Structure of the Program of Short-term Prediction of Powerful Solar Flares

Input data of the system are two-dimensional images and one-dimensional distributions of total and polarized solar emission at 5.2 cm wavelength obtained with SSRT. Together with photoheliograms, magnetograms, Hα-filtergrams and characteristics of active regions received from other sources, they form the initial database. The first stage includes superimposing the images, identifying microwave sources with active regions, assigning NOAA numbers to the sources, and determining for each active region the heliolatitude, extent, and inclination angle of the group's axis to the equator. These data are used to calculate the boundaries of longitude zones for each active region. A next stage involves determining the brightness temperatures of microwave sources less than the polarization distribution, the degree of polarization, and microwave emission flux, as well as calculating the parameters of microwave sources. Each parameter is assigned its own value of the weight factor, and the sum of values is used to draw the conclusion about the flare occurrence probability in each active region and on the Sun in general.      

Parametric Identification of a Return Space Vehicle during Vertical Landing

Real values of parameters for a space vehicle and its steering devices are specified by using the motion parameters measured in flight based on solving the differential equations of motion.     

Design and Experimental Analysis of Aircrew Design Parameters to Vertical Takeoff and Landing

The calculation of the design parameters of lifting airscrew systems with fixed and tilted rotor, including the investigation of the operation schemes of actuators for the propeller control system, is carried out.     

Midlatitude ionospheric F2-layer response to eruptive solar events-caused geomagnetic disturbances over Hungary during the maximum of the solar cycle 24: A case study

In our study we analyze and compare the response and behavior of the ionospheric F2 and of the sporadic E-layer during three strong (i.e., Dst?<??100nT) individual geomagnetic storms from years 2012, 2013 and 2015, winter time period. The data was provided by the state-of the art digital ionosonde of the Széchenyi István Geophysical Observatory located at midlatitude, Nagycenk, Hungary (IAGA code: NCK, geomagnetic latitude: 46.17° geomagnetic longitude: 98.85°). The local time of the sudden commencement (SC) was used to characterize the type of the ionospheric storm (after Mendillo and Narvaez, 2010). This way two regular positive phase (RPP) ionospheric storms and one no-positive phase (NPP) storm have been analyzed. In all three cases a significant increase in electron density of the foF2 layer can be observed at dawn/early morning (around 6:00 UT, 07:00 LT). Also we can observe the fade-out of the ionospheric layers at night during the geomagnetically disturbed time periods. Our results suggest that the fade-out effect is not connected to the occurrence of the sporadic E-layers.     

一种新型多普勒噪声抑制技术对BepiColombo任务无线电科学实验的性能提升

在欧洲空间局和日本宇宙开发机构联合开展的BepiColombo水星任务中,将开展水星轨道器无线电科学实验,包括估计水星的引力场及其旋转状态,并对广义相对论进行验证。目前地面系统和星上设备的主流配置可以在无线电科学实验中建立X/X、X/Ka和Ka/Ka多个频段的链路,测速精度可达3 um/s（1 000 s积分）,测距精度为20 cm。提出了基于时延机械噪声对消技术提高无线电科学实验性能的方案。时延机械噪声对消技术需要处理在两个测站不同时刻的测量数据,一个测站实施双向多普勒测距,对另一个单收测站的要求较为严格,该测站需要具有较好的对流层条件。这种方法能够显著降低Ka频段双向链路的主要测量噪声,包括由对流层和天线机械系统震动引起的噪声。我们给出了端到端的仿真性能,并估计了在使用时延机械噪声对消技术前提下的水星引力场和旋转状态。考虑使用NASA位于美国本土戈尔德斯敦的DSS-25天线或欧空局位于阿根廷马拉圭的DSA-3天线作为双程测量站,并考虑使用位于智力的APEX天文观测天线作为单收站。分析结果表明在最好的噪声条件下,使用DSA-3天线作为双程测量站时,时延机械噪声对消技术可将待估计的全局和局部参数的估计精度提升一倍。对于无线电科学实验的目标,这一可能的性能提升对行星地质物理学很有意义,它将有益于研究水星内部的结构。     

Order out of Randomness: Self-Organization Processes in Astrophysics

Self-organization is a property of dissipative nonlinear processes that are governed by a global driving force and a local positive feedback mechanism, which creates regular geometric and/or temporal patterns, and decreases the entropy locally, in contrast to random processes. Here we investigate for the first time a comprehensive number of (17) self-organization processes that operate in planetary physics, solar physics, stellar physics, galactic physics, and cosmology. Self-organizing systems create spontaneous “order out of randomness”, during the evolution from an initially disordered system to an ordered quasi-stationary system, mostly by quasi-periodic limit-cycle dynamics, but also by harmonic (mechanical or gyromagnetic) resonances. The global driving force can be due to gravity, electromagnetic forces, mechanical forces (e.g., rotation or differential rotation), thermal pressure, or acceleration of nonthermal particles, while the positive feedback mechanism is often an instability, such as the magneto-rotational (Balbus-Hawley) instability, the convective (Rayleigh-Bénard) instability, turbulence, vortex attraction, magnetic reconnection, plasma condensation, or a loss-cone instability. Physical models of astrophysical self-organization processes require hydrodynamic, magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD), plasma, or N-body simulations. Analytical formulations of self-organizing systems generally involve coupled differential equations with limit-cycle solutions of the Lotka-Volterra or Hopf-bifurcation type.     

