Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

Comparative assessment of human–Mars-mission technologies and architectures

We compare a variety of mission scenarios to assess the strengths and weaknesses of options for Mars exploration. The mission design space is modeled along two dimensions: trajectory architectures and propulsion system technologies. We examine direct, semi-direct, stop-over, semi-cycler, and cycler architectures, and we include electric propulsion, nuclear thermal rockets, methane and oxygen production on Mars, Mars water excavation, aerocapture, and reusable propulsion systems in our technology assessment. The mission sensitivity to crew size, vehicle masses, and crew travel time is also examined. Many different combinations of technologies and architectures are applied to the same Mars mission to determine which combinations provide the greatest potential reduction in the injected mass to LEO. We approximate the technology readiness level of a mission to rank development risk, but omit development cost and time calculations in our assessment. It is found that Earth–Mars semi-cyclers and cyclers require the least injected mass to LEO of any architecture and that the discovery of accessible water on Mars has the most dramatic effect on the evolution of Mars exploration.     

Flight demonstration of new thruster and green propellant technology on the PRISMA satellite

The concept of a storable liquid monopropellant blend for space applications based on ammonium dinitramide (ADN) was invented in 1997, within a co-operation between the Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) and the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI). The objective was to develop a propellant which has higher performance and is safer than hydrazine. The work has been performed under contract from the Swedish National Space Board and ESA. The progress of the development has been presented in several papers since 2000.ECAPS, a subsidiary of the Swedish Space Corporation was established in 2000 with the aim to develop and market the novel “high performance green propellant” (HPGP) technology for space applications. The new technology is based on several innovations and patents w.r.t. propellant formulation and thruster design, including a high temperature resistant catalyst and thrust chamber.The first flight demonstration of the HPGP propulsion system will be performed on PRISMA. PRISMA is an international technology demonstration program with Swedish Space Corporation as the Prime Contractor.This paper describes the performance, characteristics, design and verification of the HPGP propulsion system for PRISMA. Compatibility issues related to using a new propellant with COTS components is also discussed. The PRISMA mission includes two satellites in LEO orbit were the focus is on rendezvous and formation flying. One of the satellites will act as a “target” and the main spacecraft performs rendezvous and formation flying maneuvers, where the ECAPS HPGP propulsion system will provide delta-V capability.The PRISMA CDR was held in January 2007. Integration of the flight propulsion system is about to be finalized.The flight opportunity on PRISMA represents a unique opportunity to demonstrate the HPGP propulsion system in space, and thus take a significant step towards its use in future space applications. The launch of PRISMA scheduled to 2009.     

Ballistics, navigation, and motion control for a spacecraft during its landing on the surface of Phobos

Basic concepts and algorithms laid as foundations of the scheme of landing on the Martian moon Phobos (developed for the Phobos-Grunt project) are presented. The conditions ensuring the landing are discussed. Algorithms of onboard navigation and control are described. The equations of spacecraft motion with respect to Phobos are considered, as well as their use for correction of the spacecraft motion. The algorithm of estimation of the spacecraft’s state vector using measurements with a laser altimeter and Doppler meter of velocity and distance is presented. A system for modeling the landing with a firmware complex including a prototype of the onboard computer is described.     

Numerical simulation of circulation of the Titan’s atmosphere: Interpretation of measurements of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Huygens</Emphasis> probe

The results of numerical simulation of the general circulation in the Titan’s atmosphere at heights from 0 to 250 km are presented, obtained using a new model based on numerical solution of complete equations of motion of viscous compressible gas at the temperature distribution given by an empirical model. The model uses no hydrostatic equation and, as compared with traditional models, has higher resolution in vertical and over horizon. The results presented differ from results of other models and agree with the vertical profile of the zonal component of wind velocity measured by the Huygens spacecraft. Interpretation of this profile is given, including its main peculiarity consisting in a nonmonotonic behavior at heights from 60 to 75 km.     

Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle similitude to the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle

The Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle is the first in a series of flight test vehicles that will take the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle design from development to operational capability. Ares I–X is scheduled for a 2009 flight date, early enough in the Ares I design and development process so that data obtained from the flight can impact the design of Ares I before its Critical Design Review. Decisions on Ares I–X scope, flight test objectives, and FTV fidelity were made prior to the Ares I systems requirements being baselined. This was necessary in order to achieve a development flight test to impact the Ares I design. Differences between the Ares I–X and the Ares I configurations are artifacts of formulating this experimental project at an early stage and the natural maturation of the Ares I design process. This paper describes the similarities and differences between the Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle and the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle. Areas of comparison include the outer mold line geometry, aerosciences, trajectory, structural modes, flight control architecture, separation sequence, and relevant element differences. Most of the outer mold line differences present between Ares I and Ares I–X are minor and will not have a significant effect on overall vehicle performance. The most significant impacts are related to the geometric differences in Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle at the forward end of the stack. These physical differences will cause differences in the flow physics in these areas. Even with these differences, the Ares I–X flight test is poised to meet all five primary objectives and six secondary objectives. Knowledge of what the Ares I–X flight test will provide in similitude to Ares I—as well as what the test will not provide—is important in the continued execution of the Ares I–X mission leading to its flight and the continued design and development of Ares I.     

Autonomous navigation of formation flying spacecrafts in deep space exploration and communication by hybrid navigation utilizing neural network filter

Autonomous navigation of spacecrafts is a difficult task, however, which is a must in future deep space exploration. With multiple spacecrafts flying in space, this aim can be achieved by formation flying spacecraft (FFS) utilizing inverse time difference of arrival (ITDOA) and inverse difference Doppler (IDD) methods, which can locate the position of earth-station from one-way uplink signals in the FFS coordinate, and by way of conversion of coordinates, the position of FFS is achieved in earth-centered earth-fixed (ECEF) coordinate. The ability of neural network (NN) filter in navigation to extract position of spacecrafts from random measuring noise of signal arrival time and Doppler shift is studied with different radius of FFS and surveying parameters. The NN filter used by spacecraft group is new way of unidirectional autonomous navigation and is of high precision of hybrid navigation.     

Is the presence of oxygen on an exoplanet a reliable biosignature?

We revisit the validity of the presence of O(2) or O(3) in the atmosphere of a rocky planet as being a biosignature. Up to now, the false positive that has been identified applies to a planet during a hot greenhouse runaway, which is restricted to planets outside the habitable zone (HZ) of the star that are closer to the star. In this paper, we explore a new possibility based on abiotic photogeneration of O(2) at the surface of a planet that could occur inside the HZ. The search for such a process is an active field of laboratory investigation that has resulted from an ongoing interest in finding efficient systems with the capacity to harvest solar energy on Earth. Although such a process is energetically viable, we find it to be a very unlikely explanation for the observation of O(2) or O(3) in the atmosphere of a telluric exoplanet in the HZ. It requires an efficient photocatalyst to be present and abundant under natural planetary conditions, which appears unlikely according to our discussion of known mineral photochemical processes. In contrast, a biological system that synthesizes its constituents from abundant raw materials and energy has the inherent adaptation advantage to become widespread and dominant (Darwinist argument). Thus, O(2) appears to continue to be a good biosignature.     

一种基于不对称再入体的制导与控制方法研究

研究一种不对称再入体的再入机动控制方法.不对称再入体气动外形简单,它的升力大小一般不可控,但可通过滚动控制调整升力的方向实现机动飞行.为实现不对称再入体的精确制导,本文研究了一种滚速可调的“滚转制导律”,通过调整制导系数,可以兼顾再入体滚动角速度和落点精度的要求;设计了不对称再人体滚动通道的喷流控制方案,给出了滚动姿态...