Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

One-kVA, Three-Phase dc-ac Inverter with Digital Control

This paper describes a method of applying digital techniques to the control of a 1-kVA three-phase dc-ac inverter to generate a sinusoidal 400-Hz output, using high-frequency bridge-chopper techniques. The model which was constructed used predominantly off-theshelf digital microcircuits and resulted in a device with an overall efficiency of 85 percent, in a 0.52 cubic-foot package which weighed 19.5 lbs. Sinusoidal output with less than 2 percent harmonic distortion at 115 volts line to neutral was obtained with 28 volts dc input.     

Erratum to: Determination of the Probability of Collision of Near-Earth Space Objects Taking into Account Form and Orientation

Cosmic Research - An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952521120030     

Estimation of Correlation Functions by Stochastic Approximation

Two techniques for estimating the correlation function of a stationary random process using the method of stochastic approximation are developed. Both provide updated estimates as successive T-second observations are processed. Both assume a functional form for the correlation function that depends on a number of parameters that are estimated. One technique is based on the mean-square error; the other maximizes a likelihood function. Examples are included.     

Optimum Number of Stages in a Staged Vehicle

The problem of optimum partitioning of a staged vehicle (SV) and determination of the minimal number of stages to provide for a maximum velocity in the vertical SV motion in a homogeneous gravity field is considered at a given value of payload mass.     

Remote upgrading of a space-borne instrument

The main purposes of experiment “Obstanovka” (“Environment” in Russian) consisting of several instruments are to measure a set of electromagnetic and plasma phenomena characterizing the space weather conditions, and to evaluate how such a big and highly energy consuming body as the International Space Station disturbs the surrounding plasma, and how the station itself is charged due to the operation of so many instruments, solar batteries, life supporting devices, etc. Two identical Langmuir electrostatic probes are included in the experiment “Obstanovka”. In this paper the Langmuir probes for “Obstanovka” experiment are described, including the choice of geometry (spherical or cylindrical), a more reliable method for the sweep voltage generation, an adaptive algorithm for the probe’s operation. Special attention is paid to the possibility for remote upgrading of the instrument from the ground using the standard communication channels.