基于"序列相对贴近度"的组合预测权值分配

在时间序列的组合预测权值分配问题上,为克服传统的均方误差倒数加权、熵权和最优化方法之不足,从预测值序列与评价样本序列间的贴近性出发,提出新方法综合衡量单一参与模型的适用性,并据此分配权值.详细给出了序列相对贴近度(SRND,Sequence Relative Nearness Degree)及与之相关的"序列趋势关联度"和"尺度区间熵"的概念,并提出基于SRND的权值分配方法.将SRND权值分配方法应用于航空发动机排气温度裕度参数时间序列的联合自回归滑动平均模型、函数系数自回归模型和径向基函数网络预测,有效地提高了预测准确度,获得优于均方误差倒数加权和熵权方法的组合性能,且运算量远小于最优化方法.     

Yohkoh observations of the solar corona

The Yohkoh soft X-ray telescope obtains several images every 90 minutes. Data from the declining phase of the solar cycle have been used to compare the X-ray signal with other indicators of activity and to study coronal heating. X-ray emission from a north polar coronal hole is found broadly consistent with results of previous EUV observations. In diffuse emission regions, temperature rises to around 2.2 MK and levels off in the height range 1.5 – 1.9 R_O. Such emission underlies streamers and may be the source of the low-speed solar wind. X-ray signatures for Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) events which involve the detection of reduced X-ray intensities in the corona, have been developed with Yohkoh data. CME observations are described     

The magnetotail and substorms

The tail plays a very active and important role in substorms. Magnetic flux eroded from the dayside magnetosphere is stored here. As more and more flux is transported to the magnetotail and stored, the boundary of the tail flares more, the field strength in the tail increases, and the currents strengthen and move closer to the Earth. Further, the plasma sheet thins and the magnetic flux crossing the neutral sheet lessens. At the onset of the expansion phase, the stored magnetic flux is returned from the tail and energy is deposited in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the expansion phase of isolated substorms, the flaring angle and the lobe field strength decrease, the plasma sheet thickens and more magnetic flux crosses the neutral sheet.In this review, we discuss the experimental evidence for these processes and present a phenomenological or qualitative model of the substorm sequence. In this model, the flux transport is driven by the merging of the magnetospheric and interplanetary magnetic fields. During the growth phase of substorms the merging rate on the dayside magnetosphere exceeds the reconnection rate in the neutral sheet. In order to remove the oversupply of magnetic flux in the tail, a neutral point forms in the near earth portion of the tail. If the new reconnection rate exceeds the dayside merging rate, then an isolated substorm results. However, a situation can occur in which dayside merging and tail reconnection are in equilibrium. The observed polar cap electric field and its correlation with the interplanetary magnetic field is found to be in accord with open magnetospheric models.     

Ground Testing of Inertial Navigators to Improve Dynamic Performance

A ground testing method has been devised to evaluate the dynamic errors of an inertial navigation system. A trimmed stationary inertial system in the navigation mode can be subjected to programmed platform orm drift rates, and generate position outputs which are compared with those of a perfect navigator. The linearized error equations for this testing mode are derived and the resulting position error propagation is analyzed using Kalman filtering in order to identify the error sources. A simulated platform with a fixed set of error sources is analyzed to evaluate this testing concept. An example is presented to show that the gyro and accelerometer scale factor and misalignment error coefficients can be estimated.     

A methodology for addressing support equipment obsolescence

The rapid growth of technology over the last twenty years is providing vastly improved capabilities for both avionics and avionics test systems. Unfortunately, an environment of rapid technological growth breeds a corresponding environment of rapid technological obsolescence. Test systems developed fifteen years ago are becoming increasingly more difficult to support due to obsolescence issues and, additionally, such a test system does not reflect the current state-of-the-art for automatic test equipment. The ability of a test system to evolve is essential to providing cost-effective support systems for electronic systems. The F-15 Tactical Electronic Warfare System (TEWS) Intermediate Support System (TISS) was developed under the Modular Automatic Test Equipment (MATE) guidelines to support the suite of F-15 electronic warfare LRUs. MATE imposed hardware architecture constraints, which were factors that contributed to its abandonment. However, the modular aspect of MATE has provided a system that can easily evolve with technological advancements. Modularity is the cornerstone of modern software systems and this is the aspect that has been exploited in the evolution of the TISS     

Comments on the Communication and Data Problems Associated with a Mars Trip During a Conjunction Phase

The analysis and comments presented in this paper are meant to establish the general communication parameters associated with Martian flyby probes and with lander and manned vehicles. Fundamental data transfer problems are reviewed to define comparisons and trends of tradeoffs for future studies. Selected focal points are based upon the long propagation path length, with inherent time delays, and the high noise produced by the sun. These problems are magnified because large quantities of data must be obtained to satisfy the needs of the scientific community and the curiosity of an interested public. A comparison of two communication systems is provided: the microwave spectrum and the optical spectrum, as represented by the microwaves at 2.3 GHz and the laser at 6328 ?. A method of cost effectiveness or value received from space missions (a criterion of power input for data quantity received) is also presented.     

Remote Attitude Sensing with Polarization-Modulated Light

A system concept for remote measurement of vehicle orientation with only passive devices mounted on a vehicle is presented. Three channels of polarization-modulated light are used to determine all three degrees of freedom of vehicle orientation. Two important system components are described, a polarization rotator and a retroreflector which leaves the polarization state invariant. Also, the method of data reduction is outlined and the system accuracy is discussed.     

Interplanetary travel and permanent injury to normal heart.

This hypothesis is that some crewmen on prolonged space flights may develop permanent myocardial injury despite the absence of coronary atherosclerosis and even without the hazards of radiation beyond orbit. This may resuIt from atrophy of skeletal muscle and bone resulting in magnesium ion deficiency predisposing to a vicious cycle with catecholamine elevations, with the latter aggravated by stress, dehydration-provoked angiotensin elevations, unremitting endurance exercise, and in turn a second vicious cycle with severe ischemia. Toxic free radicals can develop complicating ischemia and potential high radiation, with magnesium ion deficiency and high vascular catecholamines playing contributing roles. These free radicals may lead to inactivation of endothelium-derived relaxing factor (EDRF) causing coronary endothelial injury by a third vicious cycle, increased peripheral resistance and coronary vasospasm intensifying ischemia. Local and systemic thrombogenesis could contribute ultimately to focal fibrosis of the myocardium, if the ischemia is not recognized. Sufficient magnesium and time for repair are vital.     

Influence of ionic inorganic solutes on self-assembly and polymerization processes related to early forms of life: implications for a prebiotic aqueous medium

A commonly accepted view is that life began in a marine environment, which would imply the presence of inorganic ions such as Na+, Cl-, Mg2+, Ca2+, and Fe2+. We have investigated two processes relevant to the origin of life--membrane self-assembly and RNA polymerization--and established that both are adversely affected by ionic solute concentrations much lower than those of contemporary oceans. In particular, monocarboxylic acid vesicles, which are plausible models of primitive membrane systems, are completely disrupted by low concentrations of divalent cations, such as magnesium and calcium, and by high sodium chloride concentrations as well. Similarly, a nonenzymatic, nontemplated polymerization of activated RNA monomers in ice/eutectic phases (in a solution of low initial ionic strength) yields oligomers with > 80% of the original monomers incorporated, but polymerization in initially higher ionic strength aqueous solutions is markedly inhibited. These observations suggest that cellular life may not have begun in a marine environment because the abundance of ionic inorganic solutes would have significantly inhibited the chemical and physical processes that lead to self-assembly of more complex molecular systems.