Space weather: its effects and predictability

Terrestrial technology is now, and increasingly, sensitive to space weather. Most space weather is caused by solar storms and the resulting changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. The Sun as the driver of space weather is under intense observation but remains to be adequately modelled. Recent spacecraft measurements are greatly improving models of solar activity, the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, and models of the radiation belts. In-situ data updates the basic magnetospheric model to provide specific details of high-energy electron flux at satellite orbits. Shock wave effects at the magnetopause can also be coarsely predicted. However, the specific geomagnetic effects at ground level depend on the calculation of magnetic and electric fields and further improvements are needed. New work on physical models is showing promise of raising geomagnetic and ionospheric predictability above the synoptic climatological level. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Formation and Processing of Organics in the Early Solar System

Until pristine samples can be returned from cometary nuclei, primitive meteorites represent our best source of information about organic chemistry in the early solar system. However, this material has been affected by secondary processing on asteroidal parent bodies which probably did not affect the material now present in cometary nuclei. Production of meteoritic organic matter apparently involved the following sequence of events: Molecule formation by a variety of reaction pathways in dense interstellar clouds; Condensation of those molecules onto refractory interstellar grains; Irradiation of organic-rich interstellar-grain mantles producing a range of molecular fragments and free radicals; Inclusion of those interstellar grains into the protosolar nebula with probable heating of at least some grain mantles during passage through the shock wave bounding the solar accretion disc; Agglomeration of residual interstellar grains and locally produced nebular condensates into asteroid-sized planetesimals; Heating of planetesimals by decay of extinct radionuclides; Melting of ice to produce liquid water within asteroidal bodies; Reaction of interstellar molecules, fragments and radicals with each other and with the aqueous environment, possibly catalysed by mineral grains; Loss of water and other volatiles to space yielding a partially hydrated lithology containing a complex suite of organic molecules; Heating of some of this organic matter to generate a kerogen-like complex; Mixing of heated and unheated material to yield the meteoritic material now observed. Properties of meteoritic organic matter believed to be consistent with this scenario include: Systematic decrease of abundance with increasing C number in homologous series of characterisable molecules; Complete structural diversity within homologous series; Predominance of branched-chain isomers; Considerable isotopic variability among characterisable molecules and within kerogen-like material; Substantial deuterium enrichment in all organic fractions; Some fractions significantly enriched in nitrogen-15; Modest excesses of L-enantiomers in some racemisation-resistant molecules but no general enantiomeric preference. Despite much speculation about the possible role of Fischer-Tropsch catalytic hydrogenation of CO in production of organic molecules in the solar nebula, no convincing evidence for such material has been found in meteorites. A similarity between some meteoritic organics and those produced by Miller-Urey discharge synthesis may reflect involvement of common intermediates rather than the operation of electric discharges in the early solar system. Meteoritic organic matter constitutes a useful, but not exact, guide to what we shall find with in situ analytical and sample-return missions to cometary nuclei. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mars Global Surveyor Observations of Solar Wind Magnetic Field Draping Around Mars

We examine the magnetic field in the martian magnetosheath due to solar wind draping. Mars Global Surveyor provided 3-D vector magnetic field measurements at a large range of altitudes, local times, and solar zenith angles as the spacecraft orbit evolved. We choose orbits with very clean signatures of draping to establish the nominal morphology of the magnetic field lines at local times of near-subsolar and near-terminator. Next, using a compilation of data from Mars Global Surveyor, we determine the average magnetic field morphology in the martian magnetosheath due to the solar wind interaction. The topology of the field is as expected from previous observations and predictions. The magnetic field magnitude peaks at low altitude and noon magnetic local time and decreases away from that point. The magnetic field has an inclination from the local horizontal of 5.6° on average in the dayside magnetosheath and 12.5° on the nightside. The inclination angle is closest to zero at noon magnetic local time and low altitude. It increases both upward and to later local times. The magnetic field in the induced magnetotail flares out from the Mars—Sun direction by 21°. Finally, we compare the observations to gasdynamic model predictions and find that the shocked solar wind flow in the martian magnetosheath can be treated as a gasdynamic flow with the magnetic pileup boundary as the inner boundary to the flow.     

New Horizons: Anticipated Scientific Investigations at the Pluto System

The New Horizons spacecraft will achieve a wide range of measurement objectives at the Pluto system, including color and panchromatic maps, 1.25–2.50 micron spectral images for studying surface compositions, and measurements of Pluto’s atmosphere (temperatures, composition, hazes, and the escape rate). Additional measurement objectives include topography, surface temperatures, and the solar wind interaction. The fulfillment of these measurement objectives will broaden our understanding of the Pluto system, such as the origin of the Pluto system, the processes operating on the surface, the volatile transport cycle, and the energetics and chemistry of the atmosphere. The mission, payload, and strawman observing sequences have been designed to achieve the NASA-specified measurement objectives and maximize the science return. The planned observations at the Pluto system will extend our knowledge of other objects formed by giant impact (such as the Earth–moon), other objects formed in the outer solar system (such as comets and other icy dwarf planets), other bodies with surfaces in vapor-pressure equilibrium (such as Triton and Mars), and other bodies with N₂:CH₄ atmospheres (such as Titan, Triton, and the early Earth).     

