Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Substorms in the inner plasma sheet

Thin Current Sheets (TCS) are regularly formed prior to substorm breakup, even in the near-Earth plasma sheet, as close as the geostationary orbit. A self-consistent kinetic theory describing the response of the plasma sheet to an electromagnetic perturbation is given. This perturbation corresponds to an external forcing, for instance caused by the solar wind (not an internal instability). The equilibrium of the configuration of this TCS in the presence of a time varying perturbation is shown to produce a strong parallel thermal anisotropy (T T) of energetic electrons and ions (E>50keV) as well as an enhanced diamagnetic current carried by low energy ions (E<50keV). Both currents tend to enhance the confinement of this current sheet near the magnetic equator. These results are compared with data gathered by GEOS-2 at the geostationary orbit, where the magnetic signatures of TCS, and parallel anisotropics are regularly observed prior to breakup. By ensuring quasi-neutrality everywhere we find, when low frequency electromagnetic perturbations are applied, that although the magnetic field line remains an equipotential to the lowest order in T_e/T_i, a field-aligned potential drop exists to the next order in (T_e/T_i). Thus the development of a TCS implies the formation of a field-aligned potential drop ( few hundred volts) to ensure the quasi-neutrality everywhere. For an earthward directed pressure gradient, a field-aligned electric field, directed towards the ionosphere, is obtained, on the western edge of the perturbation (i.e. western edge of the current sheet). Thus field aligned beams of electrons are expected to flow towards the equatorial region on the western edge of the current sheet. We study the stability of these electron beams and show that they are unstable to “High Frequency” (HF) waves. These “HF” waves are regularly observed at frequencies of the order of the proton gyrofrequency (f_H+) just before, or at breakup. The amplitude of these HF waves is so large that they can produce a strong pitch-angle diffusion of energetic ions and a spatial diffusion that leads to a reduction of the diamagnetic current. The signature of a fast ion diffusion is indeed regularly observed during the early breakup; it coincides with the sudden development of large amplitude transient fluctuations, ballooning modes, observed at much lower frequencies (fH+). These results suggest that the HF waves, generated by field-aligned electron beams, provide the dissipation which is necessary to destabilize low frequency (ballooning) modes.     

Improved interpretation of solar wind ion measurements via high-resolution magnetic field data

The Wind   spacecraft’s Faraday cups (FC) continue to produce high-quality, in situ observations of thermal protons (i.e., ionized hydrogen) and α$\alpha$-particles (i.e., fully ionized helium) in the solar wind. By fitting a Wind/FC ion spectrum with a model velocity distribution function (VDF) for each particle species, values for density, bulk velocity, and temperature can be inferred. Incorporating measurements of the background magnetic field from the Wind Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) allows perpendicular and parallel temperature components to be separated. Prior implementations of this analysis averaged the higher-cadence Wind/MFI measurements to match that of the Wind/FC ion spectra. However, this article summarizes recent and extensive revisions to the analysis software that, among other things, eliminate such averaging and thereby account for variations in the direction of the magnetic field over the time taken to measure the ions. A statistical comparison reveals that the old version consistently underestimates the temperature anisotropy of ion VDF’s: averaging over fluctuations in the magnetic field essentially blurs the perpendicular and parallel temperature components, which makes the plasma seem artificially more isotropic. The new version not only provides a more accurate dataset of ion parameters (which is well suited to the study of microkinetic phenomena), it also demonstrates a novel technique for jointly processing particle and field data. Such methods are crucial to heliophysics as wave-particle interactions are increasingly seen as playing an important role in the dynamics of the solar wind and similar space plasmas.     

Storing and processing astrometric and photometric data on NEA: Current state and future in Russia

Numerous discoveries of asteroids unknown earlier led to a multiple increase in the number of information on small bodies of the Solar System. Huge volumes of information accumulated and obtained at observations of objects approaching the Earth’s orbit require storing and prompt processing, presenting more and more possibilities for studying distributions of small bodies of the Solar System and ways of their evolution. That is why development of information systems which will contain large volumes of data on small bodies of the Solar System and facilities for processing these data is actual and promising direction of activity.     

