Diurnal and seasonal variations in long-term changes in the E-layer critical frequency

Long-term changes in the E-layer critical frequency, foE, at three stations of the European region (Juliusruh, Slough and Rome) and also at Moscow and Wakkanai stations are analyzed by the method developed by the authors and described in detail in the previous papers. It is found that Juliusruh and Slough stations demonstrate a well-pronounced change in foE (a trend) during two previous decades. At the same time, the same features of the behavior of the aforementioned trend k(foE) are obtained. The trend is positive and negative in the morning and evening hours, respectively. Similar diurnal behavior of k(foE) is found also for Moscow station but with lower absolute values of the trends. A well-pronounced seasonal behavior of k(foE) is detected at Juliusruh and Slough: the trend is minimal and maximal in the summer period and at the end of fall—beginning of winter, respectively. The maximal amplitude in the morning hours reaches +0.04?MHz per year, whereas the minimal amplitude in evening hours is ?0.06?MHz per year. No systematic changes exceeding by the magnitude 0.01?MHz per year are found for Rome and Wakkanai stations. It is assumed that the observed trends are related to changes (trends) in the meridional wind bringing NO molecules from the auroral oval to lower latitudes.     

OSIRIS-REx low-velocity particles during outbound cruise

We analyzed high-angular rate streaks first recorded by OSIRIS-REx’s MapCam during a 2017 search for Earth Trojan asteroids. We interpret them as water-ice particles that translated across the imager’s field of view, originating from the spacecraft itself. Their translation velocities approximated 0.1–1?m/s based on reasonable conclusions about their range. Pursuing several lines of investigation to seek a coherent hypothesis, we conclude that the episodic releases of the water ice particles are associated with spacecraft attitudes that resulted in solar illumination of previously shadowed regions. This correlation suggests that the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft itself possesses micro-climatic zones consisting of hot regions and cold traps that may temporarily potentially pass volatiles back and forth before losing most of them.     

Mechanism of error propagation from the subdaily Universal Time model into the celestial pole offsets estimated by VLBI

Within the analysis of space geodetic observations, errors of the applied subdaily Earth rotation model can induce systematic effects in different estimated parameters. In this paper, we focus on the impact of the subdaily Universal Time (UT1) model on the celestial pole offsets (CPO) estimated from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations. We provide a mechanism that describes the error propagation from the subdaily UT1 into the daily CPO.In typical 24-h VLBI sessions the observed quasars are well distributed over the sky. But the observations, if looked at from the Earth-fixed frame, are not homogeneously distributed. The amount of observations performed in different terrestrial directions shows an irregularity which can be roughly compared to the case where the observations are collected in only one Earth-fixed direction. This peculiarity leads to artefacts in VLBI solutions, producing a correlation between the subdaily variations in UT1 and the position of the celestial pole. As a result errors in diurnal terms of the subdaily UT1 model are partly compensated by the estimated CPO. We compute for each 24-h VLBI session from 1990 until 2011 the theoretical response of the CPO to an error in the subdaily UT1 by setting up a least-squares adjustment model and using as input the coordinates of the observed quasars and observation epochs. Then real observed response of the estimated CPO derived from the VLBI session solutions is compared to the predicted one. A very good agreement between the CPO values estimated from VLBI and the predicted values was achieved. The presented model of error propagation from the subdaily UT1 into the daily CPO allows to predict and explain the behaviour of CPO estimates of VLBI solutions computed with different subdaily Earth rotation models, what can be helpful for testing the accuracy of different subdaily tidal models.     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.     

Evaluation and improvement of coastal GNSS reflectometry sea level variations from existing GNSS stations in Taiwan

Global sea level rise due to an increasingly warmer climate has begun to induce hazards, adversely affecting the lives and properties of people residing in low-lying coastal regions and islands. Therefore, it is important to monitor and understand variations in coastal sea level covering offshore regions. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) have been successfully used to robustly derive sea level heights (SLHs). In Taiwan, there are a number of continuously operating GNSS stations, not originally installed for sea level monitoring. They were established in harbors or near coastal regions for monitoring land motion. This study utilizes existing SNR data from three GNSS stations (Kaohsiung, Suao, and TaiCOAST) in Taiwan to compute SLHs with two methods, namely, Lomb–Scargle Periodogram (LSP)-only, and LSP aided with tidal harmonic analysis developed in this study. The results of both methods are compared with co-located or nearby tide gauge records. Due to the poor quality of SNR data, the worst accuracy of SLHs derived from traditional LSP-only method exceeds 1?m at the TaiCOAST station. With our procedure, the standard deviations (STDs) of difference between GNSS-derived SLHs and tide gauge records in Kaohsiung and Suao stations decreased to 10?cm and the results show excellent agreement with tide gauge derived relative sea level records, with STD of differences of 7?cm and correlation coefficient of 0.96. In addition, the absolute GNSS-R sea level trend in Kaohsiung during 2006–2011 agrees well with that derived from satellite altimetry. We conclude that the coastal GNSS stations in Taiwan have the potential of monitoring absolute coastal sea level change accurately when our proposed methodology is used.     