MESSENGER: Exploring Mercury’s Magnetosphere

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) mission to Mercury offers our first opportunity to explore this planet’s miniature magnetosphere since the brief flybys of Mariner 10. Mercury’s magnetosphere is unique in many respects. The magnetosphere of Mercury is among the smallest in the solar system; its magnetic field typically stands off the solar wind only ∼1000 to 2000 km above the surface. For this reason there are no closed drift paths for energetic particles and, hence, no radiation belts. Magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause may erode the subsolar magnetosphere, allowing solar wind ions to impact directly the regolith. Inductive currents in Mercury’s interior may act to modify the solar wind interaction by resisting changes due to solar wind pressure variations. Indeed, observations of these induction effects may be an important source of information on the state of Mercury’s interior. In addition, Mercury’s magnetosphere is the only one with its defining magnetic flux tubes rooted beneath the solid surface as opposed to an atmosphere with a conductive ionospheric layer. This lack of an ionosphere is probably the underlying reason for the brevity of the very intense, but short-lived, ∼1–2 min, substorm-like energetic particle events observed by Mariner 10 during its first traversal of Mercury’s magnetic tail. Because of Mercury’s proximity to the sun, 0.3–0.5 AU, this magnetosphere experiences the most extreme driving forces in the solar system. All of these factors are expected to produce complicated interactions involving the exchange and recycling of neutrals and ions among the solar wind, magnetosphere, and regolith. The electrodynamics of Mercury’s magnetosphere are expected to be equally complex, with strong forcing by the solar wind, magnetic reconnection, and pick-up of planetary ions all playing roles in the generation of field-aligned electric currents. However, these field-aligned currents do not close in an ionosphere, but in some other manner. In addition to the insights into magnetospheric physics offered by study of the solar wind–Mercury system, quantitative specification of the “external” magnetic field generated by magnetospheric currents is necessary for accurate determination of the strength and multi-polar decomposition of Mercury’s intrinsic magnetic field. MESSENGER’s highly capable instrumentation and broad orbital coverage will greatly advance our understanding of both the origin of Mercury’s magnetic field and the acceleration of charged particles in small magnetospheres. In this article, we review what is known about Mercury’s magnetosphere and describe the MESSENGER science team’s strategy for obtaining answers to the outstanding science questions surrounding the interaction of the solar wind with Mercury and its small, but dynamic, magnetosphere.     

MESSENGER Mission Overview

The MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft, launched on August 3, 2004, is nearing the halfway point on its voyage to become the first probe to orbit the planet Mercury. The mission, spacecraft, and payload are designed to answer six fundamental questions regarding the innermost planet: (1) What planetary formational processes led to Mercury’s high ratio of metal to silicate? (2) What is the geological history of Mercury? (3) What are the nature and origin of Mercury’s magnetic field? (4) What are the structure and state of Mercury’s core? (5) What are the radar-reflective materials at Mercury’s poles? (6) What are the important volatile species and their sources and sinks near Mercury? The mission has focused to date on commissioning the spacecraft and science payload as well as planning for flyby and orbital operations. The second Venus flyby (June 2007) will complete final rehearsals for the Mercury flyby operations in January and October 2008 and September 2009. Those flybys will provide opportunities to image the hemisphere of the planet not seen by Mariner 10, obtain high-resolution spectral observations with which to map surface mineralogy and assay the exosphere, and carry out an exploration of the magnetic field and energetic particle distribution in the near-Mercury environment. The orbital phase, beginning on March 18, 2011, is a one-year-long, near-polar-orbital observational campaign that will address all mission goals. The orbital phase will complete global imaging, yield detailed surface compositional and topographic data over the northern hemisphere, determine the geometry of Mercury’s internal magnetic field and magnetosphere, ascertain the radius and physical state of Mercury’s outer core, assess the nature of Mercury’s polar deposits, and inventory exospheric neutrals and magnetospheric charged particle species over a range of dynamic conditions. Answering the questions that have guided the MESSENGER mission will expand our understanding of the formation and evolution of the terrestrial planets as a family.     

Collision risk-capacity tradeoff analysis of an en-route corridor model

Flow corridors are a new class of trajectory-based airspace which derives from the next generation air transportation system concept of operations. Reducing the airspace complexity and increasing the capacity are the main purposes of the en-route corridor. This paper analyzes the collision risk-capacity tradeoff using a combined discrete–continuous simulation method. A basic two-dimensional en-route flow corridor with performance rules is designed as the operational environment. A second-order system is established by combining the point mass model and the proportional derivative controller together to simulate the self-separation operations of the aircrafts in the corridor and the operation performance parameters from the User Manual for the Base of Aircraft Data are used in this research in order to improve the reliability. Simulation results indicate that the aircrafts can self-separate from each other efficiently by adjusting their velocities,and rationally setting the values of some variables can improve the rate and stability of the corridor with low risks of loss of separation.     

