The Sun's Role in Long-Term Climate Change

Evidence suggests that changes of solar irradiance in recent centuries have provided a significant climate forcing and that the sun has been one of the principal causes of long-term climate change. During the past two decades the solar forcing has been much smaller than the climate forcing caused by increasing greenhouse gases. But it is incorrect to assume that the sun necessarily will be an insignificant player in climate change of the 21st century. Indeed, I argue that moderate success in curtailing the growth of anthropogenic climate forcings could leave the sun playing a pivotal role in future climate change.     

The conundrum of software estimation models

There are many sophisticated models and methods for estimating the size, cost, and schedule of software projects. However, the ability to accurately estimate software cost, size, or schedule is still dubious. In general, the predictive accuracy of models for estimating software development cost and schedule has not been shown to be better than “within 25 percent of actual cost or schedule, about one half of the time”, especially for Department of Defense software efforts. The same is true for software size estimating models and methods, although there are some studies that have shown superior results. For software support (or maintenance) cost estimation, no model has been demonstrated to be accurate. This paper presents a summary of efforts performed to date which demonstrate the accuracy (or lack thereof) of software models. The results of several studies in the areas of software development cost and schedule estimation, size estimation, and support cost estimation are presented to show what these models can and cannot do. Some ideas for improvement are also presented, including the results of some studies which may lead to a resolution of the accuracy conundrum which currently exists     

Embedded information system re-engineering

Currently fielded embedded information systems face readiness challenges imposed by evolving missions and extended service lifespans. The ability to overcome these challenges is constrained by such factors as shrinking budgets, limited computational capacity and diminished manufacturing sources effects that impact both hardware and software options. Wholesale redevelopment is often cost prohibitive, particularly since large portions of embedded applications continue to fulfil mission requirements. Solutions must preserve prior investments while providing efficient pathways for continued technology refresh. A technology solution for affordable modernization of legacy system software is being development. The Embedded Information System Re-engineering (EISR) project is developing an automation-assisted JOVIAL-to-C re-engineering capability that permits simultaneous modernization of both the structure and source language of legacy embedded applications. Engineers will be able to apply the proven labor-saving visualization and analysis features of modern CASE tools to legacy JOVIAL applications. EISR will thus allow the DoD to recapture previous investments in proven legacy algorithms and mission capabilities while permitting the full exploitation of COTS economies of scale. This paper describes in brief the goals and objectives of the EISR project, and provides the current status of the EISR capability.     

Markets and Models for Large-Scale Courseware Development

Computer-aided instruction (CAI) has not achieved widespread use, even though experimental results have been promising, because of a complex of technical, economic, and social factors. The problems these factors produce might be overcome if a major ?market success? could be achieved with CAI systems. One potentially high-volume market, having probably a lower resistance to profound innovation than other sectors of education, is the junior college. To achieve a market success which would catalyze public and private investment to sustain the growth and dissemination of CAI requires technical solutions in the areas of hardware, software, and courseware. Courseware is a term designating the applications programs for CAI systems and associated textual, audio-visual, and other materials of instruction. Two different approaches to the production of courseware and their underlying philosophies are discussed and contrasted. The extent to which these different models of courseware design and development might lead toward the goal of mass dissemination is highlighted.     

Identification of nonlinear flight dynamics: theory and practice

This article presents an innovative time-domain nonlinear mapping-based identification method. The method reported is applied to identify the unknown parameters of multivariable dynamic systems which are mapped by nonlinear differential equations. A systematic identification method is introduced, and a novel algorithm is developed using nonlinear error maps. An analysis of parameter convergence is provided and the regions of convergence can be found using the second method of Lyapunov. Innovative nonquadratic Lyapunov functions are designed and used. Analytical and numerical studies are performed to illustrate and validate the identification concept. The unsteady flight of a high-alpha aircraft in the longitudinal axis is chosen as a nonlinear case study. The unknown parameters are identified. Simulation results show that the model dynamics match the experimental data. The reported example demonstrates that the time-domain nonlinear mapping-based identification method ensures robustness and reduces major shortcomings in stability, convergence, and computational efficiency compared with other algorithms available     

Industry application of behavioral science

One of the more significant errors in the history of science occurred during the “marginal revolution” in economics near the end of the nineteenth century. Rather than explicitly recognize in basic theory that the happiness we seek to maximize in life originates within oneself, the early theorists formulated their equations as though human satisfaction resided in external things-as in so much utility (economist's term for satisfaction) per pound of sugar. Over the past 125 years, economists have developed mainstream mathematical economics on this incorrect basis resulting in the ill-founded neoclassical Equilibrium Theory. Because of this error economic theory is fundamentally timeless. The present theory, in its canonical form, corrects the early marginalist's error by identifying utility (time-integrated pleasure) exclusively with the stream-of-consciousness attending (expected) mental and physical activity. Time is now explicit in basic theory, thereby allowing, for the first time, the substantive computer-modeling of time-dependent, small- and large-scale economic systems. Furthermore, this new approach is methodologically compatible with mainstream sociology and institutional economics, allowing increased interdisciplinary cooperation that may influence policy and thereby affect industry and markets. And safety engineering stands to benefit from the accommodation of neuropsychology in understanding human error in the supervision and control of technology     

An analysis of temperature fields in rotating fluid

A possible variant presented for solving the equation of motion of a rotating flow is more general with respect to the variants known in the literature. On the basis of the simultaneous solution of the equations of motion and energy, the temperature fields are determined under changes of the rotation nature.     

Some regularities in the relationship of limb coronal mass ejections with eruptive prominences and post-eruptive arcades

A positive correlation is shown to exist between the angular sizes (in the sky plane) of eruptive prominences and/or post-eruptive arcades and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with them. New regularities are found that characterize the relationship between the latitude of eruptive prominences (post-eruptive arcades) and the latitude position of CMEs associated with them in the field of view of a coronagraph. An interpretation of these regularities is given.     

Fiber-optic gyros and quartz accelerometers for motion control

In article the opportunity of use strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS) on the base of fiber-optic gyroscopes and quartz accelerometers corrected from star sensors and satellite navigation equipment (SNE) for perspective interplanetary spacecrafts motion control on phases of interplanetary trajectory insertion, trajectory correction, and braking during transition to Mars orbit is investigated. Results of onboard control complex accuracy characteristics estimation are presented at the given dynamic spacecraft scheme which is taking into account the liquid oscillations in tanks and structure elements elasticity. At modelling the errors of measuring devices installation, errors of SINS initial alignment and instrumental errors of SINS sensitive elements, variation of control engines parameters were taken into account. The structure of the developed complex of imitation modelling of interplanetary spacecraft controlled motion is resulted. Estimations of active flight legs realization accuracy were received by a method of statistical modelling of spacecraft controlled motion