Analysis of the ionosphere/plasmasphere electron content variability during strong geomagnetic storm

The ionosphere/plasmasphere electron content (PEC) variations during strong geomagnetic storms in November 2004 were estimated by combining of mid-latitude Kharkov incoherent scatter radar observations and GPS TEC data derived from global TEC maps. The comparison between two independent measurements was performed by analysis of the height-temporal distribution for specific location corresponding to the mid-latitudes of Europe. The percentage contribution of PEC to GPS TEC indicated the clear dependence from the time with maximal values (more than 70%) during night-time. During day-time the lesser values (30–45%) were observed for quiet geomagnetic conditions and rather high values of the PEC contribution to GPS TEC (up to 90%) were observed during strong negative storm. These changes can be explained by the competing effects of electric fields and winds, which tend to raise the layer to the region with lower loss rate and movement of the ionospheric plasma to the plasmasphere.     

An improved approach for rainfall estimation over Indian summer monsoon region using Kalpana-1 data

In this paper, an improved Kalpana-1 infrared (IR) based rainfall estimation algorithm, specific to Indian summer monsoon region is presented. This algorithm comprises of two parts: (i) development of Kalpana-1 IR based rainfall estimation algorithm with improvement for orographic warm rain underestimation generally suffered by IR based rainfall estimation methods and (ii) cooling index to take care of the growth and decay of clouds and thereby improving the precipitation estimation.     

Determination of land surface temperature using precipitable water based Split-Window and Artificial Neural Network in Turkey

Land surface temperature (LST) calculation utilizing satellite thermal images is very difficult due to the great temporal variance of atmospheric water vapor in the atmosphere which strongly affects the thermal radiance incoming to satellite sensors. In this study, Split-Window (SW) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) methods were utilized for prediction of LST using precipitable water for Turkey. Coll 94 Split-Window algorithm was modified using regional precipitable water values estimated from upper-air Radiosond observations for the years 1990–2007 and Local Split-Window (LSW) algorithms were generated for the study area. Using local algorithms and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data, monthly mean daily sum LST values were calculated. In RBF method latitude, longitude, altitude, surface emissivity, sun shine duration and precipitable water values were used as input variables of the structure. Correlation coefficients between estimated and measured LST values were obtained as 99.23% (for RBF) and 94.48% (for LSW) at 00:00 UTC and 92.77% (for RBF) and 89.98% (for LSW) at 12:00 UTC. These meaningful statistical results suggest that RBF and LSW methods could be used for LST calculation.     

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

Homologous flare–CME events and their metric type II radio burst association

Active region NOAA 11158 produced many flares during its disk passage. At least two of these flares can be considered as homologous: the C6.6 flare at 06:51 UT and C9.4 flare at 12:41 UT on February 14, 2011. Both flares occurred at the same location (eastern edge of the active region) and have a similar decay of the GOES soft X-ray light curve. The associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were slow (334 and 337 km/s) and of similar apparent widths (43° and 44°), but they had different radio signatures. The second event was associated with a metric type II burst while the first one was not. The COR1 coronagraphs on board the STEREO spacecraft clearly show that the second CME propagated into the preceding CME that occurred 50 min before. These observations suggest that CME–CME interaction might be a key process in exciting the type II radio emission by slow CMEs.     

Investigation of GPS-TEC measurements using ANN method indicating seismo-ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Chile (Mw = 8.2) earthquake of 01 April 2014

In 94 km NW of Iquique in Chile (19.610°S, 70.776°W) a powerful earthquake of M_w = 8.2 took place at 23:46:47 UTC (20:46:47 LT) on April 01, 2014. Using GPS-TEC (Total Electron Content) measurements, potential unusual variations around the time and location of the Chile earthquake have been detected based on the median and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods. The indices D_st, K_p, A_p and F10.7 were used to distinguish pre-earthquake anomalies from the other anomalies related to the solar-geomagnetic activities. Using the median method, striking anomalies in time series of TEC data are observed 4 days before the earthquake at 14:00 and 16:00 UTC. The ANN method detected a number of anomalies, 4 (02:00 and 16:00 UTC) and 13 (24:00 UTC) days preceding the earthquake. The results indicate that the ANN method due to its capability of non linear learning is quite promising and deserves serious attention as a robust predictor tool for seismo-ionospheric anomalies detection.     