Imaging Plasma Density Structures in the Soft X-Rays Generated by Solar Wind Charge Exchange with Neutrals

Both heliophysics and planetary physics seek to understand the complex nature of the solar wind’s interaction with solar system obstacles like Earth’s magnetosphere, the ionospheres of Venus and Mars, and comets. Studies with this objective are frequently conducted with the help of single or multipoint in situ electromagnetic field and particle observations, guided by the predictions of both local and global numerical simulations, and placed in context by observations from far and extreme ultraviolet (FUV, EUV), hard X-ray, and energetic neutral atom imagers (ENA). Each proposed interaction mechanism (e.g., steady or transient magnetic reconnection, local or global magnetic reconnection, ion pick-up, or the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability) generates diagnostic plasma density structures. The significance of each mechanism to the overall interaction (as measured in terms of atmospheric/ionospheric loss at comets, Venus, and Mars or global magnetospheric/ionospheric convection at Earth) remains to be determined but can be evaluated on the basis of how often the density signatures that it generates are observed as a function of solar wind conditions. This paper reviews efforts to image the diagnostic plasma density structures in the soft (low energy, 0.1–2.0 keV) X-rays produced when high charge state solar wind ions exchange electrons with the exospheric neutrals surrounding solar system obstacles.The introduction notes that theory, local, and global simulations predict the characteristics of plasma boundaries such the bow shock and magnetopause (including location, density gradient, and motion) and regions such as the magnetosheath (including density and width) as a function of location, solar wind conditions, and the particular mechanism operating. In situ measurements confirm the existence of time- and spatial-dependent plasma density structures like the bow shock, magnetosheath, and magnetopause/ionopause at Venus, Mars, comets, and the Earth. However, in situ measurements rarely suffice to determine the global extent of these density structures or their global variation as a function of solar wind conditions, except in the form of empirical studies based on observations from many different times and solar wind conditions. Remote sensing observations provide global information about auroral ovals (FUV and hard X-ray), the terrestrial plasmasphere (EUV), and the terrestrial ring current (ENA). ENA instruments with low energy thresholds (\(\sim1~\mbox{keV}\)) have recently been used to obtain important information concerning the magnetosheaths of Venus, Mars, and the Earth. Recent technological developments make these magnetosheaths valuable potential targets for high-cadence wide-field-of-view soft X-ray imagers.Section 2 describes proposed dayside interaction mechanisms, including reconnection, the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, and other processes in greater detail with an emphasis on the plasma density structures that they generate. It focuses upon the questions that remain as yet unanswered, such as the significance of each proposed interaction mode, which can be determined from its occurrence pattern as a function of location and solar wind conditions. Section 3 outlines the physics underlying the charge exchange generation of soft X-rays. Section 4 lists the background sources (helium focusing cone, planetary, and cosmic) of soft X-rays from which the charge exchange emissions generated by solar wind exchange must be distinguished. With the help of simulations employing state-of-the-art magnetohydrodynamic models for the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction, models for Earth’s exosphere, and knowledge concerning these background emissions, Sect. 5 demonstrates that boundaries and regions such as the bow shock, magnetosheath, magnetopause, and cusps can readily be identified in images of charge exchange emissions. Section 6 reviews observations by (generally narrow) field of view (FOV) astrophysical telescopes that confirm the presence of these emissions at the intensities predicted by the simulations. Section 7 describes the design of a notional wide FOV “lobster-eye” telescope capable of imaging the global interactions and shows how it might be used to extract information concerning the global interaction of the solar wind with solar system obstacles. The conclusion outlines prospects for missions employing such wide FOV imagers.     

Mars Phobos and Deimos Survey (M-PADS) – A martian Moons orbiter and Phobos lander

We describe a Mars ‘Micro Mission’ for detailed study of the martian satellites Phobos and Deimos. The mission involves two ∼330 kg spacecraft equipped with solar electric propulsion to reach Mars orbit. The two spacecraft are stacked for launch: an orbiter for remote investigation of the moons and in situ studies of their environment in Mars orbit, and another carrying a lander for in situ measurements on the surface of Phobos (or alternatively Deimos). Phobos and Deimos remain only partially studied, and Deimos less well than Phobos. Mars has almost always been the primary mission objective, while the more dedicated Phobos project (1988–89) failed to realise its full potential. Many questions remain concerning the moons’ origins, evolution, physical nature and composition. Current missions, such as Mars Express, are extending our knowledge of Phobos in some areas but largely neglect Deimos. The objectives of M-PADS focus on: origins and evolution, interactions with Mars, volatiles and interiors, surface features, and differences. The consequent measurement requirements imply both landed and remote sensing payloads. M-PADS is expected to accommodate a 60 kg orbital payload and a 16 kg lander payload. M-PADS resulted from a BNSC-funded study carried out in 2003 to define candidate Mars Micro Mission concepts for ESA’s Aurora programme.