Robust Kalman filter design for predictive wind shear detection

Severe low-altitude wind shear is a threat to aviation safety. Newly developed airborne sensors measure the radial component of wind along a line directly in front of an aircraft. The authors use optimal estimation theory to define a detection algorithm to warn of hazardous wind shear from these sensors. To achieve robustness, a wind shear detection algorithm must distinguish threatening wind shear from less hazardous gustiness, despite variations in wind shear structure. Statistical analysis methods to refine wind shear detection algorithm robustness are presented. Computational methods predict the ability to warn of severe wind shear and avoid false warning. Comparative capability of the detection algorithm as a function of its design parameters is determined, identifying designs that provide robust detection of severe wind shear     

Multitarget detection using Kalman-based average displacementestimator

The anomaly in the displacement estimates obtained from a low-level Kalman-based average displacement estimator is used to detect multiple targets in a forward-looking infrared (FLIR) scene. The displacement estimates originating from the targets could be associated with the detected multiple targets and an updated estimated position of the target could be obtained. This procedure could be repeated for all targets in the scene to obtain multitarget tracking. The behavior of the expected value of the displacement estimates as a function of the number of iterations is investigated. The behavior of the displacement error covariance matrix and the Kalman gain matrix are discussed as functions of the number of iterations     

The mass and helium discrepancy in massive stars: The case Vela X-1

A NLTE-analysis is presented of high S/N spectra of the optical component of the standard massive X-ray binary Vela X-1. In combination with the orbital parameters we conclude that the optical star is highly helium enriched and is significantly overluminous compared to standard evolutionary tracks of massive accretion stars. We then propose a new accretion model able to explain these features.     

Phase Space Density Analysis of Energy Transport in the Earth’s Magnetotail

Two energetic events in the Earth’s magnetotail detected by Geotail are examined with detailed analysis of three-dimensional velocity phase space density. It is found that the occurrence of multiple ion components is high during these dynamic episodes. Different populations evolve independently of each other, suggesting particles from multiple activity sites contributing to the observed phase space density. The transport properties with consideration of multiple components are evaluated, with the result showing significant differences from those based on a single fluid approach. This comparison indicates that precise evaluation of the energy and magnetic flux transport of energetic events in the magnetotail requires resolving individual populations in the phase space density.     

A Possible Transfer Mechanism for the 11-Year Solar Cycle to the Lower Stratosphere

Observational evidence of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) modulation of stratosphere temperatures and winds from the ERA-40 dataset is reviewed, with emphasis on the Northern winter hemisphere. A frequency modulation of sudden warming events is noted, with warmings occurring earlier in solar minimum periods than in solar maximum periods. The observed interaction between the influence of the SC and the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) on the frequency of sudden warmings is noted as a possible clue for understanding their mechanism of influence. A possible transfer route for the 11-year solar cycle from the equatorial stratopause region to the lowest part of the stratosphere is proposed, via an influence on sudden warming events and the associated induced meridional circulation. SC and QBO composites of zonal wind anomalies show anomalous wind distributions in the subtropical upper stratosphere in early winter. Mechanistic model experiments are reviewed that demonstrate a sensitivity of sudden warmings to small wind anomalies in this region. Various diagnostics from these experiments are shown, including EP fluxes and their divergence and also the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex, in order to understand the mechanism of the influence. Some recent GCM experiments to investigate the SC/QBO interaction are also described. They simulate reasonably well the observed SC/QBO interaction of sudden warming events and appear to support the hypothesis that tropical/subtropical upper stratospheric wind anomalies are an important influence on the timing of sudden warmings.     

Experimental Aspects of Mid-Frequency Pulsations (f≈10–100 mHz) in the Southern Polar Cap

We review the results obtained in the frequency range of Pc3 (22-100 mHz) and Pc4 (7-22 mHz) pulsations at Italian Antarctic stations in the southern polar cap (“Mario Zucchelli”, at Terra Nova Bay, TNB, 80^˚.S; “Concordia”, the Italian/French base at Dome C, DMC, 89^˚.S). The absence of a midnight enhancement in the pulsation power suggests a negligible substorm influence at extreme latitudes, while the sharp noon enhancement, which appears only at TNB, is determined by the closer proximity of the station to cusp related phenomena. The relationship between the frequency of the band-limited signals and the interplanetary magnetic field strength, the cone angle influence, and the higher correlation of the Pc3 power with the solar wind speed in the morning hours suggest a global scenario in which upstream waves would be mainly responsible for the mid-frequency activity in the polar cap. However, the polarization pattern is odd with respect to the predictions for tailward propagating modes.     