Degradation monitoring in Silvo-pastoral systems: A case study of the Mediterranean region of Turkey

To identify policies that will promote positive effects and mitigate negative ones of grazing is a major challenge in the Silvo-pastoral system. This paper presents the role of examining land-cover change trajectories by remote sensing imagery in grazing policy monitoring. The study was conducted for Duzlercami forest ecosystem located in the Mediterranean geographical region of Turkey and administrated by the General Directorate of Forestry (GDF) of the Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs. Time series land-cover datasets from Landsat images between 1988 and 2016 were collected and classified. To link the conversions among trajectories and grazing policy, class level landscape metrics derived from the classified images were used. To validate the approach, yearly grazing-plans managed by GDF and populations of livestock were used. Results of this research have indicated that even though there is a yearly grazing plan, overgrazing can happen on the pilot site, and it can be easily identified by the destruction of woody vegetation. The notable correlation (r²?=?0.89) between degraded woody vegetation and cattle population has occurred in the last 30?years in the landscape, and Landsat imagery can effectively support the grazing policy mapping and monitoring.     

Correlation of IRTAM and FPMU data confirming the application of IRTAM to support ISS Program safety

A “Real-Time” plasma hazard assessment process was developed to support International Space Station (ISS) Program real-time decision-making providing solar array constraint relief information for Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) planning and operations. This process incorporates real-time ionospheric conditions, ISS solar arrays’ orientation, ISS flight attitude, and where the EVA will be performed on the ISS. This assessment requires real-time data that is presently provided by the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) which measures the ISS floating potential (FP), along with ionospheric electron number density (Ne) and electron temperature (Te), in order to determine the present ISS environment. Once the present environment conditions are correlated with International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) values, IRI is used to forecast what the environment could become in the event of a severe geomagnetic storm. If the FPMU should fail, the Space Environments team needs another source of data which is utilized to support a short-term forecast for EVAs. The IRI Real-Time Assimilative Mapping (IRTAM) model is an ionospheric model that uses real-time measurements from a large network of digisondes to produce foF2 and hmF2 global maps in 15?min cadence. The Boeing Space Environments team has used the IRI coefficients produced in IRTAM to calculate the Ne along the ISS orbital track. The results of the IRTAM model have been compared to FPMU measurements and show excellent agreement. IRTAM has been identified as the FPMU back-up system that will be used to support the ISS Program if the FPMU should fail.     

Investigating the Coronal Mass Ejections associated with DH type-II radio bursts and solar flares during the ascending phase of the solar cycle 24

We studied a set of 74 CMEs, with shedding the light on the halo-CMEs (HCMEs), that are associated with decametric – hectometric (DH) type-II radio bursts (1–16?MHz) and solar flares during the period 2008–2014. The events were classified into 3 groups (disk, intermediate, and limb events) based on their longitudinal distribution.We found that the events are mostly distributed around 15.32° and 15.97° at the northern and southern solar hemispheres, respectively. We found that there is a clear dependence between the longitude and the CME’s width, speed, acceleration, mass, and kinetic energy. For the CMEs’ widths, most of the events were HCMEs (～62%), while the partial HCMEs comprised ～35% and the rest of events were CMEs with widths less than 120°. For the CMEs’ speeds, masses, and kinetic energies, the mean values showed a direct proportionality with the longitude, in which the limb events had the highest speeds, the largest masses, and the highest kinetic energies. The mean peak flux of the solar flares for different longitudes was comparable, but the disk flares were more energetic. The intermediate flares were considered as gradual flares since they tended to last longer, while the limb flares were considered as impulsive flares since they tended to last shorter.A weak correlation (R?=?0.32) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the duration of the associated flares has been noticed, while there was a good correlation (R?=?0.76) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the peak flux of the associated flares. We found a fair correlation (R?=?0.58) between the kinetic energy of the CMEs and the duration of the associated DH type-II radio bursts.     

Assessment study of ionosphere correction model using single- and multi-shell algorithms approach over sub-Saharan African region

It is a known fact that ionosphere is the largest and the least predictable among the sources of error limiting the reliability and accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and its regional augmentation systems like Satellite Based Augmentation System (SBAS) in a safety-of-life application. The situation becomes worse in the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) region, where the daytime ionization distribution is modified by the fountain effect that develops a crest of electron density at around ±15° to ±20° of the magnetic equator and a trough at the magnetic equator during the local noon hours. Related to this phenomenon is the appearance of ionosphere irregularities and plasma bubbles after local sunset. These may degrade further the quality of service obtained from the GNSS/SBAS system of the said periods. Considering the present operational augmentation systems, the accuracy and integrity of the ionosphere corrections estimate decreases as the level of disturbances increases. In order to provide a correct ionosphere correction to the user of GNSS operating in African EIA region and meet the integrity requirements, a certified ionosphere correction model that accurately characterizes EIA gradient with the full capacity to over-bound the residual error will be needed. An irregularities detector and a decorrelation adaptor are essential in an algorithm usable for African sub-Saharan SBAS operation. The algorithm should be able to cater to the equatorial plasma vertical drifts, diurnal and seasonal variability of the ionosphere electron density and also should take into account the large spatial and temporal gradients in the region. This study presents the assessment of the ionosphere threat model with single and multi-layer algorithm, using modified planar fit and Kriging approaches.