On the large-scale structure of the tail current as measured by THEMIS

The magnetic field structure and the spatial characteristics of the large-scale currents in the magnetospheric tail were studied during quiet and moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions in 2009. The magnetic field of the currents other than the tail current was calculated in terms of a paraboloid model of the Earth’s magnetosphere, A2000, and was subtracted from measurements. It was found on the base of obtained tail current magnetic field radial distribution that the inner edge of the tail current sheet is located in the night side magnetosphere, at distances of about 10 R_E and of about 7 R_E during quiet and disturbed periods respectively. During the disturbance of February 14, 2009 (Dst_min ∼ −35 nT), the B_x and the B_z component of the tail current magnetic field near its inner edge were about 60 nT, and −60 nT that means that strong cross-tail current have been developed. The tail current parameters at different time moments during February 14, 2009 have been estimated. Solar wind conditions during this event were consistent with those during moderate magnetic storms with minimum Dst of about −100 nT. However, the magnetospheric current systems (magnetopause and cross-tail currents) were located at larger geocentric distances than typical during the 2009 extremely quiet epoch and did not provide the expected Dst magnitude. Very small disturbance on the Earth’s surface was detected consistent with an “inflated” magnetosphere.     

Assessment of precision in ionospheric electron density profiles retrieved by GPS radio occultations

The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) is a six satellite radio occultation mission that was launched in April 2006. The close proximity of these satellites during some months after launch provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the precision of Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) retrievals of ionospheric electron density from nearly collocated and simultaneous observations. RO data from 30 consecutive days during July and August 2006 are divided into ten groups in terms of daytime or nighttime and latitude. In all cases, the best precision values (about 1%) are found at the F peak height and they slightly degrade upwards. For all daytime groups, it is seen that electron density profiles above about 120 km height exhibit a substantial improvement in precision. Nighttime groups are rather diverse: in particular, the precision becomes better than 10% above different levels between 120 and 200 km height. Our overall results show that up to 100–200 km (depending on each group), the uncertainty associated with the precision is in the order of the measured electron density values. Even worse, the retrieved values tend sometimes to be negative. Although we cannot rely directly on electron density values at these altitudes, the shape of the profiles could be indicative of some ionospheric features (e.g. waves and sporadic E layers). Above 200 km, the profiles of precision are qualitatively quite independent from daytime or latitude. From all the nearly collocated pairs studied, only 49 exhibited a difference between line of sight angles of both RO at the F peak height larger than 10°. After analyzing them we find no clear indications of a significant representativeness error in electron density profiles due to the spherical assumption above 120 km height. Differences in precision between setting and rising GPS RO may be attributed to the modification of the processing algorithms applied to rising cases during the initial period of the COSMIC mission.     

对流层顶变化对上对流层/下平流层臭氧分布的影响

上对流层和下平流层(UT／LS)，位于8-25km高度之间，是大气中一个很特殊的区域．大部分的臭氧分布在下平流层，在下平流层臭氧的含量发生一个很小的变化，就会对气候和地面的紫外辐射产生很大的影响．而作为气象参数的对流层顶，是充分混合、缺乏臭氧的上对流层和层结稳定、臭氧丰富的下平流层之间的边界或过渡层，其变化对臭氧总量和分布有直接和明显的影响．本文使用二维模式模拟研究对流层顶变化对臭氧在UT／LS分布的影响．模拟结果表明对流层顶的季节变化对UT/LS的臭氧分布有明显的影响，臭氧的局地变化可以超过10％在冬季北半球中纬度对流层顶高度升高1km时，模式结果表明对臭氧分布的影响比较显著，局地变化可超过6％，但是对臭氧总量的影响较小，变化不超过5DU，小于观测资料统计分析的结果。