Performance measure for Markovian switching systems using best-fitting Gaussian distributions

This paper considers the theoretical posterior Cramer-Rao lower bound (PCRLB) for the case of tracking a manoeuvring target with Markovian switching dynamics. In a recent article [2] it was proposed to calculate the PCRLB conditional on the manoeuvre sequence and then determine the bound as a weighted average, giving an unconditional PCRLB. However, we demonstrate that this approach can produce an overly optimistic lower bound, because the sequence of manoeuvres is implicitly assumed known. Motivated by this, we develop a general approach and derive a closed-form estimate of the PCRLB in the case of Markovian switching systems. The basis of the approach is to, at each time step, replace the multi-modal prior target probability density function (pdf) with a best-fitting Gaussian (BFG) approximation. We present a recursive formula for calculating the mean and covariance of this Gaussian distribution, and demonstrate how the covariance increases as a result of the potential manoeuvres. We are then able to calculate the PCRLB for this BFG model using an existing Riccati-like recursion. Because of the BFG approximation, we are no longer guaranteed a bound and so we refer to our estimate as an "error performance measure" rather than a bound. The presented approach is applied both to filtering and smoothing cases. The simulation results indicate a very close agreement between the proposed performance measure and the error performance of an interacting multiple model estimator.     

Space weather and commercial airlines

Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.     

Managing Complexity in an Autonomous Vehicle

Team Tormenta fielded an autonomous vehicle in the DARPA Grand Challenge 2005. Limiting the complexity of the autonomous system design, construction, and testing was crucial in rapidly designing a cost-effective working system. This approach allowed Team Tormenta to field a competitive vehicle on a low budget competing in the qualification trials.     

Model of effective heat conduction in polymer composite porous materials

A model and a technique for calculating polymer composite materials with an ellipsoid-shaped filler that take into account the influence of system porosity, particle anisodiametry and a boundary layer on the effective heat conduction are proposed. The results of calculations made by numerical methods are in a good agreement with the well-known statistic and Odolevskii, Maxwell, and Dul’nev matrix models.     

UWB Radar for Human Being Detection

UWB radar for detection and positioning of human beings in a complex environment has been developed and manufactured. The novelty of the radar lies in its large operational bandwidth (11.7 GHz at -10 dB level) combined with high time stability. Detection of respiratory movement of a person in laboratory conditions has been demonstrated. Based on experimental results, human being radar return has been analysed in the frequency band from 1 GHz to 12 GHz. The novel principle of human being detection is considered and verified experimentally.     

Education and public outreach program for IHY – A global approach

Education and public outreach (EPO) is one of the four components of the International Heliophysical Year (IHY). It is fundamental in achieving one of IHY’s primary objectives which is to “demonstrate the beauty, relevance and significance of Space and Earth science to the world.”     

Longitudinal distribution of thermospheric densities and ionization rates in the upper atmosphere of Mars at mid-latitude using MGS ACC data

The Accelerometer Experiment (ACC) onboard Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) measured 1600 density profiles in the upper atmosphere of Mars during aerobraking. These measurements reveal large-scale and small-scale structure in the thermosphere of Mars. Here, the measurements of mass density for 115 orbits (#P0670–P0789) from November 1 to 30, 1998, under spring equinox and medium solar activity conditions (average F_10.7 ∼ 137) during phase 2 of the aerobraking in the thermosphere of Mars at different altitudes and longitudes are presented for northern mid-latitude (17–42°N) in the dayside atmosphere using ACC onboard MGS. From these mass densities, the neutral densities of different gases are derived from their mixing ratios. Using these neutral densities, the longitudinal distribution of photoionization rates and photoelectron impact ionization rates are calculated at wavelength range 1–102.57 nm due to EUV and soft X-ray radiation under photochemical controlled region using Analytical Yield Spectrum approach (AYS). These conditions are appropriate for MGS Phase 2 aerobraking period from which the accelerometer data is used. Under the photochemical equilibrium condition, the electron density near the peak varies as the square root of the total peak ionization rate. Using this fact, an attempt is being made to estimate the mean primary and secondary peak electron density by averaging the longitudinal variations of total peak ionization rates in the northern mid-latitude (17–42°N) ionosphere of Mars, as there is no radio science measurement at this latitude region by MGS.     

Genetic susceptibility to radiation.

In the context of space radiation, it is important to know whether the human population includes genetically predisposed radiosensitive subsets. One possibility is that haploinsufficiency for ATM confers radiosensitivity, and this defect involves 1-3% of the population. Using knock-out mice we chose to study cataractogenesis in the lens and oncogenic transformation in mouse embryo fibroblasts to assay for effects of ATM deficiency. Radiation induced cataracts appeared earlier in the heterozygous versus wild-type animals following exposure to either gamma rays or 1 GeV/nucleon iron ions. In addition, it was found that embryo fibroblasts of Atm heterozygotes showed an increased incidence of oncogenic transformation compared with their normal litter-matched counterparts. From these data we suggest that Ataxia Telangiectasia heterozygotes could indeed represent a societally significant radio sensitive subpopulation. Knock-out mice are now available for other genes including BRCA1 and 2, and Mrad9. An exciting possibility is the creation of double heterozygotes for pairs of mutated genes that function in the same signal transduction pathway, and consequently confer even greater radiosensitivity.