An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle

The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20–24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.     

Stochastic processes for line shapes and intensities

Stochastic processes provide flexible and fast calculations for modeling dynamical interactions between an atom and charged particles. We use a stochastic renewal process for the plasma microfield being the cause of Stark broadening. The accuracy and improvement possibilities of Lyman profiles calculations with a renewal process are analyzed by comparing to ab initio simulations for ion broadening only. Stochastic processes may also be applied to out of equilibrium plasmas. We present our first results for the effect of Langmuir waves on a line broadened by electrons only, and for the changes of atomic populations submitted to strong temperature fluctuations.     

The Big Pine Creek watershed and climate change: A trend analysis of Landsat surface reflectance and PRISM datasets over the last 3 decades

Recent variations in normal meteorological conditions indicate the earth’s climate is changing in ways that may impact delicate ecological balances in sensitive regions. Identifying how those changes are affecting the biosphere is essential if we are going to be able to adapt to those changes and to potentially mitigate their harmful consequences. This paper presents a time series study of an alpine ecosystem in the Big Pine Creek watershed in California’s Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain’s. Raw Landsat data covering the years 1984 through 2011 is converted to observed surface reflectance and analyzed for trends that would indicate a change in the ecosystem. We found that over the time period of the study, observed surface reflectance shows a general decline across the spectrum while our analysis of environmental data demonstrates statistically significant increases in temperatures. While declining reflectance in the visible and short wave bands are indicators of increased surface cover, the fact that the IR band also shows declines is consistent with a decline in tree density. This study provides a useful insight into the ecological response of the Big Pine Creek watershed to recent climate change. These findings suggest that alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to increasing temperatures. If these results are replicated in other alpine watersheds it will demonstrate that the biosphere is already showing the effects of a warmer environment.     

Analysis and pre-development of an imaging spectrometer for in-situ cometary soil analysis on-board the esa rosetta mission

The CIVA-M instrument, a highly integrated infrared/visible microscope for the Rosetta mission (ESA — 2003) is presented. It will enable scientists to study in great detail the composition of the Wirtanen Comet: minerals, organic compounds and ices. A monochromator will illuminate a cometary sample, drilled from the comet sub-surface (≈40cm). An infrared detector will give an image of the sample for each wavelength, from 1 to 4μm with a spectral resolution of 6nm and a spatial resolution of 50 μm. In order to analyze accurately spectra a signal to noise ratio of 50 is needed (for ALBEDO = 0.04). We will use a 128×128 elements photovoltaic mercury cadmium telluride bi-dimensional array working at intermediate temperature (110K to 150K), from the French company SOFRADIR. At such relatively high temperature the critical parameter is the dark current: it limits the exposure time, preventing a high signal to noise ratio. I am in charge of the electronic board, which is the interface between the detector and the on-board processor. Some preliminary results obtained with this board, on a test detector, are then discussed.     

TC-1和Geotail对亚暴过程中近地等离子体片磁扰动的联合观测

以2004年9月28日02:53:20 UT的亚暴为例, 通过TC-1在磁尾约12.5 R_e 和Geotail卫星在近地磁尾等离子体片约8～9 R_e的联合观测, 研究亚暴触发过程中近地磁尾等离子体片中等离子体波动特征. 结果表明, 亚暴触发区是近地磁尾中心等离子体片中较小的一个区域, 在亚暴触发区中低混杂不稳定性在近地磁尾等离子体片中存在, 准垂直传播的低混杂波发生在亚暴触发过程中, 而亚暴触发过程中近地磁尾等离子体片外边界区内的磁场偶极化信号和扰动都非常微弱. 在亚暴触发和亚暴膨胀相过程中出现了多次具有不同特征的磁场偶极化现象.      

Nonlinear bending-torsion flutter experiments of a medium-aspect-ratio flexible wing model

In this research a two-motion medium-aspect-ratio straight flexible wing model was tested. Tests with the wing model were conducted in the subsonic wind tunnel of the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering at the Technion, Israel. Experimental results obtained for flutter and Limit Cycle Oscillations (LCO) of the wing model are presented. At least two types of flutter and postflutter LCO have been observed. Both types were characterized by coupling between the torsional and bending modes. The first type flutter was associated with coupling of the first bending and first torsional modes, whereas the second type was observed for coupling of the first torsional and second bending modes.     