Abundances,Ionization States,Temperatures, and FIP in Solar Energetic Particles

The relative abundances of chemical elements and isotopes have been our most effective tool in identifying and understanding the physical processes that control populations of energetic particles. The early surprise in solar energetic particles (SEPs) was 1000-fold enhancements in \({}^{3}\mbox{He}/{}^{4}\mbox{He}\) from resonant wave-particle interactions in the small “impulsive” SEP events that emit electron beams that produce type III radio bursts. Further studies found enhancements in Fe/O, then extreme enhancements in element abundances that increase with mass-to-charge ratio \(A/Q\), rising by a factor of 1000 from He to Au or Pb arising in magnetic reconnection regions on open field lines in solar jets. In contrast, in the largest SEP events, the “gradual” events, acceleration occurs at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast, wide coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Averaging many events provides a measure of solar coronal abundances, but \(A/Q\)-dependent scattering during transport causes variations with time; thus if Fe scatters less than O, Fe/O is enhanced early and depleted later. To complicate matters, shock waves often reaccelerate impulsive suprathermal ions left over or trapped above active regions that have spawned many impulsive events. Direct measurements of ionization states \(Q\) show coronal temperatures of 1–2 MK for most gradual events, but impulsive events often show stripping by matter traversal after acceleration. Direct measurements of \(Q\) are difficult and often unavailable. Since both impulsive and gradual SEP events have abundance enhancements that vary as powers of \(A/Q\), we can use abundances to deduce the probable \(Q\)-values and the source plasma temperatures during acceleration, ≈3 MK for impulsive SEPs. This new technique also allows multiple spacecraft to measure temperature variations across the face of a shock wave, measurements otherwise unavailable and provides a new understanding of abundance variations in the element He. Comparing coronal abundances from SEPs and from the slow solar wind as a function of the first ionization potential (FIP) of the elements, remaining differences are for the elements C, P, and S. The theory of the fractionation of ions by Alfvén waves shows that C, P, and S are suppressed because of wave resonances during chromospheric transport on closed magnetic loops but not on open magnetic fields that supply the solar wind. Shock waves can accelerate ions from closed coronal loops that easily escape as SEPs, while the solar wind must emerge on open fields.     

Impact of Distance Determinations on Galactic Structure. I. Young and Intermediate-Age Tracers

Here we discuss impacts of distance determinations on the Galactic disk traced by relatively young objects. The Galactic disk, \(\sim40~\mbox{kpc}\) in diameter, is a cross-road of studies on the methods of measuring distances, interstellar extinction, evolution of galaxies, and other subjects of interest in astronomy. A proper treatment of interstellar extinction is, for example, crucial for estimating distances to stars in the disk outside the small range of the solar neighborhood. We’ll review the current status of relevant studies and discuss some new approaches to the extinction law. When the extinction law is reasonably constrained, distance indicators found in today and future surveys are telling us stellar distribution and more throughout the Galactic disk. Among several useful distance indicators, the focus of this review is Cepheids and open clusters (especially contact binaries in clusters). These tracers are particularly useful for addressing the metallicity gradient of the Galactic disk, an important feature for which comparison between observations and theoretical models can reveal the evolution of the disk.     

Water Reservoirs in Small Planetary Bodies: Meteorites,Asteroids, and Comets

Asteroids and comets are the remnants of the swarm of planetesimals from which the planets ultimately formed, and they retain records of processes that operated prior to and during planet formation. They are also likely the sources of most of the water and other volatiles accreted by Earth. In this review, we discuss the nature and probable origins of asteroids and comets based on data from remote observations, in situ measurements by spacecraft, and laboratory analyses of meteorites derived from asteroids. The asteroidal parent bodies of meteorites formed \(\leq 4\) Ma after Solar System formation while there was still a gas disk present. It seems increasingly likely that the parent bodies of meteorites spectroscopically linked with the E-, S-, M- and V-type asteroids formed sunward of Jupiter’s orbit, while those associated with C- and, possibly, D-type asteroids formed further out, beyond Jupiter but probably not beyond Saturn’s orbit. Comets formed further from the Sun than any of the meteorite parent bodies, and retain much higher abundances of interstellar material. CI and CM group meteorites are probably related to the most common C-type asteroids, and based on isotopic evidence they, rather than comets, are the most likely sources of the H and N accreted by the terrestrial planets. However, comets may have been major sources of the noble gases accreted by Earth and Venus. Possible constraints that these observations can place on models of giant planet formation and migration are explored.     

Probing the origin of the iron Kα line around stellar and supermassive black holes using X-ray polarimetry

Asymmetric, broad iron lines are a common feature in the X-ray spectra of both X-ray binaries (XRBs) and type-1 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). It was suggested that the distortion of the Fe Kα emission results from Doppler and relativistic effects affecting the radiative transfer close to the strong gravitational well of the central compact object: a stellar mass black hole (BH) or neutron star (NS) in the case of XRBs, or a super massive black hole (SMBH) in the case of AGN. However, alternative approaches based on reprocessing and transmission of radiation through surrounding media also attempt to explain the line broadening. So far, spectroscopic and timing analyzes have not yet convinced the whole community to discriminate between the two scenarios. Here we study to which extent X-ray polarimetric measurements of black hole X-ray binaries (BHXRBs) and type-1 AGN could help to identify the possible origin of the line distortion. To do so, we report on recent simulations obtained for the two BH flavors and show that the proposed scenarios are found to behave differently in polarization degree and polarization angle. A relativistic origin for the distortion is found to be more probable in the context of BHXRBs, supporting the idea that the same mechanism should lead the way also for AGN. We show that the discriminating polarization signal could have been detectable by several X-ray polarimetry missions proposed in the past.