Satellite collision probability estimation using polynomial chaos expansions

This paper presents the application of polynomial chaos (PC) to estimating the probability of collision between two spacecraft. Common methods of quantifying this probability for conjunction assessment use either Monte Carlo analyses or include simplifying assumptions to improve tractability. A PC expansion, or PCE, provides a means for approximating the solution to a large set of stochastic ordinary differential equations, which includes orbit propagation. When compared to Monte Carlo methods, non-intrusive, i.e., sampling-based, PCE generation techniques may greatly reduce the number of orbit propagations required to approximate the possibly non-Gaussian, a posteriori probability density function. The presented PC-based method of computing collision probability requires no fundamental simplifying assumptions, and reduces the computation time compared to Monte Carlo. This paper considers two cases where the common conjunction assessment assumptions are no longer valid. The results indeed demonstrate a reduction in computation time when compared to Monte Carlo, and improved accuracy when compared to simplified techniques.     

COMPTEL results on the 1.809 MeV gamma-ray line from the Galactic-center region

The COMPTEL experiment on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory is designed to image celestial gamma radiation in the energy range from 0.75–30 MeV within a field of view of 1 steradian. It can locate stronger point sources with an accuracy better than 0.5° and is capable of mapping diffuse emission as well. The Galactic-center region was observed by COMPTEL for several 2-week periods in 1991/1992. These observations show evidence for 1.8 MeV line emission along the Galactic disk (attributed to radioactive ²⁶Al), extending over at least 40 degrees in longitude.     

Pion and electromagnetic contribution to dose: Comparisons of HZETRN to Monte Carlo results and ISS data

Recent work has indicated that pion production and the associated electromagnetic (EM) cascade may be an important contribution to the total astronaut exposure in space. Recent extensions to the deterministic space radiation transport code, HZETRN, allow the production and transport of pions, muons, electrons, positrons, and photons. In this paper, the extended code is compared to the Monte Carlo codes, Geant4, PHITS, and FLUKA, in slab geometries exposed to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) boundary conditions. While improvements in the HZETRN transport formalism for the new particles are needed, it is shown that reasonable agreement on dose is found at larger shielding thicknesses commonly found on the International Space Station (ISS). Finally, the extended code is compared to ISS data on a minute-by-minute basis over a seven day period in 2001. The impact of pion/EM production on exposure estimates and validation results is clearly shown. The Badhwar–O’Neill (BO) 2004 and 2010 models are used to generate the GCR boundary condition at each time-step allowing the impact of environmental model improvements on validation results to be quantified as well. It is found that the updated BO2010 model noticeably reduces overall exposure estimates from the BO2004 model, and the additional production mechanisms in HZETRN provide some compensation. It is shown that the overestimates provided by the BO2004 GCR model in previous validation studies led to deflated uncertainty estimates for environmental, physics, and transport models, and allowed an important physical interaction (π/EM) to be overlooked in model development. Despite the additional π/EM production mechanisms in HZETRN, a systematic under-prediction of total dose is observed in comparison to Monte Carlo results and measured data.     

Comparison of the transport codes HZETRN,HETC and FLUKA for a solar particle event

The protection of astronauts and instrumentation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events is one of the primary constraints associated with mission planning in low earth orbit or deep space. To help satisfy this constraint, several computational tools have been developed to analyze the effectiveness of various shielding materials and structures exposed to space radiation. These tools are now being carefully scrutinized through a systematic effort of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. In this benchmark study, the deterministic transport code HZETRN is compared to the Monte Carlo transport codes HETC-HEDS and FLUKA for a 30 g/cm² water target protected by a 20 g/cm² aluminum shield exposed to a parameterization of the February 1956 solar particle event. Neutron and proton fluences as well as dose and dose equivalent are compared at various depths in the water target. The regions of agreement and disagreement between the three codes are quantified and discussed, and recommendations for future work are given.     

Humans to Mars: a feasibility and cost-benefit analysis

Mars is a compelling astrobiological target, and a human mission would provide an opportunity to collect immense amounts of scientific data. Exploration alone, however, cannot justify the increased risk. Instead, three factors drive a human mission: economics, education, and exploration. A human mission has a unique potential to inspire the next generation of young people to enter critically needed science and engineering disciplines. A mission is economically feasible, and the research and development program put in place for a human mission would propel growth in related high-technology industries. The main hurdles are human physiological responses to 1–2 years of radiation and microgravity exposure. However, enabling technologies are sufficiently mature in these areas that they can be developed within a few decade timescale. Hence, the decision of whether or not to undertake a human mission to Mars is a political decision, and thus, educational and economic benefits are the crucial factors.     

Comptel measurements of the omnidirectional high-energy neutron flux in near-earth orbit

On four occasions, twice in 1991 (near solar maximum) and twice in 1994 (near solar minimum), one COMPTEL D1 detector module was used as an omnidirectional detector to measure the high-energy (>12.8 MeV) neutron flux near an altitude of 450 km. The Dl modules are cylindrical, with radius 13.8 cm and depth 8 cm, and are filled with liquid scintillator (NE213A). The combined flux measurements can be fit reasonably well by a product of the Mt. Washington neutron monitor rate, a linear function in the spacecraft geocenter zenith angle, and an exponential function of the vertical geomagnetic cutoff rigidity in which the coefficient of the rigidity is a linear function of the neutron monitor rate. When pointed at the nadir, the flux is consistent with that expected from the atmospheric neutron albedo alone. When pointed at the zenith the flux is reduced by a factor of about 0.54. Thus the production of secondary neutrons in the massive (16000 kg) Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory spacecraft is negligible. Rather, the mass of the spacecraft provides shielding from the earth albedo.