Microbially induced iron precipitation associated with a neutrophilic spring at Borra Caves, Vishakhapatnam, India

The present investigation uncovers various pieces of evidence for the possible biologically induced mineralization in iron mats associated with a pH-neutral spring in the Borra caves, Vishakhapatnam, India. Electron microscopy [scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM)] demonstrated large numbers of (i) hollow tubes (diameter ～1?μm) resembling sheaths of the iron-oxidizing bacteria Leptothrix, (ii) thin (diameter <1?μm) solid fibers of uncertain origin, (iii) nanoscale subspherical to irregularly shaped particles encrusting tubes and fibers, and (iv) aggregates of broken and partially disintegrated sheaths, fibers, and particles embedded in extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) occasionally including microbial cells. X-ray microanalyses by energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) revealed that the mat accumulated largely Fe but also smaller amounts of Si and traces of P and Ca. Particles rich in Si and Al (possibly kaolinite) and Ca (carbonate) were also observed. High-resolution TEM/EDS of unstained ultrathin sections suggests that microbial sheaths were highly mineralized by amorphous to cryptocrystalline Fe-rich phases and less frequently by other fine-grained and fibrous authigenic claylike minerals. Total number of microorganisms in the iron mats was 5.8×10(5) cells, g sed(-1) (wet weight). Analysis of the 16S rRNA gene diversity revealed microorganisms assigned to eight different phyla [Proteobacteria (62%), Chloroflexi (8%), Bacteroidetes (7%), Planctomycetes (1%), Actinobacteria (5%), Acidobacteria (6%), Nitrospira (1%), Firmicutes (5%)]. Within the Proteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria was the predominant class, which accounted for 28% of the sequences. Within this class some obvious similarities between the obtained sequences and sequences from other cave systems could be seen, especially sequences affiliated with Leptothrix, Siderooxidans, Crenothrix, Comamonadaceae, Dechloromonas, and many uncultured Betaproteobacteria. Four (4%) of the sequences could not be assigned to phylum level but were affiliating with the candidate division TM7 (2%), candidate division OP11 (1%), and candidate division WWE3 (1%). The results allow us to infer a possible relationship of microbial sheaths, EPS, and the iron precipitates to microbial community diversity in the Borra cave springs. Understanding biogenic iron oxides in caves has important astrobiological applications as it provides a potential tool for the detection of extraterrestrial life.     

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

Realization of modes of satellite attitude motion with a small level of microaccelerations using electromechanical executive devices

Quasi-static microaccelerations are estimated for a satellite specially designed to perform space experiments in the field of microgravity. Three modes of attitude motion of the spacecraft are considered: passive gravitational orientation, orbital orientation, and semi-passive gravitational orientation. In these modes the lengthwise axis of the satellite is directed along the local vertical, while solar arrays lie in the orbit plane. The second and third modes are maintained using electromechanical executive devices: flywheel engines or gyrodynes. Estimations of residual microaccelerations are performed with the help of mathematical modeling of satellite’s attitude motion under the action of gravitational and aerodynamic moments, as well as the moment produced by the gyro system. It is demonstrated that all modes ensure rather low level of quasi-static microaccelerations on the satellite and provide for a fairly narrow region of variation for the vector of residual microacceleration. The semi-passive gravitational orientation ensures also a limited proper angular momentum of the gyro system.     

Activation of the tail open part during the magnetospheric storm

In each polar cap (PC) we mark out “old PC” observed during quiet time before the event under consideration, and “new PC” that emerges during the substorm framing the old one and expanding the PC total area. Old and new PCs are the areas for the magnetosphere old and new tail lobes, respectively. The new lobe variable magnetic flux Ψ₁ is usually assumed to be active, i.e. it provides the electromagnetic energy flux (Poynting flux) ɛ′ transport from solar wind (SW) into the magnetosphere. The old lobe magnetic flux Ψ₂ is supposed to be passive, i.e. it remains constant during the disturbance and does not participate in the transporting process which would mean the old PC electric field absolute screening from the convection electric field created by the magnetopause reconnection. In fact, screening is observed, but far from absolute. We suggest a model of screening and determine its quantitative characteristics in the selected superstorm. The coefficient of a screening is the β = Ψ₂/Ψ₀₂, where Ψ₀₂ = const is open magnetic flux through the old PC measured prior to the substorm, and Ψ₂ is variable magnetic flux through the same area measured during the substorm. We consider three various regimes of disturbance. In each, the coefficient β decreased during the loading phase and increased at the unloading phase, but the rates and amplitudes of variations exhibited a strong dependence on the regime. We interpreted decrease in β as a result of involving the old PC magnetic flux Ψ₂, which was considered to be constant earlier, in the Poynting flux ɛ′ transport process from solar wind into the magnetosphere. Transport process weakening at the subsequent unloading phase creates increase in β. Estimates showed that coefficient β during each regime and the computed Poynting flux ɛ′ varied manifolds. In general, unlike the existing substorm conception, the new scenario describes an unknown earlier of tail lobe activation process during a substorm growth phase that effectively increases the accumulated tail energy for the expansion and recovery phases.