Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Observer-type Kalman innovation filter for uncertain linear systems

An observer-type of Kalman innovation filtering algorithm to find a practically implementable "best" Kalman filter, and such an algorithm based on the evolutionary programming (EP) optima-search technique, are proposed, for linear discrete-time systems with time-invariant unknown-but-hounded plant and noise uncertainties. The worst-case parameter set from the stochastic uncertain system represented by the interval form with respect to the implemented "best" filter is also found in this work for demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed filtering scheme. The new EP-based algorithm utilizes the global optima-searching capability of EP to find the optimal Kalman filter and state estimates at every iteration, which include both the best possible worst case Interval and the optimal nominal trajectory of the Kalman filtering estimates of the system state vectors. Simulation results are included to show that the new algorithm yields more accurate estimates and is less conservative as compared with other related robust filtering schemes     

Paramecium--a model system for studying cellular graviperception.

Experiments under varied gravitational accelerations as well as in density-adjusted media showed that sensation of gravity in protists may be linked to the known principles of mechanosensation. Paramecium, a ciliate with clear graviresponses (gravitaxis and gravikinesis) is an ideal model system to prove this hypothesis since the ciliary activity and thus the swimming behaviour is controlled by the membrane potential. It has also been assumed that the cytoplasmic mass causes a distinct stimulation of the bipolarly distributed mechano-sensitive K+ and Ca2+ ion channels in the plasma membrane in dependence of the spatial orientation of the cell. In order to prove this hypothesis, different channel blockers are currently under investigation. Gadolinium did not inhibit gravitaxis in Paramecium, showing that it does not specifically block gravireceptors. Further studies concentrated on the question of whether second messengers are involved in the gravity signal transduction chain. Exposure to 5 g for up to 10 min led to a significant increase in cAMP.     

GPS based onboard and onground orbit operations for small satellites

In extension to common applications such as groundtrack displays and antenna steering, the SGP4 orbit model is proposed for operational orbit determination in small satellite missions. SGP4 is an analytical orbit model for Low-Earth orbiting satellites that is widely used for the propagation of NORAD twoline elements. Twoline elements may hence be generated completely independent of NORAD. Their use as exclusive source of orbital information simplifies the operations concept and reduces mission costs through the extensive use of existing low-cost mission support software. Due to small computer resource requirements of 8–10kByte, the SGP4 model may also be applied for onboard orbit computations making use of e.g. a 80186 processor, thus ensuring full compatibility of ground-based and onboard operations. The proposed approach is particularly suited in combination with a space-borne GPS receiver, were the C/A-code navigation solutions are treated as measurements that are adjusted in a least-squares sense using the SGP4 model. As consequence, inherent drawbacks of the pure navigation solutions such as data gaps and scatter as well as limited velocity accuracy are avoided, while the operational navigation activities are kept at a minimum. The feasibility of the concept is illustrated based on real GPS navigation data from the TOPEX/Poseidon and the MIR space station with an inherent data quality of 50–100 m. It is shown that 3 hours of data within a 4 day period are sufficient to keep the position error within 4 km, that is considered sufficient for most applications.     

Century scale solar variability imprinted in the 44Ti activity in meteorites.

The measurements of gamma-activity of the 44Ti (T1/2 = 66.6 years) produced by spallation reaction of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) in Alfianello, Olivenza, Rio Negro, Dhajala and Torino meteorites, which fell in the time interval 1883 AD (Alfianello)-1988 AD (Torino), show a century scale modulation, connected to long-term solar-wind flux variations in the interplanetary space. The variation of the 44Ti activity with the time of fall of meteorites is qualitatively consistent with the Gleissberg solar cycle, but the amplitude is three-four times higher than expected (about 5%) for GCR flux modulated by solar activity, as determined solely by the sunspot number. The cosmogenic 44Ti is a suitable radioisotope for this investigation, but its activity in meteorites is very low. We performed these measurements in the underground low level counting station of Monte dei Cappuccini in Torino, by means of a big hyperpure Ge crystal (approximately 2 kg) in selective coincidence with a heavy NaI (T1) scintillation detector (approximately 28 kg). This system allows a reliable and non destructive measurement of 44Ti (44Sc) in meteorites of 200-1200 g in weight. The background is about 1 count per day in the gamma-peak at 1157 keV of 44Sc in equilibrium with its parent 44Ti. The high stability of the performance allows long-lasting runs (approximately 10(7) s) in order to attain results with a standard deviation up to about 10%.     

