to determine figures of merit, and to optimize the model for a prescribed region of operation or for a desired range of parameters.     

Synthetic Aperture Radar

The general theory of side-looking synthetic aperture radar systems is developed. A simple circuit-theory model is developed; the geometry of the system determines the nature of the prefilter and the receiver (or processor) is the postfilter. The complex distributed reflectivity density appears as the input, and receiver noise is first considered as the interference which limits performance. Analysis and optimization are carried out for three performance criteria (resolution, signal-to-noise ratio, and least squares estimation of the target field). The optimum synthetic aperture length is derived in terms of the noise level and average transmitted power. Range-Doppler ambiguity limitations and optical processing are discussed briefly. The synthetic aperture concept for rotating target fields is described. It is observed that, for a physical aperture, a side-looking radar, and a rotating target field, the azimuth resolution is ?/? where ? is the change in aspect angle over which the target field is viewed, The effects of phase errors on azimuth resolution are derived in terms of the power density spectrum of the derivative of the phase errors and the performance in the absence of phase errors.