Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

DIRECT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF MULTIPHASE FLOWS

INTRODUCTIONMultiphase and multifluid flows are commonin many natural and technologically importantprocesses. Rain,spray combustion,spray paint-ing,and boiling heat transfer are just a few ex-amples.While it is the overall,integral charac-teristics of such flows that are of most interest,the global behavior is determined to a large de-gree by the evolution of the smallestscales in theflow.The combustion of sprays,for example,depends on the size and the number density ofthe drops.Generally…     

Regolith X-Ray Imaging Spectrometer (REXIS) Aboard the OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return Mission

The Regolith X-ray Imaging Spectrometer (REXIS) is the student collaboration experiment proposed and built by an MIT-Harvard team, launched aboard NASA’s OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission. REXIS complements the scientific investigations of other OSIRIS-REx instruments by determining the relative abundances of key elements present on the asteroid’s surface by measuring the X-ray fluorescence spectrum (stimulated by the natural solar X-ray flux) over the range of energies 0.5 to 7 keV. REXIS consists of two components: a main imaging spectrometer with a coded aperture mask and a separate solar X-ray monitor to account for the Sun’s variability. In addition to element abundance ratios (relative to Si) pinpointing the asteroid’s most likely meteorite association, REXIS also maps elemental abundance variability across the asteroid’s surface using the asteroid’s rotation as well as the spacecraft’s orbital motion. Image reconstruction at the highest resolution is facilitated by the coded aperture mask. Through this operation, REXIS will be the first application of X-ray coded aperture imaging to planetary surface mapping, making this student-built instrument a pathfinder toward future planetary exploration. To date, 60 students at the undergraduate and graduate levels have been involved with the REXIS project, with the hands-on experience translating to a dozen Master’s and Ph.D. theses and other student publications.     

Energy Spectrum of Galactic 10–100 MeV Protons in Quiet Sun Periods

The dynamics of the proton energy spectrum during the solar cycle is studied. The spectra were determined by 1–100 MeV particle fluxes measured by different instruments mounted aboard the Earth's IMP-8 satellite for more than one hundred quiet-time intervals in the period between 1974 and 1991. The galactic branch of the spectra (E_p > 10 MeV) constructed for every quiet interval was fitted by a power law function, J =CE. The theory predicts that in the 1–100 MeV energy range, where the adiabatic cooling of particles is dominant, = 1, while we have derived a double-peak distribution. The main maximum has the mean value = 1.35. The mean value of the second, much weaker maximum, is = 0.95. Within the main maximum, values are distributed in accordance with the Gaussian law with a standard deviation D/ = 0.12. The substantial difference of from unity requires the elaboration of a new model of modulation processes in the inner heliosphere. The values corresponding to the second maximum show that modulation processes correspond sometimes to theoretical conceptions. It is shown that correlates weakly with parameters A and describing the solar branch of the spectrum (J(E) = AE^–). At the same time, a more significant correlation is observed between and the solar activity index, R_z, the counting rate of the Deep River neutron monitor, and the energy value in the minimum of the energy spectrum flux, E_min.     

A method for constructing an airfoil using a specified chord velocity diagram

A problem of determining a shape of the airfoil being streamlined by a potential incompressible inviscid flow is solved by the successive approximation method using a specified chord velocity diagram. It is shown that a closed airfoil that possesses a specified chord velocity diagram can be constructed with a sufficient accuracy; if the chord diagram is unsuccessfully specified, the closed airfoil may prove to be not univalent, that is, physically unrealizable.     

Amplification of the influence of solar flux variations on the winter stratosphere by planetary waves

Recent observational evidence has suggested that variations in solar activity may affect winter stratospheric polar ozone and temperature levels. The paucity of direct sunlight available during this season points strongly to a dynamical mechanism. We have carried out several large ensemble experiments within the middle atmosphere and the coupled middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere to simulate the radiative/dynamical coupling via planetary waves for a range of solar fluxes. In the former case, the model response in the winter stratosphere was linear and of the order of the summer stratopause forcing, whilst in the latter, the level of correlation in the winter stratosphere remained high, but was diluted over a wider volume. The inclusion of the upper atmosphere enhanced the winter polar stratospheric response by a factor of three.     

Modeling of ionospheric parameter variations in East Asia during the moderate geomagnetic disturbances

The results of modeling of ionospheric disturbances observed in the East Asian region during moderate storms are presented. The numerical model for ionosphere–plasmasphere coupling developed at the ISTP SB RAS is used to interpret the data of observations at ionospheric stations located in the longitudinal sector of 90–130°E at latitudes from auroral zone to equator. There is obtained a reasonable agreement between measurements and modeling results for winter and equinox. In the summer ionosphere, at the background of high ionization by the solar EUV radiation in the quiet geomagnetic period the meridional thermospheric wind strongly impacts the electron concentration in the middle and auroral ionosphere. The consistent calculations of the thermospheric wind permit to obtain the model results which are closer to summer observations. The actual information about the space-time variations of thermosphere and magnetosphere parameters should be taken into account during storms.     

High resolution radar clutter statistics

The generalized compound probability density function (GC-pdf) is presented for modeling high resolution radar clutter. In particular, the model is used to describe deviation of the speckle component from the Rayleigh to Weibull or other pdfs with longer tails. The GC-pdf is formed using the generalized gamma (GΓ) pdf to describe both the speckle and the modulation component of the radar clutter. The proposed model is analyzed and thermal noise is incorporated into it. The validation of the GC-pdf with real data is carried out employing the statistical moments as well as goodness-of-fit tests. A large variety of experimental data is used for this purpose. The GC-pdf outperforms the K-pdf in modeling high resolution radar clutter and reveals its structural characteristics     

Dynamic dissipative compensators for multibody flexible spacestructures

The stability characteristics of dynamic dissipative compensators are investigated for multibody flexible space structures having nonlinear dynamics. The problem addressed is that of proving asymptotic stability of dynamic dissipative compensators. The stability proof uses the Lyapunov approach and exploits the inherent passivity of such systems. For such systems these compensators are shown to be robust to parametric uncertainties and unmodeled dynamics. The results are applicable to a large class of structures such as satellites with multiple payloads and space-based manipulators