Aeolian Processes and their Effects on Understanding the Chronology of Mars

Aeolian (wind) processes can transport particles over large distances on Mars, leading to the modification or removal of surface features, formation of new landforms, and mantling or burial of surfaces. Erosion of mantling deposits by wind deflation can exhume older surfaces. These processes and their effects on the surface must be taken into account in using impact crater statistics to derive chronologies on Mars. In addition, mapping the locations, relative ages, and orientations of aeolian features can provide insight into Martian weather, climate, and climate history.     

Scanning, Tracking, and Mapping State Variable Estimation Algorithms

Recursive state equation estimation algorithms are derived to determine optimal estimation error covariance and state estimate for a linear dynamic system, driven by time-varying and positionverying (or angle-varying) functions whose a priori covariance are described. Retracing the same trajectory with the system measuring device causes the position varying function to repeat and can significantly reduce estimation errors. Applications for these algorithms include improving accuracy of a position dependent quantity to be mapped, or recursively processing radar or sonar data from repeating scans over the same area. Three types of return path patterns are considered: 1) multiple independent returns, 2) reverse returns, and 3) cyclical returns.     

Aiming at a 1-cm Orbit for Low Earth Orbiters: Reduced-Dynamic and Kinematic Precise Orbit Determination

The computation of high-accuracy orbits is a prerequisite for the success of Low Earth Orbiter (LEO) missions such as CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. The mission objectives of these satellites cannot be reached without computing orbits with an accuracy at the few cm level. Such a level of accuracy might be achieved with the techniques of reduced-dynamic and kinematic precise orbit determination (POD) assuming continuous Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (SST) by the Global Positioning System (GPS). Both techniques have reached a high level of maturity and have been successfully applied to missions in the past, for example to TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P), leading to (sub-)decimeter orbit accuracy. New LEO gravity missions are (to be) equipped with advanced GPS receivers promising to provide very high quality SST observations thereby opening the possibility for computing cm-level accuracy orbits. The computation of orbits at this accuracy level does not only require high-quality GPS receivers, but also advanced and demanding observation preprocessing and correction algorithms. Moreover, sophisticated parameter estimation schemes need to be adapted and extended to allow the computation of such orbits. Finally, reliable methods need to be employed for assessing the orbit quality and providing feedback to the different processing steps in the orbit computation process. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Role of BIT in support system maintenance and availability

The role of built in test (BIT) in electronic systems has grown in prominence with the advances in system complexity and concern over maintenance lifecycle costs of large systems. In an environment where standards drive system designs (and provide an avenue for focused advancement in technology), standards for BIT are very much in an evolutionary state. The reasons for advancing the effectiveness of BIT include reduced support overhead, greater, confidence in operation, and increased system availability. The cost of supporting military electronic systems (avionics, communications, and weapons systems) has driven much of the development in BIT technology. But what about the systems that support these end items that contain test and measurement instrumentation - such as automatic test equipment (ATE), simulators and avionics development suites? There has also been a beneficial effect on the maintenance and availability of these systems due to the infusion of BIT into their component assemblies. But the effect has been much more sporadic and fragmented. This paper looks at the state of BIT in test and measurement instruments, explain its affect on system readiness, and present ideas on how to improve BIT technologies and standards. This will not provide definitive answers to BIT development questions, since the factors that affect it are specific to the instrument itself. The topics covered in this paper are: definitions of built-in test, instrument BIT history, importance of BIT fault coverage and isolation in support systems, overview of BIT development process issues that limit the effectiveness of BIT Standards related to instrument BIT, making BIT more effective in support system maintenance and availability and conclusions.