An Introduction to Theory and Models of CMEs, Shocks, and Solar Energetic Particles

We present a brief introduction to the essential physics of coronal mass ejections as well as a review of theory and models of CME initiation, solar energetic particle (SEP) acceleration, and shock propagation. A brief review of the history of CME models demonstrates steady progress toward an understanding of CME initiation, but it is clear that the question of what initiates CMEs has still not been solved. For illustration, we focus on the flux cancellation model and the breakout model. We contrast the similarities and differences between these models, and we examine how their essential features compare with observations. We review the generation of shocks by CMEs. We also outline the theoretical ideas behind the origin of a gradual SEP event at the evolving CME-driven coronal/interplanetary shock and the origin of “impulsive” SEP events at flare sites of magnetic reconnection below CMEs. We argue that future developments in models require focused study of “campaign events” to best utilize the wealth of available CME and SEP observations.     

Energetic Hydrogen and Oxygen Atoms Observed on the Nightside of Mars

We present measurements of energetic hydrogen and oxygen atoms (ENAs) on the nightside of Mars detected by the neutral particle detector (NPD) of ASPERA-3 on Mars Express. We focus on the observations for which the field-of-view of NPD was directed at the nightside of Mars or at the region around the limb, thus monitoring the flow of ENAs towards the nightside of the planet. We derive energy spectra and total fluxes, and have compiled maps of hydrogen ENA outflow. The hydrogen ENA intensities reach 10⁵ cm⁻² sr⁻¹ s⁻¹, but no oxygen ENA signals above the detection threshold of 10⁴ cm⁻² sr⁻¹ s⁻¹ are observed. These intensities are considerably lower than most theoretical predictions. We explain the discrepancy as due to an overestimation of the charge-exchange processes in the models for which too high an exospheric density was assumed. Recent UV limb emission measurements (Galli et al., this issue) point to a hydrogen exobase density of 10¹⁰ m⁻³ and a very hot hydrogen component, whereas the models were based on a hydrogen exobase density of 10¹² m⁻³ and a temperature of 200 K predicted by Krasnopolsky and Gladstone (1996). Finally, we estimate the global atmospheric loss rate of hydrogen and oxygen due to the production of ENAs.     

Differential-game-based guidance law using target orientation observations

Modern 4th generation air-to-air missiles are quite capable of dealing with today's battlefield needs. Advanced aerodynamics, highly efficient warheads and smart target acquisition systems combine to yield higher missile lethality than ever. However, in order to intercept highly maneuverable targets, such as future unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAV), or to achieve higher tracking precision for missiles equipped with smaller warheads, further improvement in the missile guidance system is still needed. A new concept is presented here for deriving improved differential-game-based guidance laws that make use of information about the target orientation, which is acquired via an imaging seeker. The underlying idea is that of using measurements of the target attitude as a leading indicator of target acceleration. Knowledge of target attitude reduces the reachable set of target acceleration, facilitating the computation of an improved estimate of the zero-effort miss (ZEM) distance. In consequence, missile guidance accuracy is significantly improved. The new concept is applied in a horizontal interception scenario, where it is assumed that the target maneuver direction, constituting a partial attitude information, can be extracted via processing target images, acquired by an imaging sensor. The derivation results in a new guidance law that explicitly exploits the direction of the target acceleration. The performance of the new guidance law is studied via a computer simulation, which demonstrates its superiority over existing state-of-the-art differential-game-based guidance laws. It is demonstrated that a significant decrease in the miss distance can be expected via the use of partial target orientation information.     

Spectral-domain covariance estimation with a priori knowledge

A knowledge-aided spectral-domain approach to estimating the interference covariance matrix used in space-time adaptive processing (STAP) is proposed. Prior knowledge of the range-Doppler clutter scene is used to identify geographic regions with homogeneous scattering statistics. Then, minimum-variance spectral estimation is used to arrive at a spectral-domain clutter estimate. Finally, space-time steering vectors are used to transform the spectral-domain estimate into a data-domain estimate of the clutter covariance matrix. The proposed technique is compared with ideal performance and to the fast maximum likelihood technique using simulated results. An investigation of the performance degradation that can occur due to various inaccurate knowledge assumptions is also presented