Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

Checkout: A Changing Technology

On-board/in-flight checkout of future aerospace systems will necessitate a fundamental departure from today's design and checkout activities. The interrelationship of checkout, incorporated into prime vehicular functions, man as a subsystem, and standardization Of hardware/software must be considered as a functional and integral entity if the efforts of today's long-range planning are to become tomorrow's reality. This paper will describe future systems checkout, maintenance and support considerations, and actions and tentative measures necessary for implementation. The realization of the implementation of these concepts into functional elements will depend, accurately and economically, upon the degree of government perceptiveness and the extent of industrial support.     

Eye light flashes on the Mir space station

The phenomenon of light flashes (LF) in eyes for people in space has been investigated onboard Mir. Data on particles hitting the eye have been collected with the SilEye detectors, and correlated with human observations. It is found that a nucleus in the radiation environment of Mir has roughly a 1% probability to cause an LF, whereas the proton probability is almost three orders of magnitude less. As a function of LET, the LF probability increases above 10 keV/micrometer, reaching about 5% at around 50 keV/micrometer.     

The effect of realistic surface properties on low temperature space observatories

We highlight the effect on space-telescope temperatures of thedirectionality of the radiative properties of materials, by showing results from a Monte-Carlo simulation of telescope cooling. The need for further measurements of directional properties is stressed.