Optimization of Low-Thrust Interplanetary Transfers

A method for approximate analytical optimization of low-thrust transfers, described in [1] and based on linearization of the equations of motion, is considered. A more precise method of reducing the errors due to linearization is suggested. The method of optimization is generalized for the case of a mission to several celestial bodies.     

Spectral Characteristics of Self-Emission from Electric Thrusters with Closed Electron Drift in the Radio-Frequency Band for Various Propellants

Cosmic Research - We have considered procedure and results of the experimental study for spectral characteristics of self emission from laboratory models of electric thrusters with closed electron...     

The CPR approach to space sustainability: Commentaries on Weeden and Chow

Space sustainability is emerging as a core element of national policy and international initiatives. At this time, however, a coherent strategy and supporting policies have not been developed. To initiate a conversation to develop such a strategy, the authors have applied the principles developed by Elinor Ostrom for terrestrial common-pool resource (CPR) governance to near-Earth orbit in space. A concern arises as to whether Ostrom's eight principles are a good “fit” for application to space CPR because of the unique physical characteristics of space and the legal underpinnings of our presence there. This commentary will address selected issues raised by Weeden and Chow, and suggest alternative ways to approach near-Earth orbit sustainability.     

Program goals for the NASA/NOAA Earth Observation Program derived from a stakeholder value network analysis

The 2007 US National Research Council Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space was the first consensus perspective produced by the US Earth Science community of the relative priorities among a sequence of 17 satellite missions over the course of the next decade. However, the Decadal Survey only captured the perspective of the science community, leading to questions about the inclusion of broader priorities from constituent communities and stakeholders. We present a stakeholder value network analysis for the NASA/NOAA Earth Observation Program. The analysis includes a rigorous articulation of the needs and objectives of 13 major stakeholders and a complete stakeholder value network with 190 individual “value flows” that capture the interactions between all the stakeholders. It produces a novel stakeholder map, graphically indicating the outputs most likely to create a lasting Earth Science program. The most important value loops and program outputs are used to derive a set of high-level program goals that suggest what NASA and NOAA should do, as well as how they should conduct business. The analysis concludes that international partnerships represent a strong potential partner for certain science missions with greater potential value delivery than currently-prioritized efforts with defense stakeholders and concludes that weather and land-use missions, in addition to climate missions, should be given highest priority; water, human health, and solid Earth missions should be given lower priority based on each science category's potential for delivering value to the entire stakeholder network.     

Short-term variation of cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy and solar activity

A correlative analysis has been made between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity (sunspot numbers) during high amplitude days for the period 1991–1995. The high amplitude days with the time of maximum in the corotational/azimuthal direction do not indicate any significant correlation with solar activity. The diurnal amplitude significantly remains constant and high (0.5%) during the entire period. Our observations suggest that the direction of the anisotropy of high amplitude anisotropic wave train events contribute significantly to the short-term behavior of the cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy. The correlation coefficient is found to remain positive during solar activity maximum for all the high amplitude anisotropic wave train events.     

Calculation of quasisynchronous orbits of a spacecraft around Phobos for solving the problem of landing on its surface

The problem of selecting quasi-synchronous orbits of a spacecraft around Phobos is considered. These quasi-synchronous orbits are far (with respect to the Hill’s sphere) quasi-satellite orbits with retrograde rotation in the restricted three body problem. The orbit should pass through a given point at a specified time instant. It should also possess a property of minimum distance from the Phobos surface at every passage above the region of planned landing. The equations of dynamics are represented in the form describing the orbit as a combination of motions in two drifting ellipses, inner and outer ellipses. The center of the outer ellipse is located on the inner ellipse. A formula is derived that relates averaged values of half-axes of the inner and outer ellipses. It is used for construction of the first approximation of numerically designed orbit, which makes it possible to simplify and speed up the computing process. The tables of initial conditions obtained as a result of calculations are presented.